By all accounts, it’s been more or less a disastrous season for Manchester City. The four-time defending champions didn’t put up much of a fight in their quest to extend their unprecedented winning streak to five, as they sit a distant fourth in the table with two weeks to play, firmly in control for a Champions League place next season but their place not yet confirmed. City even drew with bottom-of-the-table Southampton last week, mustering no goals from 72% possession and 26 shots.
Still, even in this miserable season, Pep Guardiola’s men have managed to win one trophy — knocking out the red side of Manchester on penalties in the Community Shield — and sit on the precipice of another, the FA Cup final tomorrow at Wembley Stadium. Their journey through the FA Cup has been easy — in five matches, they’ve given up just three goals and scored 17 — and all they need to do to win another trophy is beat Crystal Palace, which sits just 12th in the Premier League table. The Eagles, too, have been dominant in the tournament thus far, giving up just a single goal against Millwall and scoring 12.
At DraftKings Sportsbook, Man City is a -125 favorite to win the tie in regular time, with Palace at +320 and +290 that the teams will require extra time and/or penalties. City is also a -245 favorite to lift the cup, with the Eagles at +190. The winner is guaranteed a place in the 2025-26 Europa League league phase.
Crystal Palace vs. Manchester City prediction, pick
Despite the slip-up last week against the Saints, City’s status as the clear favorite is valid. In that game, Southampton set up with a five-in-the-back formation and parked the bus, allowing City to get off a bunch of low-quality chances. That’s the kind of strategy that might work for an already-relegated side hoping for merely a point to pass Derby County for the worst season in Premier League history, but unless Crystal Palace hopes to take City to penalties and take its chances in a shootout, it can’t afford to allow 72% possession and attempt just two shots.
Just look at City’s form prior to that aberration; it came into the Southampton match on the heels of six wins in seven matches, including wins over Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest in the FA Cup, and although the exception was an embarrassing 0-0 draw against 16th-placed Manchester United, the Red Devils always show up for derby week. This impressive stretch came with Erling Haaland out after suffering an ankle injury in the FA Cup quarterfinal tie against Bournemouth. Haaland ghosted against the Saints in his first match back from injury, uncorking just one shot worth 0.1 expected goals, but surely Guardiola just has to be happy that he was able to play all 90 minutes. Given how good Omar Marmoush was in his absence — the Egyptian has six goals in 12 Premier League starts — it’s worth wondering whether Guardiola will play a 4-1-2-1-2 and have Marmoush and Haaland up front together.
Palace has been a lot more up and down in the English top flight, losing badly to a pair of top-tier clubs — including a 5-0 defeat to Newcastle United in which they produced better chances but couldn’t finish where the Magpies were clinical — before drawing three straight matches against solid clubs and finally bludgeoning Tottenham in a 2-0 game that wasn’t nearly as close as the scoreline suggests. Eberechi Eze netted a brace in that game and now has at least one goal in each of his last three matches. The man up front, Jean-Philippe Mateta, was also fairly unlucky not to score in that match. The Eagles’ recent stretch also includes the FA Cup semifinal against Aston Villa, in which they were out-possessed and conceded 12 corners but defended well and struck on the counter-attack to win, 3-0. That’s the kind of formula that they could use to pull off the upset against City.
Both teams are getting healthier headed into tomorrow’s match. Palace defensive midfielder Adam Wharton has been cleared to go after missing the win over Spurs with an ankle injury. The complete wild card lies with City, though; defensive midfielder Rodri, who won the Ballon d’Or for his exploits in 2023-24, has been making progress in his recovery from a torn ACL that he suffered in September. It seems that the Spaniard is unlikely to play, but if he were to surprisingly suit up and played anywhere close to full fitness, it would spell disaster for an Eagles side that already ranks fifth-to-last in take-on success rate and also ranks near the bottom of the league in goal creating actions and goals scored.
With or without Rodri, I can’t see City going completely without a major trophy this season, even against a team that has been as good in the cup as Palace has. Haaland was quiet in his first game, but I see him breaking through tonight. Palace’s defense is good, but the club lacks experience in big games, and no English club has any more of that than Guardiola’s men.
