The first leg of the Champions League Round of 16 had some incredible games and surprising results, including Arsenal’s 7-1 thrashing of PSV Eindhoven and Liverpool’s 1-0 win over Paris Saint-Germain in which Alisson made nine saves. I already broke down the Round of 16 with a full preview after the draw was completed, but now I’m going to offer my favorite betting picks for the second legs.
DraftKings Sportsbook has plenty of bets available every week for the UCL. In this article, I’m going to run you through my favorites over the next two days.
First, let’s take a look at the full list of fixtures:
Benfica at Barcelona, 1:45 p.m. ET, March 11 (Barcelona 1-0 on aggregate)
Bayern München at Bayer Leverkusen, 4 p.m. ET, March 11 (Bayern München 3-0 on aggregate)
Feyenoord at Internazionale, 4 p.m. ET, March 11 (Inter 2-0 on aggregate)
Paris Saint-Germain at Liverpool, 4 p.m. ET, March 11 (Liverpool 1-0 on aggregate)
Borussia Dortmund at Lille, 1:45 p.m. ET, March 12 (Tied 1-1 on aggregate)
PSV Eindhoven at Arsenal, 4 p.m. ET, March 12 (Arsenal 7-1 on aggregate)
Club Brugge at Aston Villa, 4 p.m. ET, March 12 (Aston Villa 3-1 on aggregate)
Real Madrid at Atlético Madrid, 4 p.m. ET, March 12 (Real Madrid 2-1 on aggregate)
Lamine Yamal 1+ Assists (+230)
The wunderkind has been struggling with his goal-scoring form recently, but although he hasn’t found the back of the net since February 6, he is fairly consistent as a playmaker, having found the back of the net in 17 of his 42 matches this season, including two of his last four. He’s only recorded two in the Champions League so far, but he’s always a threat every time the ball is at his feet and consistently records shot-creating actions, even if it doesn’t end up showing up in the scoresheet. The 17-year-old still has three more assists in La Liga than any other player.
Plus, while Benfica left back Álvaro Carreras has been very solid so far during the tournament and recorded one tackle and two blocks during the Eagles’ first-leg defeat, he picked up his fifth yellow card of the tournament, which will suspend him for the second leg. During the first game he missed — Benfica’s final League Phase game against Juventus — the Italians managed plenty of goal-scoring opportunities, recording 17 total shots and earning seven corner kicks despite not putting one in the back of the net. The Eagles got away with it because right winger Francisco Conceição completed a team-low 70.5% of his passes, but I expect Carreras’ absence to impact the team’s performance more against a passer as talented as Yamal.
Feyenoord U0.5 Goals (-115)
Inter’s defense has been rock-solid in the tournament so far, as the Nerazzurri have conceded just one goal in the first nine games, three goals fewer than the second-best squad. So far, Yann Sommer has faced 22 shots and saved 21 of them, the best save percentage of any keeper in the competition. Inter’s defenders — Stefan de Vrij, Francesco Acerbi, Denzel Dumfries, Benjamin Pavard, and Alessandro Bastoni — have all been rock-solid, although the latter three are all on a pair of yellow cards and would be suspended for the first leg of the quarterfinals if they picked up another. During this tie’s first leg, the Dutch side managed just eight shots worth 0.4 expected goals. Just one of Feyenoord’s 10 take-ons was successful.
Feyenoord has now recorded fewer than one expected goal in each of the last four games and sold Santiago Giménez to AC Milan during the January transfer window. Although it managed to find the back of the net once in each leg of the Playoff Round against the red side of Milan, AC Milan had a much more porous back line than Inter does. Even in the Eredivisie, Feyenoord’s attack hasn’t been in great form recently, recording three or more goals only once in seven matches in all competitions since Giménez’s departure. The Dutch side will need a minimum of two goals if it wants any chance of advancing, which is a tall task but a serious enough threat that Inter’s defense will play hard and physical. Sommer looks set to pick up his ninth clean sheet of the tournament.
Borussia Dortmund Moneyline (+165)
This was seen as the most even matchup entering the Round of 16, with both Dortmund and Lille having minus odds to advance, and it was the only match to finish in a draw in the first leg. In fact, Dortmund and Lille have the same odds to win the game outright. During the first leg, the French side was slightly unlucky not to score — amassing 0.9 expected goals to Dortmund’s 0.3 — but BVB accumulated five corners to Lille’s one and was more sound on defense, so as long as it cleans up its fouling issue, it can easily win this tie. The most impactful player on either team is Dortmund’s star striker, Serhou Guirassy, who still leads the competition’s Golden Boot race despite not netting in the first leg. Guirassy managed just one shot during the first leg, but it’ll be a tough bet to expect Alexsandro Ribeiro and Bafodé Diakité to play as well as they did again. Both players lag significantly behind the average center back in Europe’s Top 5 leagues, so some regression to the mean should allow Guirassy and his team to thrive.
Plus, as bad as BVB has been in the Bundesliga so far this season, it has consistently struck lightning in a bottle during the Champions League. It had no business making the final last year, when it struggled to a distant fifth-place finish, 27 points behind Leverkusen, and it has absolutely no business making the quarterfinal this season, sitting just 10th in the table. But Lille isn’t a world-beating squad either — it’s just fifth in Ligue 1, an easier league than the German top flight — and as good as Jonathan David has been, I trust Dortmund’s all-around talent and depth just enough to get the job done.
Victor Okoh Boniface Anytime Goalscorer (+185)
Arguably the most surprising result of the first leg was Bayern destroying their German rivals, 3-0, and putting themselves in a comfortable position to advance. The two teams had been relatively evenly-matched all season, with Leverkusen knocking Bayern out of the DfB-Pokal and the teams drawing both of their matches in the domestic league. But a Harry Kane brace and a Jamal Musiala goal, in addition to a Nordi Mukiele red card, put the Reds on the verge of advancing to the quarterfinals. Leverkusen attempted just three shots to Bayern’s 16, and neither Manuel Neuer or Jonas Urbig was seriously challenged.
I refuse to believe that the two teams are as far apart in quality as last Tuesday’s match indicated. Victor Boniface has been a man on a mission when he’s played in the Bundesliga, recording seven goals in his 14 matches (10 starts), plus one goal in three Champions League appearances. Xabi Alonso needs to try something to give his team a chance of goal-scoring firepower, and Boniface ranks in the 90th percentile of all strikers in Europe’s Top 5 leagues at producing goals from open play. He has been slowly ramping up since returning from a thigh injury at the start of February, and he has scored a goal in two of the three matches in which he has played at least 45 minutes since his return, and he is expected to start on Wednesday with Florian Wirtz out. Plus, Urbig will be between the sticks for the Bavarians, since Neuer still isn’t fit to return after his calf injury in the first leg.
