After a very successful first-ever Playoff Round, the UEFA Champions League has reached the Round of 16. Three English sides, three Spanish sides, three German sides, two Dutch sides, two French sides, an Italian side, a Belgian side, and a Portuguese side remain in the quest for the ultimate football glory.
DraftKings Sportsbook has plenty of bets available every week for the UCL, and the opening odds have been posted for the Round of 16. The two-leg affairs will take place during the first two weeks of March, with the first legs kicking off on March 4 and 5 and the return fixtures taking place on the 11th and 12th.
This preview will break down the odds to advance, the teams’ performance so far in the tournament, and my prediction. At the end, I’ll also reveal each team’s odds of lifting the trophy and how the public is betting so far.
The Draw
No. 14 PSV Eindhoven vs. No. 3 Arsenal
Arsenal at PSV Eindhoven, March 4, 3 p.m. ET
PSV Eindhoven at Arsenal, March 12, 4 p.m. ET
The Teams: Arsenal (-450 to advance) was nearly flawless in the League Phase, losing once and drawing once and picking up 19 points. The Gunners, who are back in the Premier League title fight, have two of the world’s best defenders, Gabriel and William Saliba, and allowed just three goals during the League Phase. PSV (+310 to advance) had the most exciting Playoff Round of any team, with Ryan Flamingo scoring a 98th-minute goal to hold off Juventus and advance to the Round of 16 for the second consecutive year.
The Preview: Of these two squads, only PSV has lifted the trophy, in 1988. But Arsenal has a far better squad this season, and its only loss in the League Phase was to an extremely difficult opponent, Inter Milan. PSV’s Playoff Round win was undeniably impressive — they earned 3.4 expected goals to Juventus’ 1.7 in a truly clinical, do-or-die performance — but Juventus had shown some cracks, both domestically and in the UCL and they’re not a better team than Arsenal. Luuk de Jong and Guus Til are fine attackers, but the Gunners held Erling Haaland’s Manchester City to a single goal two weeks ago. I like them to advance.
The Path to the Trophy: The winner’s path will be extremely difficult, as they’ll face one of the two Madrid squads. Last year’s champions, Real Madrid, surprisingly had to go through the Playoff Round, but there’s no question about Carlo Ancelotti’s side in the Champions League, and Atlético Madrid is just one point behind Real Madrid in a hyper-competitive La Liga table.
No. 11 Real Madrid vs. No. 5 Atlético Madrid
Atlético Madrid at Real Madrid, March 4, 3 p.m. ET
Real Madrid at Atlético Madrid, March 12, 4 p.m. ET
The Teams: Atlético Madrid (+145 to advance) looked significantly better in the League Phase, scoring 20 goals — tied for the third-most of any team in the competition. Antoine Griezmann and Julian Álvarez form one of the most dangerous attack partnerships in Europe, while goalkeeper Jan Oblak is elite for both club and country. Real Madrid (-195 to advance) has shown some inconsistencies while working Kylian Mbappé into the team, but the French striker scored a hat trick in the Playoff Round to knock out Manchester City.
The Preview: Atlético got extremely unlucky to have to face Real Madrid than Feyenoord, even if the Galacticos have been in inconsistent form domestically. Los Colchoneros are more than capable of beating their cross-town rivals, as they’ve drawn both matches in La Liga, but at the end of the day, it’s Real Madrid in the Champions League. The Galacticos won the title last season, relatively unchallenged in the final against Borussia Dortmund, and that was before adding Mbappé, arguably the world’s most-talented player. Real Madrid will have to play at its best to win, but its attack is simply too strong, and I think the Galacticos will get the job done by a narrow margin.
The Path to the Trophy: The winner will surely be hoping that PSV upsets Arsenal, because Gabriel, Saliba, and David Raya can pose problems for even the brilliant front three of Mbappé, Vinicius Junior, and Rodrygo.
