Round 2 action is almost underway in New York! In this article, I’ll break down my US Open best bets for Day 3, featuring some of the biggest names on tour.
Without further ado, let’s get into it.
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Ben Shelton -5.5 Games vs. Roberto Bautista Agut (-140)
The 21-year-old American is off to a hot start in New York.
Shelton entered this tournament in strong form, fresh off a respectable three-set defeat to Alexander Zverev in the Cincinnati quarters. That momentum carried over into his first-round match against former US Open champ Dominic Thiem, as the youngster emphatically moved on with a 6-4, 6-2, 6-2 result. Everything was clicking for Shelton on Monday, as he won a ridiculous 91% of his first service points (41/45). He also made the most of his break opportunities, converting on five of 11 chances.
Shelton is in the midst of his strongest year to date, boasting a 1.07 dominance ratio on hard court. In Grand Slams, that number jumps all the way up to 1.12. The Atlanta native has faced off against Bautista Agut once, clinching a straight-set victory in the 2024 Australian Open. Considering his form and recent history in Queens, I expect him to cruise again in their next meeting.
While you’re reading my US Open best bets, check out my full tournament preview with predictions!
Brandon Nakashima -4.5 Games vs. Arthur Cazaux (-125)
There may just be another American on the rise!
Brandon Nakashima is having one heck of a season. The 23-year-old boasts a 1.05 dominance ratio in 2024, and virtually every major stat has improved across the board compared to last year. Win percentage, hold, break and ace rate, etc. It’s all trending upwards for Nakashima.
The University of Virginia product has pulled off four massive wins in August, taking down Tommy Paul, Taylor Fritz, Arthur Fils and most recently Holger Rune. Nakashima’s straight-set victory over Rune continued a bizarre trend of dominance for the American in that particular matchup, as he’s now 3-0 in their head-to-head meetings.
As for his opponent, Cazaux is coming off a strong Round 1 win over Pablo Carreno-Busta, but he’s been relatively inconsistent over the last few months. In fact, Cazaux hasn’t won consecutive tour matches since February 27 in Dubai. I expect that to remain the case on Wednesday as Nakashima cruises into the third round. Considering his form, this could be just the start of a very deep run for the American in Queens.
Those are my US Open best bets for Day 3 in New York! Stay tuned for more picks later this week.
