The Broncos are surprisingly 3-3 on the season, primarily due to their defense. The rush defense has allowed the third-lowest success rate and eighth-lowest Rush EPA. The pass defense has been equally as good, maybe even better, allowing the fourth-lowest success rate and third-lowest Pass EPA. The unit has the third-highest sack rate, second-highest pressure rate and blitzes at the highest rate in the league.
The Broncos are breaking in a rookie quarterback, so that side of the ball has predictably struggled. But the grass may indeed be greener on the other side, as Bo Nix has thrown five touchdowns over the last three games after laying goose eggs in the first three contests. He has also been a threat on the ground, rushing 37 times for 180 yards, 18 first downs, and three touchdowns.
The city of New Orleans was planning parades and festivities for the Saints home field Super Bowl after winning the first two games of the season in convincing fashion. Since then, they have dropped four in a row and Spencer Rattler is now quarterbacking the squad. Talk about life coming at you fast.
The pass defense has been decent, allowing the eighth-lowest Pass EPA, but the run defense has allowed opposing backfields to march right through it. Only the Cowboys allow more Rush EPA and the Saints are allowing 5.2 yards per carry, the second-most in the league.
While the Broncos have been middle-of-the-pack in pass rate, I’d expect them to lean on the ground game in this one.
Same with the Broncos, as Rattler had a -21.4 EPA in Week 6 and the Broncos are going to bring tons of pressure to try and rattle the Rattler. This is why I get paid the big bucks.
DK Sportsbook has the Broncos favored by 3 points on the road for Thursday with a paltry total of 37. There are a ton of significant injuries that must be monitored, and they are going to heavily influence roster construction.
As for Tuesday’s injury report, QB Derek Carr, WR Rashid Shaheed and WR Chris Olave did not practice. TE Taysom Hill and RB Alvin Kamara were limited participants. For the Broncos, CB Patrick Surtain II did not practice. Stay informed on the most recent updates at DK LIVE.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.5M Thursday Night Showdown [$500K to 1st] (DEN @ NO)
Captain’s Picks
Bo Nix ($14,100 CP): Nix has attempted at least 25 passes in every contest with three games over 30. He has yet to throw for 250 yards, though, and has one comical game with 60 yards passing. That said, he has thrown two touchdowns in each of the last two games, but what is really alluring is his dual-threat ability. Nix has rushed at least four times in every game and scored three touchdowns. He’s put up over 20 FPTS in each of the last two contests and has the highest floor/ceiling combo on the slate.
UTIL Plays
Broncos DST ($4,800): The Broncos have one of the best rush defenses in the league and blitz at the highest rate while being highly effective when doing so. Spencer Rattler wasn’t a complete deer-in-the-headlights last week, but this Broncos defense is a different animal than the one he faced last week. The Broncos DST has scored double-digit FPTS in four of six games this season. There should be plenty of opportunities to rack up fantasy goodies. The Patrick Surtain II injury is definitely a concern because he’s such a huge part, but the Saints have some huge injuries at wide receiver as well.
Courtland Sutton ($10,800): Sutton leads the team in targets by a significant margin. He has garnered 47. The next-closest wide receiver is at 19. Running back Javonte Williams is second on the team with 26. In addition, Sutton has eight red zone opportunities. When Nix goes to the air, there’s a good chance he has eyes for Sutton.
Bub Means ($4,000): With Chris Olave playing only two snaps last week due to injury, it was Means who stepped in and tied for the team lead with eight targets. Both Olave and Rashid Shaheed are on injury watch, so if one of them is unable to go, then Means will likely see a ton of targets.
Fades
Chris Olave ($10,600): Is it unfair that I’m writing up an injured player? Perhaps, but it’s my column! Olave suffered a concussion and is in the protocol. With this being a short week, it’s highly unlikely that he will be able to go through the five-step protocol in time. Even if he does play, the lingering effects and possibility for another episode make the risk/reward too scary.
THE OUTCOME
I like the Broncos to easily take care of business in this one. The defense is just too good while the offense has shown positive signs lately, and it hasn’t just been Nix putting the defense in bad positions. He’s actually been making plays.
Final Score: Broncos 30, Saints 13
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.5M Thursday Night Showdown [$500K to 1st] (DEN @ NO)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
