The Tampa Bay Rays are looking to climb back to .500 tonight as they host the Boston Red Sox in Game 1 of a crucial three-game set at George M. Steinbrenner Field. With both teams sitting just one game below even for the year, the Rays are in prime position to continue their strong home performances. Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Monday night baseball game between the Padres and the Cubs.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games each round, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Rays vs. Red Sox prediction, preview
They’ve recently come off a 2-1 series win over the Braves, where they dominated offensively and got solid pitching. However, the real standout for tonight is Shane Baz. The right-hander has been nothing short of stellar, posting a 1.39 ERA and 16 strikeouts over 13 innings in his first two starts of 2025. The Rays’ pitching staff is ranked eighth in the MLB with a 3.76 team ERA, and Baz has been one of the driving forces behind that. His fastball velocity is electric, and with his ability to generate swings and misses (holding opposing hitters to a .185 batting average), he’s primed for another big outing. Baz also has a history of dominating the Red Sox, going 2-0 with a 2.77 ERA in his two career starts against them in 2024. He should have no trouble keeping the Red Sox’s inconsistent offense at bay.
On the flip side, Tanner Houck, despite showing signs of improvement with a one earned run in 6.2 innings last time out against Toronto, has been far from reliable. He enters with a 4.41 ERA, and in three starts this season, he’s given up five earned runs in 10.1 innings on the road. He’s been unable to find any rhythm to begin the year, with a 1.47 WHIP and 10 strikeouts across 16.1 innings. In fact, Houck has a career 4.18 ERA against the Rays, with his struggles against Tampa’s lineup evident. He has allowed 12 hits and 19 strikeouts across 59 at-bats against current Rays hitters. While he keeps the ball on the ground, the Rays’ ability to exploit pitchers’ mistakes and generate runs makes them a dangerous matchup for Houck, especially with the hot bat of Junior Caminero leading the way.
The Rays’ offense may not be the flashiest, but it’s been effective. Despite ranking 16th in MLB with 4.07 runs per game, they’ve been hitting at .265 on the year, and their on-base percentage sits comfortably at .330, which ranks ninth in MLB. The Rays also don’t strike out much, sitting in the 96th percentile with 7.5 strikeouts per game. Even though their offense isn’t the most explosive, their patience and timely hitting allow them to grind out at-bats and capitalize on mistakes—something Houck has made plenty of this season. Their depth, with players like Jonathan Aranda (batting .395) and Kameron Misner (batting .361), gives them a balanced attack that can consistently get runners on base.
Red Sox vs. Rays pick, best bet
In contrast, the Red Sox have struggled to put runs on the board in recent weeks. While their team ERA of 3.75 is solid (14th in MLB), their offense has been more inconsistent. They’ve only hit 12 home runs (21st in the league) and are 24th in RBIs (54). Rafael Devers, who’s been cold recently (0-for-10 in his last three games), and Alex Bregman, who’s only hitting .190 over his last six games, haven’t been able to carry the load. Add in the fact that the Red Sox have had to battle through injuries and inconsistency in their bullpen (with a 62.5% save rate), and it’s clear they’ll have a tough time outdueling a team like the Rays at home.
With Baz’s electric start to 2025 and Houck’s lack of consistency, the Rays ML is the play. Tampa Bay has been playing solid, well-rounded baseball, and with a pitching advantage on the mound, they’re primed to secure the win. The Red Sox’s offense has been too inconsistent to keep up with Tampa’s pitching and their small-ball offense. Back the Rays to take the series opener tonight and start their homestand with a much-needed win. Lock it in!
Best bet: Rays ML (-125) vs. Red Sox
Tail Baz to play the role of Boston’s Boogeyman tonight with me in the DKN betting group here!
