The Week 7 edition of Thursday Night Football will feature a pair of rookie quarterbacks facing off in their first primetime opportunities. Bo Nix will lead the 3-3 Denver Broncos down to New Orleans to face the 2-4 Saints, led by Spencer Rattler.
While this matchup does not carry the same stakes as some of the divisional matchups or potential playoff previews we have seen in past weeks, there are plenty of intriguing storylines to take note of.
The Broncos enter as three-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook. New Orleans is currently +120 on the moneyline while the game total is set at 37 points.
There are far more ways to get involved in the action than just traditional betting. One of the more unique features on DraftKings this year is Pick6 Fantasy Football!
Broncos at Saints Pick6 Plays
After moving on from Russell Wilson this offseason, the 2024 season marked a new era in Denver. The Broncos selected Bo Nix as the 12th overall pick in this year’s draft and handed the keys to the offense to last year’s Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Year. There have been some growing pains but he has shown some notable strides of progress lately. In the past three weeks, Nix has thrown for five touchdowns and just one interception while coming off a career-high 61 rushing yards last week.
The New Orleans Saints started the season as one of the hottest teams in the NFL, leading the entire league in scoring through the opening two weeks. They have lost all four games since that point and got some more bad news as QB Derek Carr suffered an oblique injury, which kept him out last week and will keep him out for potentially a few more weeks. This opened the door for Spencer Rattler, who was selected with the 150th overall pick, to receive his first start last week in which he completed 55% of his passes for 243 yards, one touchdown and a pair of interceptions. He will look to build off this against the Broncos but has a difficult matchup as Denver ranks fourth in points and yards allowed.
With this game set to serve as a bit of a measuring stick for each team and young quarterback, here are my top Pick6 picks for the Thursday night showdown.
Bo Nix More Than 25.5 Rushing Yards
The Denver Broncos continue to live with the growing pains of their rookie quarterback. Bo Nix has shown strides in several areas, but he has especially shined with his legs in recent weeks. The Oregon product has flashed the ability to ad-lib plays and has turned a broken play into positive yards on numerous occasions.
Nix has attempted four or more rushing attempts in all six games this season. He is averaging 30 rushing yards per game and had a career-high 61 rushing yards last week. While the Broncos will have to find the best balance moving forward, Nix will take what the defense gives him and take off when there is a lane.
Looking at the Saints’ defense, they rank 23rd in scoring and have allowed more yards than any other team in the league. They also allowed 29 rushing yards to Baker Mayfield last week and Nix has a somewhat similar physical profile. If anything, Nix is a more willing runner with higher top-end speed.
Count on Nix to continue relying on his legs and to be looking to make plays. It feels as if he found something last week with a few lengthy runs and will lean on this again against the Saints. The 25.5 margin of rushing yards is too low based on his usage, so expect Nix to begin to climb into the conversation of the more notable mobile quarterbacks around the NFL.
Courtland Sutton More Than 3.5 Receptions
The production of Courtland Sutton has been a bit sporadic due to the inconsistent level of play from Bo Nix. The rookie quarterback has been held to under 140 passing yards twice this season, including throwing for only 60 yards in Week 4. While these growing pains are noteworthy, it isn’t a question of how high Sutton ranks in the offensive pecking order.
On the season as a whole, Sutton has been targeted 47 times. No other Broncos wide receiver has recorded more than 19 this season. Overall, Sutton has recorded 21 receptions for 277 yards and a pair of touchdowns. He is averaging 3.5 receptions per game, but has recorded as many as seven in a game and cleared the over 3.5-margin in three of the six games. This all comes while not being able to connect on more than half the passes that have been sent his direction, which has left potential production on the board.
Nix has a great chance to continue trending in the right direction against a poor New Orleans defense. It ranks 29th in passing yards allowed this season and last in overall yards given up. While the 45.5 receiving yards is also an intriguing option for Sutton, the 3.5 reception margin allows you to still clear this number even if the opportunities come on short passes. Sutton is clearly Nix’s No. 1 option and will be given plenty of action against the porous Saints’ defense.
Spencer Rattler Less Than 181.5 Passing Yards
The game plan was never for Spencer Rattler to step into the starting lineup this soon, but the injury to Derek Carr has forced the Saints’ hands. The Oklahoma and South Carolina product will be a name to keep an eye on in the long run but does not seem ready for a starting quarterback opportunity at the moment. This is also a near-nightmare matchup for the fifth-round pick.
So far this season, the Broncos rank fourth in the NFL in both points and yards allowed. They also rank fifth in passing yards and passing touchdowns as well as the second-best in net yards per pass attempt. While Rattler threw for 243 yards last week, this occurred against a Buccaneers defense that ranks 26th in yards allowed and 28th in passing yards given up. The week prior, Tampa Bay gave up 509 passing yards to Kirk Cousins, which ranked 15th all-time in terms of most passing yards.
