At long last, Scottie Scheffler is back, in case you missed uncompetitive golf.
The World No. 1, whose season debut was delayed by five weeks due to a freak hand injury that he suffered on Christmas Day, is set to tee it up at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am this week at Pebble Beach Golf Links in California. He is a +400 favorite to win the tournament at DraftKings Sportsbook; for some context, the player with the next-best odds is Rory McIlroy (+1100).
Those odds are certainly reminiscent of prime Tiger Woods, although Woods only won twice at Pebble Beach, both in his legendary 2000 season.
Is Scheffler as good as prime Tiger? Well, during the 2024 PGA TOUR season, he recorded seven wins and 16 top-ten finishes in 19 events, including THE PLAYERS Championship and the Masters Tournament. He also won gold at the Olympic Games and topped the invitational Hero World Challenge in his most recent start. Nothing will ever touch Woods’ 2000 campaign, but given the strength of modern fields and the stature of the events that he won, it’s pretty close.
To nitpick slightly, Scheffler hasn’t won at Pebble Beach before — he missed the cut at the 2019 U.S. Open and tied for sixth in the rain-shortened 2024 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. That T-6 was his seventh-worst result during the 2024 season.
Pebble Beach, with its fierce coastal winds, thick rough, and tiny greens, is one of the PGA TOUR’s hardest courses overall, off the tee, approaching the green, and for putting. The only place where it is easier than average is around the greens. Scheffler was above average at every aspect of golf during the 2024 PGA TOUR season, but he struggled the most on and around the greens, ranking just 77th in Strokes Gained: Putting and 17th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green. If he doesn’t win on Sunday, his putter will probably be the biggest reason why.
Still, hitting fairways and greens is at a premium at Pebble Beach, and nobody does that better than Scheffler. He ranked first in Strokes Gained: Approach the Green and second in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee during the 2024 season. He was third in green-in-regulation percentage, second in proximity to the hole, and 23rd in driving accuracy. Even on the greens, Scheffler’s proximity was so close that he had the lowest putting average on the PGA TOUR. Scheffler was effectively a perfect golfer during the PGA TOUR season, struggling only from the sand and within 10 yards of the green, and while Pebble Beach has some difficult bunkers, it’s not the course’s primary defense.
I wouldn’t take him at those odds, but I also wouldn’t be remotely surprised if he wins on Sunday. His initial timeline for returning from the hand injury was three or four weeks, and it’s been more than five weeks, so as long as he can grip the club without pain, he should have no adverse effects, even if he didn’t reveal when he had started practicing. Scheffler has recorded a top-ten finish in his season debut in each of the past two seasons and I back him to do so again this weekend, even at -225 odds.
