The magic of the Premier League is that all 38 games matter, and there are several different honors that teams can fight for. Of course, the shiny piece of silverware that every team fights for is the league trophy, which Liverpool claimed several weeks ago. But simply qualifying for the Champions League matters, both financially and as a matter of pride. With the tournament’s expansion to 36 teams, six Premier League teams will play in next season’s league phase.
Chelsea are currently in a pole position to nab one of the five league slots and join the Europa League winner in the continent’s premier competition. Win each of their final two games, and they’re almost assured of a top-five spot, unless Aston Villa wins both of their games by a margin 12 goals greater than the Blues’. Tomorrow’s 3:15 p.m. ET clash against Manchester United is paramount.
At DraftKings Sportsbook, Chelsea is a -235 favorite to beat the Red Devils, with United at +600 and a draw at +400. Blues fans should also keep an eye out at Villa’s scoreline against Tottenham, which will kick off 45 minutes before Chelsea’s match does. The Blues’ Matchweek 38 match against seventh-placed Nottingham Forest will also be paramount, especially since the Foresters will travel this weekend to 15th-placed West Ham United.
Manchester United at Chelsea prediction, pick
Despite disappointing seasons overall for both Big Six clubs, they both have European finals to prepare for. Chelsea made easy work of the Europa Conference League, never being seriously challenged on its way to a date against Spanish outfit Real Betis on May 28 in Białystok, Poland. Meanwhile, although United had a more difficult time in the Europa League, it will face a fellow English club, Tottenham Hotspur, in the final next Wednesday. With two games in six days, it’s unclear whether Ruben Amorim will rotate his squad, but the Europa League is certainly the priority, given that the winner will play in the Champions League and the loser will be out of European football entirely.
Amorim will likely play it cautious with some of his injured players, including Leny Yoro and Matthijs de Ligt, and it’s possible that important first-team players like captain Bruno Fernandes — who leads the league in key passes and ranks second in shot-creating actions — might not play the entire game. Fernandes is the joint-leading scorer in the Europa League, so the 30-year-old attacking midfielder absolutely has to be fully fit and on top of his game against Spurs. Rasmus Højlund will almost certainly start up front with Joshua Zirkzee out for the season and Amad Diallo likely to take a seat early, but it’s been a disappointing campaign for the young Dane.
Regardless of what lineup Amorim trots out there, I don’t think it will stack up to Chelsea’s. United has absolutely nothing to play for in the league, doomed to its worst league finish in its history, and where it ultimately finishes between 13th and 17th is pretty much irrelevant. United has taken just one point from its last five games — fewer even than long-since-relegated Southampton — and seems to have given up domestically long ago. Getting 20 shots off against West Ham was nice, as was racking up 2.1 expected-goals worth of chances…managing to net zero of them was not. The last time the Red Devils beat a team that will be playing in the Premier League next season came all the way back on January 26, when they edged out Fulham, 1-0.
That said, the Blues aren’t in great form, either. They had a must-win match last weekend against Newcastle and didn’t put up much of a fight in the 2-0 defeat, conceding in the second minute and again in the 90th. They managed to put just three of their 10 shots on target — none worth more than 0.32 post-shot expected goals — and allowed the Magpies to complete 53 progressive passes to their 40. Worse still, they played most of the match with 10 men after striker Nicolas Jackson was dealt a red card after hitting Harvey Barnes with his elbow in a 33rd-minute aerial duel. Jackson will be suspended for the remainder of the season, and Pedro Neto — a less clinical finisher than the Senegalese youngster — will likely start up front, unless Enzo Maresca wants to give 19-year-old Tyrique George a chance.
On the bright side for the Blues, Cole Palmer bagged his first goal since January with a 96th-minute penalty in the team’s 3-1 win over champions Liverpool on May 4, and he’s starting to round back into form, having notched at least one shot on target in six of his past seven games in all competitions and also recording at least three successful take-ons in two of his last three Premier League matches. If he can get anywhere near the form that he played up to in the first half of the season, he should be the best player on the pitch once Bruno is substituted off. Robert Sánchez has been elite in between the sticks all season, leading the Premier League in save percentage, and Chelsea has allowed the fourth-fewest goals in the league this season. Their defense will be enough to get them over the line.
