All the sudden, this waiver period, it seemed a little bit like the delicious glimmer of opportunity, of poetic possibilities, swept fantasy football managers into a bit of sensationalism about this season again. Indeed, there was plenty to be excited about, if you chose to ignore some of the violence that freed up the depth chart slots. I mean, really: A little bit of Omar Cooper Jr., here, a little bit of Jordyn Tyson there. Didn’t get them? You probably got Jaylin Noel. Or Treylon Burks/Antonio Williams. Maybe someone in your league dropped Chris Godwin and you snatched him back up before Baker Mayfield starts for the Bucs on Sunday. Corey Kiner, Samaje Perine, Tyrone Tracy—how’re those for three names you might have tossed to the end of your bench in PPR leagues for receiving production out of the backfield slots? Add in familiar names circling back to fantasy relevancy again—Kyle Pitts, Michael Mayer, C.J. Stroud—and we’ve got ourselves a little chaotic party. And we all know chaos is a ladder. If you’re here, you’re a climber. And week after week after bloody, glorious week, we’ve got a win to summit.
Happy Fantasy Friday once again—hopefully you stuck & moved on your lineup construction and in all other competitive endeavors this past week. I’m no prisoner of the moment, but the Week 7 waiver period of this season may be one we look back on as a fulcrum for championship-winning lineups. There were that many guys to be excited about. How to sort through it all, though? Of course—I’m here with the Five Lists of Five: Week 7 edition. The war mind edition.
For the (somehow) newly-ordained: Soundbite-length blurbs with advanced analysis on my favorite plays of the week. We begin now with my Top five must-start wide receivers for fantasy football Week 7. Here are my other offerings in this edition:
- Top five must-start RBs for fantasy football Week 7
- Top five FLEX plays for fantasy football Week 7
- Top five sleepers and upside plays for fantasy football Week 7
- Top five streamer plays for fantasy football Week 7
All data provided by Fantasy Points Data Suite 2.0, unless otherwise noted.
Fantasy football Week 7: Top five wide receivers to start
Christian Watson &(!) Matthew Golden, GB (at Lions)
Christian Watson has been chewing through zone coverage, and Detroit plays it on 78% of dropbacks. Watson has gained 3.26 YPRR against zone compared with 0.74 against man. Jordan Love has repeatedly challenged and punished defenses with Watson downfield, including eight targets and 145 air yards in last week’s three-catch night. Watson also leads the NFL with nine end-zone targets. He’s an absolutely elite scoring threat against precisely the coverage packages this wounded defense relies on the most.
Fellow Packer Matthew Golden logged six catches for 104 yards and a touchdown against Dallas, then left two other potential scores on the field with drops, which are his glaring bugaboo. He has to finish more catches; if he does, his fantasy production could be borderline dragon-born. Love fed him through the spectacular drops, sending 13 targets and 203 air yards his way. Golden’s got a 2.52 YPRR and earns targets on 28% of his routes. In total, he’s at 18.9 expected PPR points per game. I favor him of the two for catch volume alone. Golden has now cleared 100 yards in consecutive games, and fantasy managers haven’t even seen points from his best scoring chances.
The Packers rank fifth in PROE, and Detroit has allowed a league-high 44.9 expected PPR points per game to receivers. Green Bay starts Watson and Golden outside, with fellow receiver Savion Williams taking the primary slot job. Both practiced in full this week; both are surefire must-starts.
Chris Olave, NO (vs. Steelers [London])
After such a hot start, New Orleans has become an exasperating place for Saints receiver Chris Olave to see five-plus catches anymore. Tyler Shough has thrown for only 240 yards over two games, leaving Olave with consecutive four-catch outings after he opened with four straight games of at least eight receptions and 86 yards. Olave still ran 81% of the Saints’ routes last week despite illness and their heavier rushing formations, so it’s not availability. It’s just an uninspiring offense at its worst.
