One of the biggest blockbuster trades in WNBA history happened during the offseason, when the Los Angeles Sparks dealt Jewell Loyd to the Las Vegas Aces and the second overall pick to the Seattle Storm in exchange for three-time All-Star guard Kelsey Plum. Los Angeles was coming off a miserable 8-32 season and desperately needed help, and the Sparks clearly decided that bringing the 30-year-old back to her home state was the best they could do.
That deal has paid off so far; through the first two games of the WNBA season, Plum is averaging 27.5 points, 5.5 assists, and 3.0 steals per game on 48.5-46.7-88.9 shooting splits. Los Angeles will travel to face the Phoenix Mercury tonight at 10 p.m. ET.
The Sparks are 5.5-point underdogs at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the point total set for 160.5. Below, I’ve detailed my favorite prop bets centered around Plum.
Best Kelsey Plum Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Kelsey Plum U22.5 Points (-105)
The Mercury were ridiculously dominant on defense in their first game of the season, holding Nneka Ogwumike, Skylar Diggins-Smith, and the Seattle Storm to just 59 points, the second-lowest team total of any game so far this regular season. In that game, the Storm shot just 33.0% from the field and 17.6% from beyond the arc, part of which was a function of luck and partially a function of aggressive closeouts, switches, and strong post defense by center Kalani Brown, who, at six-foot-seven, is tied for the second-tallest active player in the WNBA. Between Brown and six-time All-Defensive honoree Alyssa Thomas, Phoenix’s strong defense is likely sustainable.
Plus, while Plum scored 37 points in her Los Angeles debut, that dropped to just 18 in her second game as her minutes dropped from 40 to 34 and she shot it fairly inefficiently from within the arc. Her 30.1% usage rate so far would be by far the highest mark in her career, as would her average of 37 minutes per game, and both numbers are unsustainable over the course of the longest season in WNBA history, especially for a 30-year-old with an Achilles tear in her history. She only scored more than 23 points seven times in 38 starts last season and only got there 10 times even in the 2022 season, when she finished third in MVP voting. Yes, she was surrounded by more talent on the Aces than she is now, but 23 points is an extremely high bar.
Kelsey Plum U5.5 Assists (+100)
Last season, the Mercury weren’t a great defensive team, having allowed the second-most assists per game, but their roster changed dramatically over the offseason and they allowed Seattle to amass just 16 during the season-opening game. That mostly has to do with Thomas, who came over from the Connecticut Sun during the offseason, and it’s not a coincidence that Thomas’ Sun allowed the second-fewest assists in the league last season. Satou Sabally and Brown both came over from the Dallas Wings, who weren’t great at stopping opposing playmakers last season, but that wasn’t entirely their faults; Sabally graded out as a good defender in 2023 before missing the first half of the 2024 season with a shoulder injury and opponents recorded just 25.7 assists per 100 possessions with Brown on the floor, the fourth-lowest rate on the team and about an average mark league-wide. Phoenix’s new-look defense should be good enough to shut down Plum and her supporting cast.
