In the first leg of the Week 15 Monday Night double-header, the Minnesota Vikings will host the Chicago Bears.
The Vikings enter with an 11-2 record and have already clinched a WildCard playoff spot. They have vastly outperformed expectations this season, but still have something to play for, as the injury-riddled Detroit Lions hold just a half-game lead in the NFC North.
Chicago has not had the same luck this season. After entering the season with playoff aspirations, they hold a record of just 4-9. The organization fired the head coach mid-season for the first time in over a century. While their goals for this season are already lost, the focus remains on Caleb Williams continuing to develop and building into next year.
The Vikings enter this game as 7-point favorites and -345 on the Moneyline. The Bears are +275 underdogs on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook, and the game total is set at 44 points. With the stage set, here are my favorite prop bets for the opening Monday night clash.
T.J. Hockenson Over 42.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
It took until Week 9 for T.J. Hockenson to make his return to the field after suffering an ACL tear last season. Across the six games he has played, Hockenson has tallied 27 receptions for 299 receiving yards.
This will be the second matchup between the Vikings and the Bears this year. Hockenson had his best performance of the season in this matchup, as he tallied seven receptions for 114 yards in the first game against Chicago. The Bears have struggled defending tight ends this year and are giving up an average of 62.6 receiving yards on the season overall.
Hockenson has tallied at least two receptions in every game since he has returned, and has been targeted at least three times in each. He may not reach the output he did in the Week 12 matchup, but expect this to be an area the Vikings have circled on their scouting report. Look for him to record over 42.5 receiving yards for the fourth time this season and make a strong impact on this game.
Sam Darnold Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-165)
Sam Darnold has been one of the biggest surprises across this NFL season. The former third-overall pick has found his footing with the Vikings and is in the midst of his best season as a professional. Darnold has thrown for a career-high 3,299 passing yards and 28 touchdowns already this season with just 13 games played. He has thrown for at least two touchdowns in 10 of the 13 games, and is coming off five passing touchdowns last week against the Falcons.
Looking at the Bears’ defense, Chicago ranks ninth in points allowed but 24th in yards given up. They also rank 19th in passing yards allowed, third in passing touchdowns conceded, and 31st in net yards per pass attempt. Chicago has allowed multiple passing touchdowns in three straight weeks coming into this matchup, including two passing touchdowns from Sam Darnold in Week 12.
Expect this level of success to continue for Darnold with seedings still fully on the line. Kevin O’Connell has made life easy for the quarterback, and Darnold has proven more than competent to make the right throws and relying on his weapons. The -165 odds are a bit steep, but count on Darnold to continue his success and throw for over 1.5 passing touchdowns for the fifth consecutive game.
D’Andre Swift Under 49.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Through the opening 13 games, D’Andre Swift has carried the ball 193 times for 742 yards and five touchdowns. Swift is averaging just 3.8 yards per carry, which ranks 42nd in the NFL. While there is a consistent volume of carries with Swift recording at least 10 rush attempts in every game, his efficiency in these opportunities has been well below par. Swift has been held to less than 49.5 rushing yards in three consecutive games leading into this matchup and six games overall.
Looking at the Vikings’ defense, they rank fourth in points allowed and 15th in rushing yards given up. Minnesota has been especially strong against the run, ranking second in yards allowed, third in rushing touchdowns conceded, and third in net yards per rush attempt.
If the Vikings can take an early lead, the rushing opportunities will be even more limited for Swift. He has struggled in recent weeks and the Vikings have had success shutting down the run. Don’t expect Swift to make much of an impact in this matchup. The 25-year-old will be held under 49.5 rushing yards for the fourth consecutive week.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
