I mean, somebody has to win this game. We’ve got the inverse of another matchup tonight, in which the Trail Blazers and Grizzlies will seek to hand out the other’s first L of the season.
Thursday’s matchup at Smoothie King Center will finally put one of these two struggling teams in the win column. Despite their identical 0-4 records, New Orleans has been considerably more competitive, losing its first three games by a combined 10 points before falling 104-91 to Denver on Wednesday. Sacramento, meanwhile, has lost its four games by a combined 71 points.
DraftKings Sportsbook has New Orleans favored by 5.5 points (-102), with Sacramento at +195 on the Moneyline and the total set at 236.5. The Pelicans will be playing on the second night of a back-to-back, while Jordan Poole (ankle) is doubtful and Yves Missi (knee) remains out. Sacramento will remain without Keegan Murray (ankle), Maxime Raynaud (knee), Dylan Cardwell (calf) and Ben Simmons (Achilles), leaving an already struggling defense with limited frontcourt depth.
Let’s break down tonight’s matchup.
Sacramento Kings at New Orleans Pelicans preview, prediction
Sacramento’s disastrous start continued Tuesday with a 130-103 loss to San Antonio, marking its second defeat by at least 25 points this season. The Kings are averaging just 107.8 PPG, ranking 28th, while surrendering 125.5 points per game. Their 124.6 defensive rating ranks 29th, and their -17.6 net rating is dead last. It looks to be another dreadful season loading up for the Kings, but it has at least a few silver linings. Zach LaVine has been excellent offensively, averaging 27.3 PPG on 52.2% shooting, while Domantas Sabonis is putting up a robust 19.0 PPG, 16.5 RPG and 7.3 APG. Rookie Darius Acuff Jr. has also shown some scoring potential, but then again, his 21.5 PPG is coming alongside 23.3 shots a game on 34.4% shooting.
New Orleans have also had some standout individual performances alongside their winless record. Zion Williamson has been the team’s most consistent offensive weapon, averaging 21.8 PPG on a terrific 60.4% shooting while also recording an impressive 2.8 SPG. He scored a season-high 25 points on 10-of-14 shooting against Denver on Wednesday, his third 20-point performance in four games. We’re all wondering whether this could finally be the season in which Zion plays a healthy number of games; he did suit up for 62 last season, but in his previous six seasons in the NBA, he’s appeared in over 30 games just twice.
Unfortunately, Trey Murphy III has been a disappointment. After leading the Pelicans with 21.5 PPG last season, he’s down to just 13.0 PPG through four appearances. He managed six points on 2-of-7 shooting Wednesday and has scored fewer than 12 points in three of his four games. He’s only handling a 17.1% usage rate, compared to his 22.7% last season and 23.7% a season before that. Something tells me that the Pels will have to make more of an effort to involve him if they want to win some games.
Kings at Pelicans pick, best bet
The biggest advantage for New Orleans comes from Sacramento’s inability to defend efficiently (or at all), particularly with its depleted frontcourt. The Kings are allowing opponents to shoot 49.5% from the field while surrendering 49.0 RPG, the fourth-highest in the entire league. Opponents have also attempted 26.8 free throws per game against Sacramento, creating plenty of opportunities for a player with Williamson’s physicality and ability to bruise defenders near the rim. Zion has been remarkably efficient this season, converting 32 of his 53 FGA while averaging 6.3 free throw attempts per game. He’s also shooting 80% from the charity stripe, a substantial improvement from last season’s 71.6%. We Zion truthers are hoping that can last. His ability to generate offense around the basket should be particularly valuable against a Sacramento squad averaging a league-low 2.5 BPG. The caveat is that New Orleans will be playing on the second night of a back-to-back, but even an 80% capacity Pelicans team will be able to manufacture at least some efficient looks against this poor of a defensive unit, especially when it comes to Williamson, who’s absolutely unstoppable near the rim at the moment.
Sabonis is an outstanding rebounder, but that doesn’t exactly translate into rim protection, having failed to record a block in all four of the Kings’ games this season. With Murray, Raynaud, and Cardwell unavailable, the Kings don’t have many appealing alternatives to contain the Pelicans’ drives. This should be an opportunity for New Orleans to establish its offense in the paint rather than relying excessively on outside shooting.
This brings us back to Murphy, whose poor start has been particularly frustrating because his shooting is still fine. He’s converting 37.5% of his attempts from deep, which is nearly identical to last season’s 37.9%. The issue, as mentioned before, lies in his usage rate and involvement. He’s taking just 11 FGA compared to 15.9 from last season, and all seven of his attempts against the Nuggets yesterday came from distance.
The Pelicans will have to get Murphy back into the game flow, and the matchup tonight is a good opportunity to do so. The Kings have surrendered 15.0 made treys per game on 37.3% shooting, giving Murphy a chance to regain some offensive rhythm. He demonstrated his scoring ability with 26 points against Denver on Saturday, so there’s reason to believe his early struggles aren’t entirely indicative of any kind of slump.
Sacramento hasn’t shown enough defensive resilience to suggest that this game will be competitive. The Kings have lost every game by at least eight points, despite strong individual performances from LaVine and Sabonis. It’s understandable that they are force feeding shots to rookie Acuff Jr., but this likely will not lead to winning basketball.
New Orleans has been significantly more competitive against stronger opponents, and Williamson’s efficient scoring gives the Pelicans a reliable way to exploit Sacramento’s defense.
