The Montreal Canadiens visit the Dallas Stars on Thursday night, with puck drop set for 8:00 p.m. ET at American Airlines Center. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Dallas is a -166 favorite on the Moneyline, while the total is set at O/U 6.5 goals.
Below, I’ll break down the matchup and provide my top Stars vs. Canadiens prediction and best bet.
Stars vs. Canadiens Odds
| Market | Montreal Canadiens | Dallas Stars |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +140 | -166 |
| Puck Line | +1.5 (-180) | -1.5 (+150) |
| Total | Over 6.5 (+114) | Under 6.5 (-135) |
Stars vs. Canadiens Betting Preview
Dallas Stars Outlook
No team has been harder to score on than Dallas, which has allowed a league-low 2.00 goals per game and owns the NHL’s best penalty kill at 92.9%. The Stars give up just 22.2 shots per game, the second-fewest in the league, and their 2.03 xGoals against per 60 at 5v5 are tied for the fewest. They faltered slightly in their most recent outing, losing 5-1 to New Jersey on Tuesday, which snapped their five-game winning streak.
Dallas hasn’t been nearly as dangerous offensively, ranking 25th at 2.67 goals per game and tied for 24th in 5v5 xGoals per 60 (2.23). Mikko Rantanen leads the team with 14 points on the top line with Wyatt Johnston and Sam Steel, while Jason Robertson has 13 points and a team-high 39 shots on the second line with Roope Hintz and Tyler Seguin. Radek Faksa is out, and Esa Lindell and Matt Duchene both remain on injured reserve.
Jake Oettinger is confirmed to start after going 6-2-1 with a 1.43 GAA, .929 SV% and three shutouts. He hasn’t allowed more than three goals in any of his nine starts, has held opponents to two or fewer in seven of them, and ranks third in GSAx and fifth in SV% above expected.
Montreal Canadiens Outlook
Montreal has won three straight on the road by a combined 8-2 over Chicago, Winnipeg and St. Louis, and it’s 4-1-1 on the road this season. Jacob Fowler started all three of those wins, including a 46-save shutout in St. Louis on Tuesday, and the Canadiens will also still be without Nick Suzuki, who leads the team with 12 points in nine games.
Even without Suzuki, Montreal has been one of the better possession teams in the league, posting a 54.4% 5v5 Corsi% that ranks sixth. The power play is another story, converting just 11.4% of its opportunities, good for 29th in the NHL, which makes Dallas’s top-ranked penalty kill look terrifying. Cole Caufield leads the team with six goals and 39 shots on the top line with Alex Newhook and Juraj Slafkovsky, and Lane Hutson has added 10 points from the blue line.
Jakub Dobes gets the start in place of Fowler after going 1-2-2 with a 4.47 GAA and .847 SV%. He may have looked strong during Montreal’s postseason run last season, but he has come back down to Earth, having allowed four goals or more in four of his five starts. Plus, his -6.3 GSAx and SV% above expected rank 69th and 64th, respectively, among 71 goalies.
Stars vs. Canadiens Prediction and Best Bet
Dobes gives Dallas an elite matchup, but the Stars haven’t been involved in high-scoring games thus far. Dallas games have finished with six goals or fewer in 11 of 12 this season, with a 6-3 win over the Islanders as the only exception, and Oettinger hasn’t allowed more than three goals in a start all season. Montreal drives possession well, sure, but without Suzuki and with its poor power play running into the league’s best penalty kill, I’d expect another low-scoring night in Dallas.
Best Bet: Under 6.5 Goals (-135)
Advanced stats courtesy of MoneyPuck.
