Another international break has come and gone, and just nine weeks remain in the Premier League season. Liverpool is closing in on the title, while the three newly-promoted sides look set to go straight back down for the second consecutive year, but not much else has been determined, as just 12 points separate fourth-placed Chelsea from 13th-placed Manchester United.
DraftKings Sportsbook has plenty of bets available every week for England’s top flight. Here are my top betting picks for Matchweek 29, which will kick off tomorrow and run through Thursday.
First, let’s take a look at the full list of fixtures:
Fulham at Arsenal, 2:45 p.m. ET, April 1
West Ham United at Wolves, 2:45 p.m. ET, April 1
Manchester United at Nottingham Forest, 3 p.m. ET, April 1
Ipswich Town at AFC Bournemouth, 2:45 p.m. ET, April 2
Aston Villa at Brighton & Hove Albion, 2:45 p.m. ET, April 2
Leicester City at Manchester City, 2:45 p.m. ET, April 2
Crystal Palace at Southampton, 2:45 p.m. ET, April 2
Everton at Liverpool, 3 p.m. ET, April 2
Tottenham Hotspur at Chelsea, 3 p.m. ET, April 3
José Sá 3+ Saves (+115)
The Portuguese veteran is not a great goalkeeper, by any means; in fact, he ranks in just the 40th percentile among goalies in Europe’s top five leagues in save percentage. Sá’s occasional struggles are a major reason why Wolves, despite ranking 13th in the Premier League in goalscoring, sit just 17th in the league table. Despite allowing chances worth just 46.2 goals, Wolves have conceded 58 — a figure that can be attributed partially to luck and partially to the man in between the sticks.
Wolverhampton’s defense has tightened up in recent weeks, which has included Sá. After forcing him to face six or more shots on goal in each of the first six games of the season, Wolves have allowed five or fewer in all but one game since the start of December. Also, Sá is mostly saving the shots that he has faced, recording three or more saves in three of his last four games.
Meanwhile, the Hammers have not been very clinical with their finishing this season. Despite accumulating chances worth 36.6 expected goals this season, they have managed to net just 33 times, a bigger underperformance than all but three teams this season. West Ham also ranks fourth-to-last in the Premier League in non-penalty expected goals per shot and dead last in shot on target percentage, so while they’re generating plenty of offense, the quality of that offense is lacking. Combine that with the fact that the Hammers rank seventh from the bottom in goals per shot on target, and Sá’s path to a three-save performance is clear.
Nottingham Forest Moneyline (+140)
United may have righted the ship somewhat by taking eight points from their last five games — two more than Forest — but you still shouldn’t be able to get plus-odds on a home team sitting third in the table to beat a squad that sits just 13th, even if only 17 points separate the two and the teams are fairly close by expected goal differential. All season long, it’s seemed like Forest — who survived relegation by merely six points over lowly Luton Town last season — was due to drop off eventually, and they haven’t. Instead, with nine matches remaining in the season, Champions League qualification looks close to a certainty.
Let’s dive deeper into those five games. Nottingham Forest lost to both Fulham and Newcastle — the latter a seven-goal thriller — before drawing with Arsenal, beating Manchester City, and comfortably taking care of business against Ipswich Town. Meanwhile, the Red Devils lost to Spurs, drew with Everton, beat the Tractor Boys, drew with Arsenal, and then beat Leicester City. No matter how poorly the Cityzens have played at times, a win over them is far more impressive than a win over two relegation-bound clubs.
Plus, the Forest Ground has been kind to its home squad. This season, Nottingham Forest has accumulated 28 points on friendly turf, the third-most in the league, winning eight out of its 14 fixtures. Away from Old Trafford, United has been dreadful, winning four times, drawing five, and losing five, although with a miserable negative-5.0 expected goal difference. The quality difference between these two sides is far too wide to offer plus odds on the favorite winning.
Phil Foden Anytime Goalscorer (+115)
It’s been an extremely disappointing campaign for the 2023-24 Premier League Player of the Season, as Foden has amassed just seven goals and two assists in the domestic competition. He’s producing the fewest shots on target per 90 minutes of his entire career — just 0.88. And while he’s an above-average finisher still, based on the differential between his actual goal tally and the quality of his chances created, that differential is down from plus-8.7 last season to just plus-2.1 this season.
