Week 2 will kick off on Thursday with a banger of matchup between the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins. As always, there are a plethora of ways to bet on this game on DraftKings Sportsbook. I’ll give you some of my best bets and predictions for this matchup.
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Miami Dolphins -2.5 -108
Both the Dolphins and Bills were some of the best teams against the spread in the league. The Dolphins were 11-7 while the Bills went 12-7. Where the Dolphins really excelled was at home, going 6-3 ATS and 7-2 straight up. I’m under the belief that type of success will continue here in Week 2 when facing off against the Bills.
What really gets my attention is the lack of offensive weapons for the Bills. They were able to put up 34 points against the Cardinals but what would this offense have looked like if they were forced to throw the ball more? Allen only made 23 pass attempts in this game and was good when he needed, completing 18 of them for 232 yards and two touchdowns. However, this Dolphins secondary is lightyears apart from what the Cardinals have. Last week, Trevor Lawrence only threw at a receiver covered by Kendall Fuller and Jalen Ramsey two times, both going toward Fuller. Ramsey didn’t even have a target against him. This week in coverage, we’d expect Keon Coleman against Ramsey while and Mack Hollins with Fuller. These are two mismatches that’ll favor the Dolphins.
The Bills will likely try to run the ball again and at least from what we saw last week, they could have some success. The Jaguars averaged just under five yards per carry and 128 yards. I’m not convinced this is the type of leaky run defense the Dolphins will have throughout the season, so I’m not ready to sound the alarm just yet. I do believe, however, that the Dolphins will take an early lead and force the Bills to throw the ball more, which this matchup doesn’t favor. With the offensive firepower the Dolphins have, barring they make it to the stadium without incident, I think this game tilts toward the Dolphins.
Khalil Shakir over 3.5 receptions -105
If you notice above, I mentioned to Bills receivers that are in tough matchups with Coleman and Hollins. The receiver I didn’t mention was Shakir, who I think will be in a great spot to see a good chunk of targets from Josh Allen. Shakir continues to be the primary slot receiver, lining up there on 26 of his 33 snaps in Week 1. This picks up right where he was last year, playing in the slot on 60% of his snaps all of last season.
This is the best matchup against the Bills receivers, as Shakir will be lined up against Kader Kohou. Last season, he was targeted against 85 times and allowed 71 catches for an average of 11.1 YPR and seven touchdowns. The Jags receivers caught four of the six targets against him last week for 67 yards. I think this is where Allen will be looking during this Week 2 matchup, which makes this one of my favorite props of this game.
Jaelan Phillips over 0.25 sacks +250
Phillips made his presence known in Week 1 against the Jaguars, earning his first sack of the season. The talented edge rusher is having his reps limited during practice this week but should be a full go after logging 34 snaps last week. When healthy, he’s been a nightmare for opposing quarterbacks and should be the same for Allen this week. Last week, the Cardinals only had Allen under pressure on eight of his 30 dropbacks but were still able to sack him twice. With Phillips back in the mix for the Dolphins, I like him to go over 0.25 sacks on Thursday.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.
