The NBA is back in action tonight with 14 games on a loaded Wednesday schedule. Two former No. 1 selections are set to duel in San Antonio tonight, with Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs hosting Cooper Flagg and the Dallas Mavericks. These teams are in various stages of their timelines, but even still, this should be an excellent matchup between division rivals.
Read on for a full preview, prediction and pick for Wednesday’s Mavericks vs. Spurs matchup, courtesy of odds on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Mavericks vs. Spurs prediction, preview
The expectation for the Mavericks this season is simply to play competitive basketball and hope for growth from some younger pieces. Through the first couple weeks of the campaign, they’re 4-3 and have done just that. They rank 18th in NETRTG (0.0) and are ranked in the middle of the pack on both sides of the ball – the offense is producing 112.3 PPG (16th) and sits 16th in OFFRTG, while the defense is holding opponents to an identical 112.3 PPG (14) and comes in at 14th in DEFRTG, too. As balanced as that sounds, it’s led to winning hoops. The Mavs have wins over playoff hopefuls like the Thunder, Heat and Rockets, so they’re even competing with some of the league’s favorites. They’re one of the most efficient teams from the floor, ranked fourth in FG% at 48.4%, though that’s by far their biggest strength. The team sits 20th in rebounds per game (42.4) and 17th in assists (25.9), falling to 22nd in turnovers (17.0), too.
Reigning Rookie of the Year Cooper Flagg has been incredible, averaging 25.2 points, 6.5 assists and 5.7 rebounds per game with an additional 2.5 steals. He’s leading the way, but Kyrie Irving is playing second fiddle quite well with 21.4 points and 4.8 assists per game of his own. P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford both play key roles in the frontcourt with double-digit points and seven-plus rebounds apiece, while Naji Marshall also pitches in 11.5 points and 6.0 dimes. While Santi Aldama was previously questionable to make his debut tonight, he’s since been downgraded to doubtful, so it’s less likely the offseason acquisition gets on the floor here.
Looking at the Spurs, they’ve shaken off a poor first couple of games and are looking like the team we knew them to be. This five-game winning streak actually began against the Mavs, so they’ve already proven themselves once against this roster. San Antonio ranks sixth in NETRTG (+9.2) and is showing plenty of promise. The team is scoring 117.6 PPG (10th) and sits 10th in OFFRTG; on the other end, they’re allowing only 108.3 PPG (eighth) and sit fourth in DEFRTG. The rotation is largely healthy beyond Tobias Harris, too, who remains out due to a calf issue. As things stand, the Spurs are in the middle of the pack when it comes to shooting efficiency, hitting 46.5% from the field and 34.8% from deep. However, they’re seventh in assists (27.4) and second in turnovers (13.4), so they’re protecting the ball quite well. The defense is what really stands out – they’re eighth in total rebounds per game (46.7) and lead the NBA in blocks (7.0).
Of course, it’s Victor Wembanyama leading the charge with 25.7 points, 10.7 rebounds and a league-best 4.0 blocks per contest. The Frenchman has seen additional help from second-year guard Dylan Harper, whose 18.3 points and 5.3 assists per outing both rank second on the team. The guard-heavy lineup is furthered by De’Aaron Fox (15.9 PTS, 6.4 AST) and Stephon Castle (14.7 PTS, 5.0 AST). Devin Vassell rounds out the starting five with 11.9 PPG and Julian Champagnie is the sixth man with 11.1 PPG, too.
Mavericks vs. Spurs pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Spurs as a commanding 12.5-point favorite at home tonight with -597 odds on the Moneyline. The Mavericks are a +443 underdog to win outright on the road with the total set at 226.5 combined points.
Dallas has done well to play competitive basketball on most nights, and that includes the first meeting between these teams. On October 24, they faced off as San Antonio won 122-106 on the road. That sounds like a blowout – and it was – but the important context to keep in mind is that the Mavs didn’t have Flagg or Irving available as they missed the game. The scoreboard was lopsided in the end, but the score was just 92-89 at the end of three quarters, too. If that one was close even in the absence of Dallas’ star, could the group cover the wide spread tonight?
The answer to that trends towards yes. Flagg is a go-to shotmaker who the Mavericks can trust to hit big chances and create his own buckets, which are also things Irving brings to the table as well. If this team could survive three quarters without their two best players, they can surely do the same tonight and keep the score within 12 points, even on the road in San Antonio. The Mavs are 4-3 against the spread thus far and have covered four times as the underdog, so they should have what it takes to keep this game from getting out of hand.
