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Will Cade Otton score the first touchdown on Thursday Night Football?

Will Cade Otton score the first touchdown on Thursday Night Football?

NFL NFL Picks NFL Betting Rail

Published:

By: Stan Son

The short answer? Probably not.

But there is a more than Lloyd Christmas chance of it happening, and the odds reflect that. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Bijan Robinson is the favorite to score the first touchdown at +425. Tyler Allgeier has only one less red-zone opportunity than Bijan on the season. The next is Mike Evans at +800. Otton is down at +1700, the 10th-lowest odds.

Here’s my case:

I think Baker Mayfield is going to have a great game. Atlanta is dead last in pressuring the quarterback while being the 10th most generous in passing success rate. Sure, Chris Godwin leads the Buccaneers in targets with 34 on the season, being a beacon of consistency with eight, eight, nine and nine through four games. Mike Evans is second with 29, coming off a Week 4 in which he was peppered with 14 targets. Otton is third on the team with 21 targets, and that is after receiving only two in each of the first two contests. Over the last two weeks, he’s garnered eight and nine targets.

Evans and Godwin both received two red zone looks last week, but Otton has received at least one red zone look in each of the last three games.

While targets are fairly predictable, touchdowns are the complete opposite. I’ll take double the odds for a player who could see eight to nine targets.

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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

Stan Son
Stan joined DraftKings in December of 2020. It was a glorious time, except for that whole COVID thing, when we got Madden streams and boisterous bat flips from the KBO. I was brought on board to bring some West Coast flavor. I especially love hoops, and most of my content is in that arena. When I walk along the beach, strumming my guitar, the beat that I hear is not one of crashing waves. No, it is the beat of the ball bouncing off the hardwood with highs provided by the squeaks of the sneakers. Ball is life.
Disclaimer

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.