No. 15 Paris Saint-Germain vs. No. 1 Liverpool
Liverpool at Paris Saint-Germain, March 5, 3 p.m. ET
Paris Saint-Germain at Liverpool, March 11, 4 p.m. ET
The Teams: Liverpool (-195 to advance) won each of the seven matches in which it started a full-strength 11 in the League Phase, scoring 17 goals and conceding just five. The Reds are also on top of the Premier League and have been easily the best team in that competition, led by Mo Salah, who could become just the second-ever African Ballon d’Or winner. They’ll face a tough challenge in PSG (+145 to advance), which just recorded a 10-0 aggregate win over Brest in the Playoff Phase and made arguably the biggest addition during the January transfer window, Georgian attacker Khvicha Kvaratskhelia.
The Preview: This is an unlucky draw for both teams, although it’s not like PSG would have faced a significantly easier opponent if it had drawn Barcelona instead. PSG hasn’t lost in any competition since a 1-0 defeat to Bayern Munich on November 26, and it is once again in control of Ligue 1. Meanwhile, Liverpool has shown a little bit of vulnerability, drawing two of their last three Premier League matches and getting knocked out of the FA Cup by Championship relegation side Plymouth Argyle. There will be at least one upset in the Champions League Round of 16, and it might as well be this one.
The Path to the Trophy: The winner will have a relatively kind matchup against either No. 8 Aston Villa, who have struggled somewhat domestically, or No. 24 Club Brugge, the lowest-ranked team remaining in the competition, and either should be favored to advance to the semifinals. Given the strength of Villa’s defense, though, the winner should be hoping for Brugge to pull off the upset.
No. 24 Club Brugge vs. No. 8 Aston Villa
Aston Villa at Club Brugge, March 4, 12:45 p.m. ET
Club Brugge at Aston Villa, March 12, 4 p.m. ET
The Teams: Aston Villa (-330 to advance) picked up 16 points in the League Phase, scoring 13 goals and conceding six. The Villans are led by two-time Yashin Award winner Emiliano Martínez in goal and currently sit ninth in the Premier League. Meanwhile, Club Brugge (+230 to advance) squeaked into the playoff round but were clinical in dispatching Atalanta, 5-2 on aggregate, in the Playoff Round. The Belgians’ win over Atalanta was spearheaded by 19-year-old right winger Chemsdine Talbi, who scored a brace, and they’re currently second in the Belgian Pro League.
The Preview: This tournament is tied for the farthest Club Brugge has advanced since they made the final in 1978, and unfortunately, I see their Cinderella run ending here. While Villa has been inconsistent in the Premier League, they just picked up a critical point against Liverpool in their most recent match and dominated Celtic in Matchweek 8 of the League Phase. Brugge will surely lean on the fact that they picked up a win against Villa in Matchweek 4 of the League Phase, but they no longer have forward Andreas Skov Olsen, who now plays for Bundesliga side Wolfsburg. Brugge’s lackluster attack scares me against a defense as good as Aston Villa’s.
The Path to the Trophy: The winner’s path won’t get any easier, as they’ll either go against No. 1 Liverpool or No 15. Paris Saint-Germain. The Reds were easily the most dominant team in the League Phase, as they won every game in which they started a full-strength 11, and PSG is coming off a Playoff Round performance in which they knocked off compatriots Brest, 10-0 on aggregate.
No. 16 Benfica vs. No. 2 FC Barcelona
FC Barcelona at Benfica, March 5, 1:45 p.m. ET
Benfica at FC Barcelona, March 11, 3 p.m. ET
The Teams: Barcelona (-525 to advance) had the best attack during the League Phase, scoring 28 goals — six more than any other squad. Led by wonderkid Lamine Yamal, ageless wonder Robert Lewandowski, and Brazilian winger Raphinha, Barça has not lost yet in 2025 in any competition. Benfica, meanwhile, were saved by Orkan Kökçü, whose 84th-minute goal lifted the Eagles to a 4-3 aggregate thriller against Monaco in the Playoff Round. Benfica’s attacking partnership is headlined by Ángel Di María, a 37-year-old Argentinian legend, who has contributed seven goals and three assists in 18 matches.
