Entering Week 6, Sean Tucker played a total of three snaps over two games. With Rachaad White unable to go due to injury, Tucker was elevated to the backup role and played 29 snaps (38%). Bucky Irving, who had been taking playing time away from White due to his stellar play, assumed the lead duties and received 49 snaps (64%).
Both received 14 carries and scored a touchdown, but Tucker went for 136 yards, while Irving finished with 81 yards. A rate of 5.8 yards per carry is great, but Tucker’s 9.7 is out of this world. Tucker rushed for 47 yards over expectation, while Irving had 21 yards over expectation. Tucker also caught all three targets for 56 yards and a touchdown. Irving hauled in both targets for 24 yards.
So, if White is ruled out, which one should we play?
Well, for DFS, the two are separated by $200 if playing the two-game Monday slate. For Showdown, though, Irving is $3,000 more expensive, so it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out the best path.
Tucker went undrafted in the 2023 NFL Draft. Last season, he appeared in 11 games, but only carried 15 times for 23 yards and caught both of his two targets for nine yards. Irving was selected in the fourth-round of the 2024 NFL Draft. The two players are similar in terms of height and weight, as Tucker is 5-foot-9 and 207 pounds, while Irving is 5-foot-9 and 192 pounds. Irving runs a 4.55 40, while Tucker blazes with a 4.44 40. The reason Tucker went undrafted is because of a rare congenital heart defect.
Now, looking at Week 6’s game, Tucker didn’t get his first carry until the third quarter, but the game was close and he was uber-effective, so Tampa Bay just kept feeding him and feeding him. Let’s keep in mind that the Saints rush defense has allowed the sixth-highest success rate and second-highest Rush EPA on the season.
And herein lies the quandry for Week 7, because the Ravens have allowed the fourth-lowest Rush EPA and lowest success rate on the season. In addition, the Ravens are implied for the third-most points on the week, so the Buccaneers will more than likely be tilted towards the passing game.
And while Tucker received three targets in Week 6, Irving is the more trusted pass protector.
For Week 7, Irving is the guy for me if choosing between the two. The added bonus for DFS is that recency bias could swing the ownership numbers towards Tucker.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
