Two of the NBA’s remaining undefeated teams, the Grizzlies and Trail Blazers, will clash tonight at Moda Center. Ja Morant gets his first shot at his former team since getting traded to Portland this summer. The Trail Blazers have enjoyed a fantastic start to the season, but Memphis has been equally impressive in the – can we say it yet – Ty Jerome era.
DraftKings Sportsbook has Portland favored by 7.5 points (-110), with the Grizzlies at +225 on the Moneyline and the total set at 232.5. Portland remains without Shaedon Sharpe following right meniscus surgery, while Memphis enters the contest with no reported injuries.
Let’s break down tonight’s matchup.
Memphis Grizzlies at Portland Trail Blazers preview, prediction
The Grizzlies have won their first four games under head coach Tuomas Iisalo, including three consecutive road victories over the Warriors, Kings, and Jazz. Ty Jerome has been tremendous since taking over the starting point guard position, averaging an astounding 29.8 PPG and 6.3 APG on 50.6% shooting. His 45-point explosion against Utah in the season opener is responsible for his huge scoring average, but he’s not the only player contributing to Memphis’ success. Rookie Cameron Boozer has emerged as an early contender for ROTY, averaging 15.3 PPG and 10.5 RPG. Second-year wing Cedric Coward has also looked good, giving the Grizzlies some additional scoring and rebounding. The Grizzlies have been particularly impressive defensively, allowing just 107.0 PPG, the fourth-fewest in the NBA.
Portland has been even more explosive offensively, leading the league with 129.3 PPG through three games. Damian Lillard’s return and Morant’s arrival have transformed the backcourt, while Deni Avdija continues to thrive as a versatile offensive threat. Jrue Holiday has also been a fantastic addition to the rotation. The six time All-Defensive Team selection is averaging 14.0 PPG, 4.0 APG, and 1.3 SPG while committing just 0.3 turnovers per game. He’s absorbing Shaedon Sharpe’s minutes, and has looked fantastic while doing so, as evidenced by his recent 22 points on 8-of-12 shooting in Tuesday’s 136-129 victory over the Lakers.
Unfortunately, the same can’t be said for Scoot Henderson, who looked terrible in that same game. The former third overall pick has struggled to establish himself in Portland’s crowded backcourt, averaging just 7.0 PPG and 2.0 APG alongside 3.0 turnovers in 18.8 MPG. He’s shooting a dreadful 33.3% from the field and has scored just six combined points over his last two appearances. It’s a disappointing development for a lottery pick guard, although the arrival of Morant and Holiday has undoubtedly complicated his path to meaningful minutes. But it’s not like Micah Nori has any reason to roll out Henderson for meaningful playing time anyway, with his arsenal of talented guards. The Blazers have looked like real contenders so far, surviving another Luka Doncic detonation (41 points, nine assists, and six triples).
Grizzlies at Trail Blazers pick, best bet
Despite both teams being undefeated, the 7.5 spread feels like too large a gap. The Trail Blazers lead the NBA with a 124.4 offensive rating, but it’s worth examining how they’re doing it. Their season began with a 41-point demolition of the Suns, during which the game was completely over by the end of the first quarter. They followed that up with an eight-point victory over Sacramento and a seven-point win against Los Angeles. Portland’s offense has been fantastic, but that opening blowout has significantly influenced its early-season offensive numbers.
Defensively, they’ve been respectable, even if their starting backcourt of Lillard and Morant doesn’t exactly look imposing. They’re both undersized and have historically been poor defenders, but this team has done alright with 110.1 DEFRTG, which ranks 11th in the NBA. Holiday and Toumani Camara are certainly chipping in here. Still, this ranking is likely inflated by holding Phoenix to just 83 points in the season opener; this team still surrendered 120 against the Kings and 129 against the Lakers. I see this team as being average defensively due to their porous backcourt, even if they do have strong defensive pieces like Donovan Clingan, Holiday, Camara, and Robert Williams III.
Memphis, meanwhile, ranks sixth in defensive rating (105.2) and has held three of its four opponents to 108 points or fewer. The Grizzlies are allowing opponents to shoot just 32.4% from trey, which could present problems for a Portland offense attempting 43.7 of them per game. The Trail Blazers have connected on 38.9% of those attempts, but maintaining that efficiency against a disciplined defense will be tough.
Memphis also has the personnel to challenge Portland inside. Zach Edey is averaging 2.0 BPG despite playing just 21.4 MPG, and Boozer has already established himself as a productive rebounder. The Grizzlies are pulling down 14.5 offensive rebounds per game, giving themselves additional second chance opportunities. Portland has been excellent on the defensive glass, allowing opponents just 9.7 offensive boards per game, so this should be an especially interesting battle as Edey and Clingan jostle for interior control.
The Grizzlies still have areas of concern. Jerome’s early scoring production is unlikely to remain at nearly 30 PPG indefinitely, and Portland has several capable perimeter defenders, including Holiday and Camara who will make things difficult for Jerome.
There’s also the matter of Portland’s tremendous guard play. Morant’s ability to penetrate while letting Lillard roam around the perimeter as a perpetual deep threat is terrifying for Memphis’ defense, which has to struggle with these two highly mobile guards with complementary skill sets while also trying to draw up a plan to deal with Deni Avdija. Portland could also exploit Memphis’ 26.8 fouls per game, as they are averaging 29.7 FTA.
Still, the Grizzlies have demonstrated just enough defensive consistency and offensive balance to remain competitive. They’ve covered the spread in all four games, including three road victories, and have had an additional day of rest entering Thursday’s matchup. Portland may ultimately have more talent, but it should be a lot closer than the spread suggests.