The Preview: This was a relatively friendly draw for Barcelona, who otherwise would have faced a red-hot PSG squad. Both of these teams were beatable at the back in the League Phase, and despite the Eagles’ Vangelis Pavlidis consistently showing up with timely performances for his squad, Barça’s attack is simply better. Yamal will likely win his second straight Golden Boy award, Raphinha will be a Ballon d’Or contender if Barcelona wins the league, and Lewandowski currently leads the La Liga Golden Boot race.
The Path to the Trophy: If it wins, Barça should be favored against either No. 10 Borussia Dortmund or No. 7 Lille in the quarterfinals, because as good as the Germans have been in the Champions League, they’re just 11th in the Bundesliga. Lille played incredibly well during the League Phase, but Barcelona is simply more talented.
No. 10 Borussia Dortmund vs. No. 7 Lille
Lille at Borussia Dortmund, March 4, 3 p.m. ET
Borussia Dortmund at Lille, March 12, 1:45 p.m. ET
The Teams: Lille (-105 to advance) was the surprise package in the League Phase, as the French side (which sits just fifth in Ligue 1) picked up impressive wins against both Madrid sides. Since then, Les Douges have come back to earth a little bit, but a 6-1 win against Feyenoord on January 29 was extremely convincing as well, and Canadian striker Jonathan David is proving that he’s truly a world-class player. Borussia Dortmund (-130 to advance) scored 22 goals during the League Phase and fired three past Sporting in the first leg of the Playoff Round before parking the bus in the second leg. BVB is led by a talented striker from another unlikely country, Guinea international Serhou Guirassy, who is leading the Champions League golden boot race so far with 10 goals.
The Preview: This matchup between two teams that have over-performed in the Champions League and under-performed domestically is one of the most intriguing fixtures in the Round of 16, but Lille’s two impressive Champions League wins came all the way back in November and Dortmund’s came in the first leg of the Playoff Round. Even though the team’s domestic struggles have continued — they’ve lost each of their last Bundesliga matches — I can’t argue against a team that made the final last season before adding one of the world’s most in-form strikers in Guirassy.
The Path to the Trophy: The winner will surely be hoping that Benfica upsets Barcelona, because while Vangelis Pavlidis is a good striker, he inspires far less fear than the devastating trio of Yamal, Raphinha, and Lewandowski.
No. 12 Bayern München vs. No. 6 Bayer Leverkusen
Bayer Leverkusen at Bayern München, March 5, 3 p.m. ET
Bayern München at Bayer Leverkusen, March 11, 4 p.m. ET
The Teams: Leverkusen (+145 to advance) is eight points behind Bayern in the Bundesliga table, but in the League Phase, they had one more draw and one fewer loss than their compatriots. They aren’t quite as dominant as they were last year, when they went invincible domestically, but any team led by Florian Wirtz and Patrik Schick is a dangerous threat. Bayern München (-195 to advance) were unconvincing in the Playoff Round, needed a 94th-minute winner by left back Alphonso Davies to get past Scottish side Celtic. The Bavarians are led by striker Harry Kane, who has 21 goals in just 20 Bundesliga matches, and Germany’s second-best 21-year-old attacking midfielder, Jamal Musiala.
The Preview: The clash between these two German rivals is arguably the Round of 16’s most anticipated. These teams have been unable to separate themselves this season, playing to draws in both of their Bundesliga matches. In the first match, Munich won the expected-goal battle, 1.4-0.1, but in the second match, Leverkusen were extremely unlucky not to score, generating 2.0 worth of xG to Bayern’s 0.0. Last season’s champions did knock their rivals out of the DFB-Pokal with a 1-0 win on December 3. Xabi Alonso is a better manager than Vincent Kompany, and I like Lukáš Hrádecký better than an aging Manuel Neuer, so I think Leverkusen will advance on penalties.
