The UEFA Champions League, after starting with 36 teams, is down to just 16, and there are some bangers on tap for this week’s first legs. An all-German affair between Bayern München and Bayer Leverkusen, a Madrid Derby, and a battle between Liverpool and Paris Saint-Germain highlight this week’s incredible games. I already broke down the Round of 16 with a full preview after the draw was completed, but now I’m going to offer my favorite betting picks.
DraftKings Sportsbook has plenty of bets available every week for the UCL. Here are my favorites over the next two days:
First, let’s take a look at the full list of fixtures:
Aston Villa at Club Brugge, 12:45 p.m. ET, March 4
Lille at Borussia Dortmund, 3 p.m. ET, March 4
Arsenal at PSV Eindhoven, 3 p.m. ET, March 4
Atlético Madrid at Real Madrid, 3 p.m. ET, March 4
Internazionale at Feyenoord, 12:45 p.m. ET, March 5
Bayer Leverkusen at Bayern München, 3 p.m. ET, March 5
FC Barcelona at Benfica, 3 p.m. ET, March 5
Liverpool at Paris Saint-Germain, 3 p.m. ET, March 5
Emiliano Martinez 4+ Saves (+170)
Aston Villa’s performance in the Premier League has been extremely up-and-down, making them a difficult squad to predict domestically. They managed a point against runaway league winners Liverpool and beat Chelsea, then got thrashed by Newcastle. But in the Champions League, they’ve been solid, and two-time defending Yashin Trophy winner Martinez has played better in the international tournament. He ranks fourth in the Championship in saves among goalies who didn’t participate in the playoff round, and he saved six shots against Club Brugge during the league phase, when the Belgians notched a 1-0 victory.
Martinez saved at least four shots in five of the eight League Phase matches of this season’s Champions League, and in one of the others, he wouldn’t have had the opportunity because Juventus didn’t amass four or more shots on target. Perhaps the question of whether the shoddy Brugge attack will even get off enough shots on target, given that it ranks just 17th in shots on target so far this tournament despite having had the two Playoff Round games; its on-target rate is exactly 50%. During the Playoff Round, it recorded seven shots on target across two games against Atalanta, and it had at least four shots on target in six of its eight League Phase matches. Given Martinez’s 87.7% save percentage in the tournament so far, it’s likely that he’ll need to face at least five shots on target, a number Brugge has hit four times so far.
Arsenal Win and U3.5 Goals (+135)
The Gunners’ calling card this season has been their defense; center-back pairing William Saliba and Gabriel are arguably the world’s best, and Arsenal has allowed just three goals in its Champions League campaign so far, the second-fewest after Inter, which has conceded one. Plus, in one of the games it let up a goal, it didn’t even have a full-strength squad, as it had already clinched a top-eight spot and Girona’s elimination had been sealed.
PSV has been a relatively high-scoring unit, bagging three or more goals in five of their 10 games so far. Overall, they’re tied for eighth in the tournament in scoring, tied with fellow Dutch club Feyenoord and Atlético Madrid. But while Luuk de Jong, Johan Bakayoko, and Noa Lang is a decent front three, it doesn’t threaten Arsenal as much as two of the other clubs that have managed a goal, since Inter have Lautaro Martinez and Sporting roster Viktor Gyökeres. Plus, while the 15 goals they’ve conceded is tied for the most of any team remaining in the competition, I’m not sure I trust the Gunners’ attack with Bukayo Saka still out and Kai Havertz having suffered a season-ending hamstring injury. I see a 2-0 or 2-1 Arsenal win on the cards.
Real Madrid and Atlético Madrid to Draw (+255)
Very little has separated the two sides of Madrid this season. Each of the times they’ve met in La Liga, the game finished in a 1-1 draw. Los Colchoneros have been two points better domestically than the Galacticos and have conceded three fewer goals in Champions League competition. Atlético hasn’t slipped up much recently, but Real Madrid inexplicably suffered a 2-1 defeat to Real Betis, who sit sixth in the table. Los Colchoneros’ better form will be just enough to make up for the fact that the Galacticos always show up in the Champions League and the fact that the game will be played at the Santiago Bernabeu.
The first time the two teams met this season, on September 29, each team got four of their 12 shots on target, and Atléti had a slight edge in possession, 51-49. Real Madrid was unlucky not to win on February 8 after firing 23 shots, and the super Jan Oblak needed to make eight saves just to salvage the draw. Julián Álvarez has scored in each of his last two games in La Liga, and he’s arguably in better form than any of the Galacticos’ brilliant front three, even Kylian Mbappé, whose hat trick was good enough to get Real Madrid past Manchester City in the Playoff Round.
Ousmane Dembele Anytime Goalscorer (+155)
Liverpool is going to win the Premier League by a massive margin, and it also was on top of the League Phase table even with a loss in its final game — in which the majority of its important players didn’t play. It’s incredibly unlucky that the Reds drew PSG in the Round of 16; given the Parisians’ form, this could easily be worthy of a semifinal or final. PSG hasn’t lost in any competition since November 26, while Liverpool started Salah in a 1-0 defeat in the first leg of the Carabao Cup semifinals on January 8. The margins between these teams are thin, but the Reds drew 2-2 to both Everton and Aston Villa in recent weeks, and PSG has posted two 7-0 wins in the last three weeks.
If PSG finds a way to manufacture a good chance — it’s second in total attempts and fourth in attempts on target in the competition so far — it might be enough to sneak one past Allison, who’s quietly posting his lowest save percentage of his storied career. He’s allowed 0.05 more goals per 90 minutes based on the post-shot expected quality, putting him in just the 32nd percentile among goalkeepers in Europe’s top five leagues in that category. Plus, Dembele is in incredible form, having found the back of the net in 11 of his 14 matches since January 1, including each of the past three. He’s been one of the most clinical finishers in Europe this season, ranking among the best at converting his chances into goals.
