The Reds have won four in a row with Will Benson launching a home run in each of those contests. All of those games were in the friendly confines of Great American “Small” Park, though. The venue shifts to Pittsburgh on Friday, where PNC Park is rated the toughest for home runs by left-handed batters.
The O/U is currently set at 8, while the Reds are -130 on the moneyline. The Pirates are +110. The Reds are +136 at -1.5 runs while the Pirates are -162 at +1.5.
Let’s get into a preview for this game and some picks that you can take on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Pirates vs. Reds prediction, preview
Nick Lodolo has pitched well so far this season. His FIP is 3.85 and he’s only walked nine batters and allowed six home runs in 52.2 innings. Unfortunately, the strikeout rate is only 19%. Prior to his injuries, Lodolo was posting 29% strikeout rates. Lodolo has been a little fortunate with a .266 BABIP, which has helped fuel the 3.42 ERA.
Pittsburgh is third in strikeouts against left-handed pitching while being 25th in both ISO and wOBA, so the matchup is an excellent one. In addition, PNC Park is much more pitcher-friendly than Great American “Small” Park.
Mitch Keller has been very good as well. Unlike Lodolo, Keller’s been a little unlucky, as the 4.15 ERA is higher than the 3.61 FIP. The strikeout prowess has been wide throughout Keller’s career. During his rookie season, the K/9 was 12.19. In 2023, that number was a healthy 9.73 over 194.1 innings. For most of his career, though, the K/9 has been in the 7-8 area. Through 52 innings this season, it’s at 7.44, the second-lowest of his career. Keller has done a masterful job of keeping the ball in the yard, yielding only four home runs so far.
In terms of bullpens, Pittsburgh is 15th in FIP while Cincinnati is 24th.
I think this is an offensively-challenged game dominated by the pitchers.
Pirates vs. Reds picks, best bet
Best Bet: Under 8 runs -108
These teams played a three-game set in Cincinnati back in mid-April. In that hitter’s ballpark, the teams combined for eight, seven and four runs. This series is in Pittsburgh, a pitcher-friendly park, with two guys on the mound that have been spinning the ball effectively so far this season. Under 2.5 earned runs are -175 for Lodolo and -145 for Keller.
Strong Lean: Nick Lodolo 7+ Strikeouts +180
I mentioned above that Lodolo’s strikeout rate has been poor this season. That said, he struck out seven and nine batters in two of the last four contests. One of those teams was Atlanta and it is 11th in strikeouts against left-handed pitching. The nine-strikeout game was against the Rockies in Colorado, a team that is second in strikeouts. Pittsburgh is third in strikeouts.
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