In Week 8, Tyler Allgeier popped off for the biggest fantasy performance of his career. The Cardinals’ RB saw the perfect runout as both teammates in the backfield went down with injuries, allowing him to take on essentially all the work in a soft matchup. The result was over 30 fantasy points against the Cowboys, giving a glimpse of his upside in a workhorse role.
It’s too early to tell whether Jeremiyah Love and Bam Knight will play in Week 9, but if they don’t, is Allgeier a must-start in fantasy with a grasp on this backfield?
Should you start Allgeier if Love and Knight don’t play in Week 9?
The points explosion Tyler Allgeier put on display in Week 8 was something to behold. It was a perfect sequence of events for him – certainly not for his teammates in the backfield – that allowed him to post a career-best line of 36.1 PPR points. Jeremiyah Love, who had just returned from a multi-week absence due to an ankle issue, suffered a new ankle injury and didn’t come back into the game. Fellow halfback Bam Knight was knocked out of the game due to a head injury, leaving Allgeier as the last man standing at running back. With the opportunity, he ran wild. He rushed 11 times for 147 yards and a touchdown, catching all five of his targets for 44 yards and another score.
In the end, Allgeier ended the day as the No. 1 RB on the week in fantasy football. However, we have to consider the circumstances that were involved in that outing – he wasn’t expected to get that kind of volume, and beyond that, the matchup was truly as good as it gets. The Cowboys allow the third-most FPPG to running backs at 26.7 and have one of the worst run defenses in the league, allowing 4.76 YPC and 115.5 rushing yards per game to the position as well. Allgeier won’t play them every week, as much as his fantasy managers likely wish he could do.
Assuming that Love and Knight both miss Week 9 – which seems like a possibility given the fact that the former has dealt with an injury to both ankles already this season – Allgeier would be the top back for the Cardinals again and likely get the majority of the work. Volume of 10+ carries and a handful of targets does feel like a realistic outcome, however, the team would be prepared to elevate another player to the active roster for game day if need be. There would likely be another RB behind him to spell him, with Evan Hull the most probable candidate after serving as the fourth man up on the depth chart but being deemed inactive this past week.
Even if he does see a sizable workload in Week 9, the matchup doesn’t bode well for fantasy production. Arizona faces off against the Seahawks, one of the NFL’s most formidable defenses. They won the Super Bowl thanks to that unit’s prowess last year, and prior to their Week 8 contest on Monday Night Football, they ranked third in EPA/play allowed as well as second in success rate and explosive play rate allowed to opponents. Beyond that, their rushing defense is truly a force to be reckoned with at third in YPC allowed to RBs (3.40) and fifth in rushing yards allowed per game to the position (71.0).
That’s truly a horrendous matchup for the Cardinals, who will also be on the road in Seattle and are 11.5-point underdogs on DraftKings Sportsbook as of Monday. Against the defending champions, there’s a strong chance that Arizona is forced to abandon the run entirely and play from behind, which would mean fewer touches for Allgeier beyond passing-downs work. Even if this is a close game, he probably won’t be able to find much running room against a truly elite defense. Beyond that, career backup Gardner Minshew is expected to start for the Cards after leading the heroic comeback against the Cowboys. He played extremely well last week, but the larger sample of his career doesn’t support consistent high-end quarterback play, which certainly isn’t ideal as he’s elevated to start against a top defense.
There’s a lot of uncertainty in this matchup, but there’s one more note for Allgeier here. He was on the Week 8 injury report and played through a toe injury that did affect his practice availability prior to the game against Dallas – he may still not be fully healthy himself, though it’s less of a consideration given what he showed.
Last week’s breakout was incredible for Allgeier, but it was a product of the circumstances and matchup that isn’t necessarily translatable into future production. Even if Love and Knight don’t play in Week 9, he’s not a name you’ll want in fantasy lineups unless he’s a FLEX play, so temper expectations accordingly.