If Foden’s ever going to break his two-month goalless drought, it’ll come against the Foxes, who have arguably been the Premier League’s biggest disappointment this season. Leicester has allowed more goals than any team but Southampton — which is in danger of being the worst top-flight team of all time — and more expected goals than any but the Saints and Ipswich. Besides a win over Spurs in January — which, to be fair, is Spurs in a nutshell — the Foxes are winless against top-flight clubs since December.
The x-factor here is the injury that Erling Haaland suffered in City’s FA Cup quarterfinal win over Bournemouth. Haaland had to be subbed off and was later seen with a walking boot, and the expectation is that he will miss some time, although the team said it’s not expected to end his season. Either way, he’ll almost certainly be sidelined for Wednesday’s match, which means more opportunities for City’s other attackers. The primary beneficiary will be Omar Marmoush, but Foden should get more shots too.
Mohamed Salah 1+ Assists (+295)
Liverpool’s elimination at the hands of Paris Saint-Germain in the UEFA Champions League dented Salah’s case to become the second-ever African winner of the Ballon d’Or, but his chance at lifting the prestigious silverware largely hinges on how far FC Barcelona goes in the Champions League. The Reds are virtually assured to lift the Premier League trophy, but after losing the EFL Cup final to Newcastle on March 16, that’s the only trophy they’re still eligible to win. Meanwhile, the Blaugrana — and their leading man, Raphinha — can still win La Liga, the Champions League, and the Copa del Rey. They’ve already won the Spanish Super Cup, so Raphinha has one trophy right now to Salah’s zero.
Salah could strengthen his case vis-a-vis Raphinha’s by winning both the Premier League’s golden boot and finishing as its top assister, given that the Brazilian doesn’t even lead his team in either category. Only four players have ever one both trophies in the same season in the Premier League, including Salah himself, who did it in 2021-22. But that season, he shared the golden boot with Tottenham’s Son Heung-min, and this season, he has six more goals than any other player and seven more assists, and Haaland’s injury effectively seals the top scorer race.
He’s assisted at least once in 14 of his 29 Premier League games the season and started in every match, so his +295 odds are a bargain. While the Toffees have had one of the better defenses is in the division, allowing the fifth-fewest goals, they’ve also allowed a relatively high completion percentage on short, medium, and long passes, so they’re not exactly invincible. Everton also ranks near the worst in the Premier League in terms of both live-ball and dead-ball passes that lead to a shot attempt. Salah — who should be extra motivated in what is likely to be his last Merseyside Derby — should be primed to take advantage.
Tottenham Hotspur O1.5 Goals (+140)
Spurs’ problem isn’t putting the ball in the back of the net; they’ve scored 55 goals this season, behind only Liverpool and Manchester City. It hasn’t even been preventing the opponent from doing so; although they rank eighth from the bottom in goals conceded, that’s better than their 14th position in the league table. Mostly, Tottenham plays up or down to its opponent’s level; Spurs picked up a dominating 4-0 win over Manchester City in November and lost 2-1 to Leicester City two months later.
Despite the Blues’ inconsistency — a recent stretch of four games in which they recorded losses against Manchester City, Brighton, and Aston Villa isn’t confidence-inspiring — they’re a pretty good team. Chelsea has held onto fourth place in the table for most of the season, and it looks likely to play in the Champions League next season in addition to being the overwhelming favorite in the Europa Conference League. The Blues played Tottenham to an epic 4-3 win in early December.
Chelsea’s defense is pretty solid, but its ranking of seventh in the Premier League ranks behind its actual position of fourth in the table. Plus, after not letting a team score more than two goals in any league game between the start of the season and that Spurs clash, the Blues have conceded that many twice in their past seven league games, in those defeats to City and Brighton. Chelsea has given up just one goal in its last three games, but two of them came against relegation-bound teams and the other came against Arsenal, which prefers a more defensive style.