Expect a dose of reality to hit Rattler in this matchup as he continues to adjust to the NFL. The Broncos will be a significant leap in defensive ability that Rattler should be expected to have difficulty with. Expect this to be a slow-paced grind of a game in which neither quarterback lights up the box score. There will be better days ahead for Rattler, but expect him to fail to reach the 181.5 passing yard total in this matchup.
Alvin Kamara More Than 106.5 Rushing & Receiving Yards
Alvin Kamara was the most dominant running back in the NFL to start this season. He recorded 83 or more yards on the ground in each of the first three games and 119 or more yards from scrimmage in each of the first four games. Kamara also made his way into the end zone six times during this stretch.
While his statistical impact has reduced slightly since that time, he remains the driving force of the Saints’ offense. Last week against the Buccaneers, Kamara was limited to just 64 yards from scrimmage, which marked his lowest total of the season. While the Denver defense is impressive, it is much weaker against the run than the pass. So far this season, it ranks 14th in rushing yards allowed and has given up 114 rushing yards or greater in four of the six games.
As the Saints seek to get back on the right track and find some consistent offense, expect them to lean on Kamara plenty. Establishing a running game early will make life easier for the young quarterback and they also may look to utilize Kamara in the screen game as a way to get Rattler some easy passes early on. Ultimately, expect Kamara to lead all players in this game in touches and find his way to more than 106.5 rushing and receiving yards. It will be a grind in this low-scoring matchup, but Kamara is built for gaining tough yards and will have plenty of opportunities to do just this.
Wil Lutz More Than 6.5 Kicking Points
So far this season, Wil Lutz has averaged eight kicking points per game. He has tallied 13 field goals already this season and only missed one of these attempts while going nine for nine on extra-point opportunities. The 30-year-old has served as a reliable kicker in the NFL for the past eight years and this marks his second season with the Broncos.
Denver’s offense is moving in the right direction but is still very field goal-dependent. It has tallied nine offensive touchdowns this season compared to 14 field goal opportunities. Only one of Lutz’s field goal attempts this season has come from less than 30 yards out. He has also made as many as four in a game this season.
Expect this to be a low-scoring matchup that very well could come down to the production of the kickers to decide the winner. Lutz has proven capable of doing his job, and the Broncos still have a ways to go before they can be reliably counted on to produce a touchdown as regularly as some other offenses. Expect them to be forced to settle for at least two field goals and for Lutz to tally more than 6.5 kicking points in the matchup.
Javonte Williams More Than 68.5 Rushing and Receiving Yards
Similar to Courtland Sutton’s outlook, Javonte Williams has seen his production correlated to the success of his quarterback. The 24-year-old is the unquestioned No. 1 running back on the team and has carried the ball 59 times this season. Bo Nix ranks second in this category with 37 rush attempts and Jaleel McLaughlin is behind him with 36 carries. Williams is also active in the passing game and has recorded at least one reception in each game, including tallying 145 receiving yards this season.
Overall, Williams has averaged 59.3 yards from scrimmage this season. However, he has been a different running back in recent weeks. In the first three games of the season, Williams tallied just 24 carries for 52 yards combined and 129 total yards from scrimmage over this period. He turned a corner and has had 13 carries or more in the next two games, which he converted for 191 combined yards. Williams then struggled again last week as the Chargers were able to put a full stop to the run game. He had just six carries for 23 yards and 13 yards receiving in the loss.
Heading into this week, Williams has a better matchup against the Saints. He has not played his best football yet this season and this can change in any given week. New Orleans creates a great opportunity for Williams to make his impact felt and there is a strong chance Denver will look to keep the ball on the ground and eat up the clock if it can take a lead. Since he is active in the passing game as well, we are looking toward Williams to record more than 68.5 yards from scrimmage in the matchup.
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Pick6 is a peer-to-peer fantasy variant where you build a lineup (your “Pick Set”) of two or more players and select whether you believe each will outperform their listed stat projection. Enter your Pick Set in Pick6 contests to compete against other users. Get enough picks correct and win a share of cash prizes.
How to Play DraftKings Pick6
Create a Pick Set
Create a Pick Set by choosing two or more players from the same sport and Pick Group (a set of picks available from a group of set competitions). For each player, simply select if you think they’ll have more or less than their listed stat projection. In each Pick Set, you cannot pick the same player twice and you must pick players from at least two different teams.
Enter an Amount
Once you finalize your Pick Set, choose your entry fee amount. Your entries will be automatically distributed into available contests, subject to your confirmation.
Sweat Your Picks
When the games go live, use the My Picks tab to follow your picks in real time to track how your players are performing against their projections and how they stack up against other users.
Compete for Prizes
Make enough correct picks and win a share of the contests’ guaranteed prizes. Any prizes won will be credited to your DraftKings account after contests are finalized.
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