Joe Fagnano Passing Attempts Pick for Ravens vs. Jaguars

The Baltimore Ravens entered Sunday’s game against the Buffalo Bills with hope; their division remained wide-open, and two-time MVP quarterback Lamar Jackson was set to return from his high-ankle sprain.

On its first offensive play of the game, Baltimore’s hopes faded instantly, as Jackson suffered a thumb injury that required surgery and could potentially end his season. Just 10 offensive snaps later, backup quarterback Tyler Huntley sustained a season-ending turf toe injury, leaving emergency third quarterback Joe Fagnano and, if needed, running back Justice Hill, to finish out the game.

Fagnano will likely go back to a bench role next weekend, as the Ravens have agreed in principle to a trade for the Arizona Cardinals’ Jacoby Brissett, who started each of the first eight games of the season before being benched in favor of Gardner Minshew II.

Tonight, Fagnano will make his first career start on Thursday Night Football when Baltimore hosts the Jacksonville Jaguars at 8:15 p.m. ET.

The Ravens are 10-point underdogs for tonight’s game at DraftKings Sportsbook (+410 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 39.5. Jacksonville is -550 on the Moneyline.

Below, I’ll break down Fagnano’s passing attempts prop bet in his starting debut.

Joe Fagnano Passing Attempts Prop Bet vs. Jaguars

Joe Fagnano U28.5 Passing Attempts (-102)

After Jackson and Huntley went a combined two-for-five on their snaps, Fagnano basically played a starter’s load on Sunday against the Bills, attempting 21 passes. Given the fact that he played 78% of Baltimore’s offensive snaps, so he’d have fallen short of this prop even if he’d taken every single one. That also doesn’t take into account the fact that he was executing a game-plan built for Jackson, who — by passer rating and adjusted yards per attempt — is the second-most efficient quarterback in NFL history. Declan Doyle can’t 100% eschew the passing game, but Cooper Rush never topped 20 passing attempts in his 2025 starts and Huntley did so only once (22 against the Bears), albeit with Todd Monken calling plays.

Although Huntley attempted at least 30 in each of his three starts this season, he’s also a better passer than Fagnan, who turned 10 completions into just 91 yards and threw an interception. Unless Doyle sees something in practice this week, there’s no reason to operate a pass-first approach, as even Jackson attempted 25 or fewer passes in four of his five starts (although he left two of them early with injury). Derrick Henry is more than capable of handling a big load, as he leads the league in rushing attempts this season and has done so four prior times in his career. He hasn’t had his most efficient season, averaging a career-low 4.0 yards per attempt, but his 53.2% success rate still ranks 13th among qualifiers and he ranks 15th by Pro Football Focus’ offensive grades. Asking Henry to run 25 times and Hill five sounds like a better offensive plan than forcing Fagnano to throw 30 times.

Plus, while the Jaguars’ elite run-stuffers could make life difficult for Henry, their secondary is just as stingy. Opposing quarterbacks have thrown on them the 11th-fewest times, and they are one of just three teams to intercept more passes than they have allowed touchdowns. Two of Jacksonville’s three starting cornerbacks, Travis Hunter and Jourdan Lewis, have limited opponents to a sub-70 passer rating on their targets, and the Ravens don’t have a ton of wide receiver depth beyond Zay Flowers as is. The Jaguars also rank second in time of possession, so they will control the clock, limiting Fagnano’s opportunities.