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Is Kaelon Black a must-start if Christian McCaffrey sits in Week 9?

Is Kaelon Black a must-start if Christian McCaffrey sits in Week 9?

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By: Griffin Wong

Once again, the San Francisco 49ers have been decimated by injuries, and once again, the 49ers are winning games. Despite losing Nick Bosa, Deebo Samuel, Mike Evans, and Ricky Pearsall (among others) to injuries, San Francisco went 6-1 before its Week 8 bye.

However, in their first practice after the bye, the 49ers suffered another blow, as running back Christian McCaffrey did not practice while dealing with a hamstring injury. Given McCaffrey’s lengthy history of soft-tissue injuries, his status will be worth monitoring throughout the week.

If McCaffrey can’t go on Sunday against the Las Vegas Raiders, third-round rookie Kaelon Black could be fantasy-viable. Black has been the ninth-most added running back in Yahoo Sports fantasy leagues this week.

Results and Usage

McCaffrey hasn’t been quite the workhorse he was in 2025; last season, he took 311 carries for 1,202 yards and 10 scores, while he’s recorded 84 carries for 389 yards and eight touchdowns so far. However, because of his efficiency and his reliability in goal line situations, he’s still been a reliable fantasy option, recording 16 or more DraftKings fantasy points in each of his last six games. Black hasn’t been too far behind; he’s taken 57 carries, turning them into 233 yards and a score. His success rate is slightly higher than McCaffrey’s, although he’s lost 0.25 yards per attempt relative to expectations.

Black has proven himself capable of handling a larger role. In the Week 1 win over the Los Angeles Rams in Melbourne, Black turned 14 carries into 65 yards, garnering four more carries on eight fewer snaps than McCaffrey. Then, in Week 7, Black turned 12 carries into 63 yards and a score (11.9 DraftKings FPTS), making himself fantasy-viable for a week for the first time in his young career. Black split carries almost evenly with Roman Hemby last season with the national champion Indiana Hoosiers, though he was the Hoosiers’ go-to option inside the red zone.

Future Outlook

Although he was plenty productive in the Week 7 defeat to the Atlanta Falcons, Black isn’t worth playing if McCaffrey does suit up. His ceiling is also lower than McCaffrey’s, as he doesn’t offer much as a receiver, managing only four catches for 36 yards in his senior season at Indiana and three catches for four yards so far in the NFL. However, his rushing grade isn’t significantly lower than McCaffrey’s, and he has a similar elusiveness score and more breakaway runs. He also has a similar running style, with a similar ratio of zone and gap runs, so San Francisco shouldn’t have to change its offensive game plan too much if Black is its top back.

Fortunately for Black, Kyle Shanahan’s scheme is relatively run-forward, as he calls runs at the 10th-highest rate. Overall, the 49ers rank 15th in total rushing attempts and have been rather efficient on such looks, managing the sixth-most yards per attempt. Since Black isn’t much of a receiver, San Francisco could also opt to call more runs on plays in which he’d typically opt to throw a screen pass or dump-off to McCaffrey. Plus, if Evans and Samuel both miss this weekend, the 49ers will be quite thin at wideout, which could leave a handoff as the most realistic option.

Black has a pretty friendly matchup on Sunday. The Raiders have given up the seventh-most DraftKings FPTS per game to opposing running backs this season, including the most rushing yards and the fourth-most touchdowns, so while they might have the personnel to stop McCaffrey receptions, Black should be effective on the ground. Overall, Las Vegas has allowed the most rushing yards per attempt to players of any position. The Raiders have also given up the most red zone touchdowns, and short-range scores will be critical for Black, given his lack of explosiveness.

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Griffin Wong has been a content writer at DK Network since November 2024. Prior to that, he was the former sports editor for the Harvard Crimson, where he covered the football team for two years and earned four Story of the Year nominations from the Associated College Press. A lifelong Lakers and Dodgers fan, Griffin’s favorite athlete of all time is Kobe Bryant. When he’s not writing, Griffin is usually skiing, running, golfing, or playing basketball — badly.
Disclaimer

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

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