The 2024 US Open kicks off Monday, August 26! In case you missed it, I recently broke down the biggest storylines heading into the men’s tournament. In this article I’m going to break down my US Open predictions in the men’s bracket, highlighting my winner, a sleeper pick and which American I expect to make the deepest run.
Without further ado, let’s get into it.
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2024 US Open Winner: Carlos Alcaraz (+175)
Let’s be real, there are three players to consider when making your prediction for who will lift the US Open trophy.
If you’re picking anyone not named Carlos Alcaraz, Novak Djokovic or Jannik Sinner, you’re expecting the tournament to play out in a very peculiar manner.
Let’s start with Sinner. The reigning No. 1 player in the world has had a season full of ups and downs. It began on a high note as the Italian clinched his first career Grand Slam title at the Australian Open, but since he’s dealt with injuries, disappointing slam exits, and most recently doping allegations. The 23-year-old was ultimately cleared of any wrongdoing after two failed drug tests at Indian Wells — much to the ire of many of his colleagues — but he still has on-court questions to answer heading into the final Grand Slam of the season. Sinner is coming off a Cincinnati Open tune-up title, but he’s dealing with a lingering hip issue and has yet to prove he can beat Alcaraz or Djokovic on the biggest stage consistently.
Moving onto Novak, his prospects are clouded in ambiguity. The Serbian is one Grand Slam win shy of breaking Margaret Court’s record for the most singles titles by any player, but he’s 0-for-3 so far in 2024. Djokovic is fresh off a gold medal performance in Paris, but he only needed to win two sets against Carlos Alcaraz to clinch that title and looked very tired for most of the second set. I have my doubts that he can get the job done in a full tournament of best-of-five set matches.
So, that leaves us with Alcaraz. The 21-year-old set the tennis world on fire in June and July, clinching French Open and Wimbledon titles. However, his form has dipped lately, losing to Djokovic in the Olympics and bowing out early to Gael Monfils in Cincinnati. Early exits in tune-up tournaments aren’t really a concern for Carlitos, as he suffered similar defeats in tourneys prior to Roland Garros and Wimbledon. We’ve seen Alcaraz get the job done in New York before, and at his best he’s by far the most difficult player in the world to win three sets against. With Sinner and Djokovic both raising significant red flags, I’m rolling with the favorite.
Don’t sleep on Alexander Zverev
If someone outside of the top three is going to shock the world and win this tournament, it’ll almost certainly be Zverev, who is +1000 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Sascha has been knocking on the door of his first Grand Slam title all year, blowing a 2-1 set lead to Alcaraz in the French Open final and a 2-0 set lead over Daniil Medvedev in the Australian Open semis. Jumping out to a hot start has never been a problem for the 27-year-old, but finishing the job is. That said, Zverev does boast a strong 5-5 head-to-head record against Alcaraz, and he’s a respectable 4-8 against Djokovic. The German is certainly capable of taking down one of the top seeds, and there’s always a possibility he misses them if other upsets occur in earlier rounds.
At 6’6, Zverev’s game revolves around his powerful serving presence, as demonstrated by a ridiculous 91.4% hold rate in 2024. He’s also cleaned up his second serve points this year, winning a career-high 55.5% of them while boasting an impressive 1.26 dominance ratio. If anyone is poised to capitalize on mistakes made by Djokovic, Alcaraz or Sinner in this tournament, it’s Zverev.
Which American will make the deepest run?
From a pure talent perspective, Taylor Fritz still seems to boast the most complete game of any American on tour. However, he just hasn’t proven it consistently on the biggest stage. The 26-year-old has never made it out of the quarter-final in a Grand Slam, and he’s entering Queens fresh off two early exits in Montreal and Cincinnati.
Tommy Paul is one of the easiest guys on tour to root for, and his abilities have developed further than anyone could have predicted a few years ago. However, against elite opponents his game tends to be reduced to that of an overachieving counterpuncher.
Sebastian Korda is an incredibly promising prospect, but at 24 years old there are still aspects of his game that need to be rounded out in order to inspire true confidence at Grand Slams.
So, that leaves us with two options: Frances Tiafoe and Ben Shelton. Quite frankly, I like both of their chances to make a deep run in New York. Tiafoe made the semi-final in 2022, pushing ultimate champion Carlos Alcaraz to five sets. He enters this tournament in strong form after defeating Lorenzo Musetti and Holger Rune en route to a Cincinnati final loss against Sinner. Shelton is another recent semi-final participant at the US Open, reaching that stage just last year before losing in straight sets to 2023 champ Djokovic. His game is less complete compared to Tiafoe’s, but the youngster has a much more dangerous weapon in that powerhouse of a lefty serve.
It’s hard to decide who I believe will make a deeper run without seeing the full draw, but if I had to pick, I would opt for Shelton.
Those are my 2024 US Open predictions! Stay tuned for more US Open predictions throughout the week and daily best bets once the tournament kicks off on Monday, August 26.
