Things can change in a flash during the fantasy football season. In preseason, Ashton Jeanty was being drafted as a fantasy RB1, with many owners staking their entire season on a bounce-back campaign for the Raiders running back. Halfway through the season, Jeanty isn’t even looking like the starter on his own team. Is this Mike Washington Jr.’s backfield now? And does this make him the top fantasy pickup of Week 9?
Year-to-Date Production
After a rocky rookie season, expectations were high for Ashton Jeanty heading into year two. He has a new quarterback, a new coach, and a new direction. Unfortunately, he also entered the season with a new backup; Vegas took Mike Washington Jr. in the fourth round and didn’t hold back in praising him during training camp and preseason. But there was no talk of Jeanty losing the starting job; if anything, a good backup to keep him fresh and provide a change of pace was welcome.
And here we are. In Las Vegas’ Week 8 win over the Jets, Washington Jr. was handed the rock 25 times for 83 yards. By contrast, Jeanty received only two carries. All the receiving work did go to Ashton—he had three catches for 64 yards while Washington Jr. didn’t draw a target—but the message was clear. Mike Washington Jr. was the starter last week, and Jeanty was a passing down back.
It’s the culmination of a trend that has been brewing for quite some time. Incredibly, Jeanty’s carries have either stayed the same or gone down with each passing week. Here are his rush totals from weeks 1-8: 23, 21, 19, 15, 10, 10, 8, 2. Averaging only 3.1 yards per carry this year, it’s clear that Klint Kubiak and the coaching staff are running out of faith in his ability as a runner.
Interestingly, Washington Jr.’s usage only spiked this last week. Before his breakout against the Jets, the rookie hadn’t gotten double-digit carries in any game this year. Some of that ties to the game script, as the Raiders sustained a four-game losing streak while Jeanty’s usage took a nosedive. Jeanty has also remained the dominant passing down back; he has at least three catches in every game this season, while Washington Jr. has only three total receptions.
It’s clear that something has changed in Las Vegas’ backfield. But how valuable is that going to be for fantasy going forward? Let’s look at the rest of the schedule.
Rest of Season Outlook
Regardless of who controls this backfield, the matchup is favorable. Starting with San Francisco next week, Las Vegas has eight games left on the fantasy schedule, plus a bye week. Five of those eight matchups are against teams in the bottom half of points allowed to running backs. That includes a potential playoff schedule against the Chargers, Broncos, and Titans in Weeks 14-16; all three have struggled to stop running backs from racking up points.
If Washington Jr. indeed has the job, he has a strong schedule down the stretch. But is that worth blowing your FAAB budget on?
Fantasy Verdict
Here’s a big problem for Washington Jr.: regardless of who gets the carries, Las Vegas struggles to move the ball on the ground. The rookie’s 4.3 YPC is much stronger than Jeanty’s 3.1 mark, but most of that comes from a change-of-pace role, and he did quite the Jeanty impression in Week 8.
Washington Jr. is more than worth the add, but he’s not the kind of addition to blow your whole budget on. Jeanty still has a stranglehold on the receiving-down work, severely limiting Washington Jr.’s appeal in PPR leagues. That’s a big deal on the Raiders; they have one of the worst defenses in the league and are constantly airing it out just to keep pace. And despite all their scoring, they’ve had only four rushing scores this season, split evenly between Washington Jr., Jeanty, Dylan Laube, and quarterback Kirk Cousins.
You can throw a good chunk of cash at Washington Jr., but it’s important to temper expectations. He might be FLEX-worthy or an RB2 in the right matchups, but he’s not going to save your season.
