It’s almost September. You know, the last month of the MLB regular season? I’m not quite sure where the time has gone, but I know for certain that we have five weeks of tense, thrilling and heart-stopping baseball to go before the playoffs. It keeps going tonight with all 30 teams in action on the diamond.
Here are my favorite bets on this evening’s full slate.
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Colorado Rockies at Baltimore Orioles
Orioles -1.5 (-105)
Here’s what we know heading into this Friday evening tilt. The Orioles are the American League’s best team on the run line, covering at a 62.2% clip. Meanwhile, the Rockies have dropped eight straight games against opponents with a winning record and eight straight games when playing away from Coors Field. In layman’s terms, this is a matchup between a very good ball club and an exceedingly bad one. Definitely a decent starting point.
Now, at first glance, the two starting pitchers in this contest aren’t all that dissimilar. By no means is Cole Irvin a world-beater. However, Irvin is left-handed, and Colorado has shown time and time again that it is unable to do much with southpaws. To wit, the Rockies sit dead-last in baseball in both OBP (.290) and wRC+ (66) within the split. Baltimore hits LHPs far better — it owns a 110 wRC+ versus lefties in 2023 — and Kyle Freeland is not exactly in the best form at the moment. The veteran has registered an inflated 6.62 ERA and 5.76 FIP dating back to June 15. That’s a span of 10 starts. Yikes.
Cleveland Guardians at Toronto Blue Jays
Under 8.5 (-118)
In general, I just don’t trust either of these lineups to score all that many runs. The Blue Jays have struggled to hit in the clutch all season long, but they’re struggling with everything the past two weeks, culminating in an 83 wRC+ that is the second-lowest mark in MLB. In that same span, the Guardians have remained consistent to what they’ve done throughout 2023, which is post a league-worst .117 ISO. Neither of these teams have a single hitter with 20 home runs to their name in late August. At a certain point, you are who you are.
However, this isn’t only about a lack of offensive firepower in both dugouts. A lean towards the under is also an endorsement of Tanner Bibee. The rookie RHP has been phenomenal the past couple of months, pitching to a 2.09 ERA across his last 10 outings. That stretch includes seven innings of scoreless baseball versus this same Toronto lineup earlier in August. Chris Bassitt is no slouch, either. The 34-year-old is far more seasoned that his counterpart, yet Bassitt’s already racked up 16 quality starts in 2023 — the eighth-most of any pitcher. Bassitt has proven to be a homebody, too. While opponents have managed a .370 wOBA off the right-hander on the road this season, Bassitt’s held batters to a .245 wOBA at Rogers Centre.
Kansas City Royals at Seattle Mariners
Bryce Miller Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105)
Do you know who possesses the league’s lowest strikeout rate the last two weeks? It would probably take you awhile to land on the Royals, but at 17.0%, that’s the correct answer. The key for Kansas City hasn’t necessarily been swinging at fewer pitches outside of the strike zone — the club’s 32.2% chase rate is roughly league-average — but instead an overall approach of aggressiveness. In that same stretch, the Royals own baseball’s fifth-highest swing rate (50.1%) and its third-highest contact rate (79.5%). You can’t go down swinging if you never even get to a two-strike count, right? Galaxy brain stuff.
That’s not to say that Miller couldn’t possibly rack up six strikeouts on Friday, yet I’m dubious he gets the job done. The rookie has failed to reach that threshold in 10 of his 18 prior outings in 2023, with Miller producing just four total strikeouts in his last two starts combined. In fact, Miller’s strikeout rate for August is a paltry 19.4%, while his season-long whiff rate sits in the 37th percentile of qualified arms. He’s not exactly Nolan Ryan. At plus-money, I’ll back Kansas City to keep making contact.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