The Path to the Trophy: Whichever German giant emerges victorious will surely hope No. 19 Feyenoord upsets No. 4 Inter, given that the Italian side allowed just one goal during the League Phase, the least of any team. Either team is talented enough to beat Inter, but the surprise Dutch side — which just sold striker Santi Giménez to AC Milan before eliminating him in the Playoff Round — would be an easier opponent.
No. 19 Feyenoord vs. No. 4 Inter
Inter at Feyenoord, March 5, 12:45 p.m. ET
Feyenoord at Inter, March 11, 4 p.m. ET
The Teams: Inter (-1000 to advance) had the best defense during the League Phase, as Leverkusen’s Nordi Mukiele scored the only goal against them in the opening eight matches. While the Italian outfit trails Napoli by two points in Serie A, they’ve been one of the most in-form teams in Europe and Lautaro Martínez and Marcus Thuram form one of the best striker partnerships in Europe. Feyenoord (+500 to advance) impressively held off Inter’s cross-town rivals to advance to the Round of 16, thanks to a Julián Carranza 73rd-minute winner, but without Giménez, the Dutch side faces a tall task to beat the blue side of Milan.
The Preview: Just like I’ve predicted Arsenal to end PSV Eindhoven’s run, the 1970 champions will be knocked out against one of the strongest sides remaining in the competition. Especially without Giménez, Inter just has so much more top-level talent, from the surprisingly effective Thuram to Martínez, who finished seventh in last season’s Ballon d’Or voting, to goalie Yann Sommer, who hasn’t been incredible by advanced statistics but leads both the UCL and Serie A in clean sheets. Feyenoord allowed 21 goals during the league phase — the most of any team remaining in the competition — and Inter is simply too clinical not to take advantage.
The Path to the Trophy: The winner knows they will be facing a German side in the next round, and either No. 6 Bayer Leverkusen or No. 12 Bayern München would pose a huge challenge. Feyenoord was a lucky draw for Inter in this round, but are no easy teams remaining on the right side of the bracket.
Who Will Win?
Champion Odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Real Madrid: +380
Barcelona: +450
Liverpool: +550
Arsenal: +550
Bayern Munchen: +700
Inter Milan: +1100
Paris St-Germain: +1200
Atletico Madrid: +2000
Leverkusen: +2200
Aston Villa: +3000
Dortmund: +5000
Benfica: +8000
PSV Eindhoven: +10000
Lille: +10000
Feyenoord: +15000
Club Brugge: +15000
Public Betting Splits
Bettors are mostly figuring that it will be a two-horse race between the Spanish giants, with Real Madrid attracting a slight plurality of the bets. However, big-money bettors seem to slightly favor Barcelona, with 27% of the handle. The only other teams that have attracted more than 10% of bets are Liverpool — which has attracted 19% of all bets, although mostly smaller — and Manchester City, which was eliminated by Real Madrid in the Playoff Round.
Barcelona probably has the easiest road to the final of the remaining teams; assuming all the favorites win, Benfica, Borussia Dortmund and either Bayern or Inter is not too difficult of a schedule. Meanwhile, Real Madrid will have to face Atlético, Arsenal, then Liverpool just to reach the final, and Liverpool will have to beat PSG, Aston Villa, then Real Madrid.
Of the long shots, Los Colchoneros are the most appealing prospect, and big-money bettors in particular have backed the Galacticos’ cross-town rivals, making them one of just five teams to attract at least 5% of the handle, although, if they beat Real Madrid, they’ll inherit their difficult quarterfinal and semifinal schedule.
Probably the most exciting final would be an El Clásico, but depending on how the domestic leagues finish, a battle for the Ballon d’Or between Liverpool’s Salah and Barcelona’s Raphinha or Lewandowski would be intriguing as well.