Still, Pittsburgh shows Olave a familiar coverage problem he manipulates beautifully. Against Cover 3 and Cover 4, which the Steelers use on 61.5% of snaps, Olave’s got a 3.16 YPRR, and has drawn targets on 34% of 99 routes. Shough has managed only 6.35 YPA against those same coverages, so New Orleans would do well to lean on Olave for shorter completions. Olave is the perfect weapon to settle their young, struggling quarterback down in an international setting. Olave still averages 20.2 expected PPR points per game, even through this rut.
I’m starting him for the reliability in Paris. Pittsburgh allows just one passing touchdown per game, but Tampa Bay receiver Emeka Egbuka caught seven passes against them last week. Olave can earn useful PPR work even if Shough labors through another uneven four quarters.
Tee Higgins, CIN (at Ravens)
Tee Higgins torches man coverage this year to the tune of 5.76 YPRR. Baltimore uses it on 39% of dropbacks, fifth-most in the league. Higgins has drawn 43% of Cincinnati’s targets against man; Joe Burrow absolutely loves him in these looks. Burrow exploits these sorts of defenses through his big outside 1A receiver, and the Ravens will have to decide how often they can afford to give him that opportunity, what with Ja’Marr Chase lining up opposite.
If Baltimore’s playcalling leans further toward zone, against which Higgins has managed 1.68 YPRR, we might be sunk, here. Ja’Marr Chase will also demand plenty of Burrow’s targets, and is a fantastic zone-beater. urrow threw four touchdowns against Miami in his last game despite passing for only 190 yards; he can finish drives without a huge yardage afternoon, but this rivalry game is set up to be a shootout. And you know Burrow’s just gonna wanna throw all afternoon. Higgins will be his first read against Baltimore’s man-to-man coverages, almost certainly.
Garrett Wilson, NYJ (vs. Dolphins)
Let’s buy in on a bounceback for Jets receiver Garrett Wilson after his four-catch, 44-yard afternoon against New England. He still ran 94% of New York’s routes and has caught 35 of 48 targets for 418 yards and three touchdowns this season. Wilson has secured 72.9% of his targets and averaged 8.7 yards per target, elevating Geno Smith to a 120.0 passer rating when throwing his way. Through Week 5, Wilson also led NFL receivers in open score (91), a tracking-based measure of how well receivers get open.
Fellow receiver Omar Cooper Jr. immediately commanded seven targets in his return, giving Smith another productive option while Wilson continued playing almost every passing snap. Wilson has topped 100 yards twice, including seven catches for 104 yards against Cleveland two weeks ago, and averaged 15.8 PPR points through six games.
Miami has allowed opponents to complete 87 of 97 throws traveling fewer than 10 air yards, where Smith already sends 75.6% of his attempts. I like the Smith–Wilson DFS stack for a reception-heavy afternoon, although New York has converted only six of 16 red-zone visits into touchdowns.
Tetairoa McMillan, CAR (vs. Buccaneers)
Bryce Young has been flinging the ball downfield, and Panthers receiver Tetairoa McMillan has the targets to show for it. The Panthers have exceeded +15% neutral-script PROE in three of their last four games, and Young leads qualified quarterbacks in completions traveling at least 20 air yards per game. McMillan earned nine targets and 103 air yards against Philadelphia, catching six passes for 86 yards. Carolina continues giving him chances to stretch the field, with work worth 17.2 expected PPR points per game.
Tampa Bay plays man on 36% of dropbacks, and McMillan has gained 1.57 YPRR against man compared with 2.71 against zone. He nevertheless commands 24% of Carolina’s targets against man; Young continues looking for him when defenders tighten their coverage. Fellow Panthers receiver Jalen Coker earns substantial work, too, and McMillan has sustained his opportunities alongside him. I like how persistently Carolina attacks through both receivers. McMillan belongs in my lineup as a WR2 with nuclear WR1 upside this weekend against the Bucs.
