With the dust fully settled from the 2023 trade deadline, we’ve begun to get a sense of the new landscape around the league. The Phillies seem to be getting hot at just the right time, for the second year in a row. The streaking Mariners have busted down the door of the AL Wild Card party. August additions have the Rangers, Dodgers and Orioles looking like legit pennant contenders … and the Angels like they’re a few weeks away from saying goodbye to Shohei Ohtani.
A lot has changed in just the last few days, and the playoff picture seemingly shifts every hour. Which makes this is a great opportunity to take stock of where things stand as the marathon that is the regular season suddenly turns into a sprint. Who put themselves in pole position? Let’s break it down.
2023 MLB power rankings: Week 21
Tier 1
1. Atlanta Braves
2. Baltimore Orioles
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
4. Texas Rangers
5. Houston Astros
The top tier remains exactly as it was last week, as the O’s, Rangers and Dodgers racked up wins while the Braves and Astros more or less held serve. Atlanta’s spot at the top is in a bit more peril than we’ve seen in some time, though, and if this keeps up we might need to have a conversation about whether this team should have done more to add pitching depth at the trade deadline. Kyle Wright will be back relatively soon, but Charlie Morton and Bryce Elder are looking harder and harder to trust, and there’s only so much Spencer Strider and Max Fried can do.
To be fair, though, pitching depth is a concern for just about all of these teams. If the Baltimore and L.A. were to meet in the World Series, Clayton Kershaw’s return — and the lingering questions around Baltimore’s rotation — would probably have us leaning towards the Dodgers, but the O’s have been the steadier team all summer long. Andrew Heaney left his start early this weekend due to injury, which makes Nathan Eovaldi’s pending return even more crucial for the Rangers, while Houston needs to get Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier right.
Tier 2
6. Tampa Bay Rays
7. Philadelphia Phillies
8. Seattle Mariners
9. Toronto Blue Jays
10. Milwaukee Brewers
It’s shocking how far the Rays have fallen since that historic, feel-good month of April. First the team watched as just about every pitcher of note suffered one injury or another — several of which were season-ending — and now reports have surfaced surrounding star shortstop Wander Franco and an inappropriate relationship allegedly involving a 14-year-old. Tampa banked a lot of wins early on, but there’s just no reason to think that this team is going to right the ship in time.
Everyone else in this tier, meanwhile, is trending in the other direction. The Phillies have once again gotten hot in August, a year after riding a second-half turnaround all the way to the World Series. This is a flawed lineup, but one that still packs plenty of punch, and Michael Lorenzen’s addition gives them among the deepest rotations in the NL. The Mariners and Brewers are in some ways mirror images of each other: Streaking Wild Card teams with great tops of their starting rotations and offenses that have question marks but have been better of late.
Tier 3
11. San Francisco Giants
12. Chicago Cubs
13. Boston Red Sox
14. Cincinnati Reds
15. Minnesota Twins
16. Miami Marlins
Ah, baseball’s great middle class. You can sell us on just about any outcome for just about any team in this tier and we’d believe you. The Reds are feeling the effects of not getting any pitcher help at the deadline, while the Cubs could also use another starter or two to supplement their dangerous lineup. The Giants and Marlins have the feeling of teams that have defied gravity up to this point, and as their offenses continues to struggle, that bill might come due over the next few weeks. But hey, they’re still very much here, and so they deserve some respect.
If you’re looking for a team outside the top 10 that could crash the October party, the choice would probably be the Twins: They have baseball’s best pitching staff, after all, and with the names on their roster they should be able to cobble together an offense that is at least good enough. Plus, they’re guaranteed a playoff spot thanks to the dismal AL Central, and once you get into the dance, anything can happen.
Tier 4
17. New York Yankees
18. Los Angeles Angels
19. Arizona Diamondbacks
20. San Diego Padres
This is a little mini-tier that we’ll call “teams with no choice but to continue trying to contend, although we have our doubts”. New York and L.A. are shackled to this postseason chase despite sinking down the AL Wild Card standings like a stone in recent weeks, and neither of them seem to have the rosters to make up that kind of ground with just 40-45 games remaining. The Diamondbacks remain promising long-term — and if we’re being honest they probably overachieved during that dream first half — but simply don’t have the pitchers to keep pace in the National League. The Padres, meanwhile, have officially run out of benefit of the doubt; if this roster was really as loaded as we all thought and had an October run in it, surely we’d have seen it by now.
Tier 5
21. St. Louis Cardinals
22. Detroit Tigers
23. Pittsburgh Pirates
24. New York Mets
25. Washington Nationals
We’ve now finally exited even the furthest fringes of contention, into the realm of teams retooling for 2024 (or, if you’re the Mets, 2025 and 2026). The Cardinals still clearly have the most talent of any club on this list — especially now that a red-hot Willson Contreras has finally joined the party — and that loaded lineup can very much play spoiler down the stretch. The Tigers, Pirates and Nationals have interesting young pieces to keep an eye on over the final weeks, while the Mets … well, you heard Max Scherzer.
Tier 6
27. Chicago White Sox
28. Colorado Rockies
29. Kansas City Royals
30. Oakland Athletics
Sure, there’s some gap in record between these four teams — particularly the top two and bottom two — but at this point we can’t be bothered to make the distinction. These are pretty comfortably the four worst teams in baseball, and there isn’t a ton to separate them over the final few weeks of the season.
