All the sudden, this waiver period, it seemed a little bit like the delicious glimmer of opportunity, of poetic possibilities, swept fantasy football managers into a bit of sensationalism about this season again. Indeed, there was plenty to be excited about, if you chose to ignore some of the violence that freed up the depth chart slots. I mean, really: A little bit of Omar Cooper Jr., here, a little bit of Jordyn Tyson there. Didn’t get them? You probably got Jaylin Noel. Or Treylon Burks/Antonio Williams. Maybe someone in your league dropped Chris Godwin and you snatched him back up before Baker Mayfield starts for the Bucs on Sunday. Corey Kiner, Samaje Perine, Tyrone Tracy—how’re those for three names you might have tossed to the end of your bench in PPR leagues for receiving production out of the backfield slots? Add in familiar names circling back to fantasy relevancy again—Kyle Pitts, Michael Mayer, C.J. Stroud—and we’ve got ourselves a little chaotic party. And we all know chaos is a ladder. If you’re here, you’re a climber. And week after week after bloody, glorious week, we’ve got a win to summit.
Happy Fantasy Friday once again—hopefully you stuck & moved on your lineup construction and in all other competitive endeavors this past week. I’m no prisoner of the moment, but the Week 7 waiver period of this season may be one we look back on as a fulcrum for championship-winning lineups. There were that many guys to be excited about. How to sort through it all, though? Of course—I’m here with the Five Lists of Five: Week 7 edition. The war mind edition.
For the (somehow) newly-ordained: Soundbite-length blurbs with advanced analysis on my favorite plays of the week. We begin now with my Top five FLEX plays for fantasy football Week 7. Here are my other offerings in this edition:
- Top five must-start RBs for fantasy football Week 7
- Top five must-start WRs for fantasy football Week 7
- Top five sleepers and upside plays for fantasy football Week 7
- Top five streamer plays for fantasy football Week 7
All data provided by Fantasy Points Data Suite 2.0, unless otherwise noted.
Fantasy football Week 7: Top five FLEX plays to start
Tucker Kraft, GB (at Lions)
Enter the fantasy FLEX matchup of the week, and it’s yet another Packer. Detroit has defended tight ends wretchedly, allowing seven to reach double-digit PPR points across only five games. Tucker Kraft is the lucky duck an opponent conceding a league-high 26.9 expected PPR points per game to his position. He enters with seven targets per game over the last month, earning opportunities worth 14.5 expected PPR points while scoring only 10.9.
Green Bay fed him fairly consistently against the Cowboys amidst their hungry young wideout core. Kraft ran routes on 73% of dropbacks and drew a target on 25% of them, catching five of eight targets for 37 yards. He worked at a short 4.0-yard aDOT while the Packers sent Watson and Golden deeper, both outside and over the middle.
Josh Jacobs is returning, which could feasibly trim the passing volume. Green Bay has averaged just 1.3 yards before contact per rush without him, and that’s both because of some uninspiring running and a middling offensive line. Jordan Love averages 280.7 passing yards, and the Packers rank fourth in pass rate over expectation. I expect them to retain a substantial passing workload in Detroit, with Kraft reaching five catches against the league’s most permissive tight-end defense.
Sam LaPorta, DET (vs. GB)
Across the sideline, Sam LaPorta also gets a FLEX start for me over a great many borderline WR2s after a splendid two-game run into the bye. He caught eight passes for 84 yards against the Panthers, followed by five for 88 against the Cardinals. Across those games, he averaged 15.1 PPR points before counting either touchdown. Softish defenses, admittedly, but, hey—the Cards just held the Rams to 16 points!
Jared Goff has targeted LaPorta 37 times this season, which shakes out to a delicious 7.4 looks per outing. LaPorta has reeled in 27 of those passes for 316 yards, converting 73% of his targets. He has run routes on 84% of Detroit’s passing plays and caught at least five passes in four games. He’s out there all the time, and he’s simply everywhere.
Green Bay has defended tight ends well this year, conceding just 6.0 adjusted yards per target to the position, fourth-fewest in the league. I’m projecting five catches for 50 to 60 yards, just a tick below LaPorta’s consecutive 80-yard performances. Detroit has scored at least 31 points in four of five games, however, and LaPorta has scored three touchdowns. It’s the matchup of the week, too, in terms of expected fantasy points. Let him rip. Which is not the advice I’d give LaPorta before he goes podcasts. But, hey. Hope he gets paid!
Malik Washington, MIA (at Jets)
Malik Washington has quietly reached double-digit PPR points in three straight games, and that’s all without scoring a touchdown. He’s caught at least five passes in each of those outings, and drawn a target on more than 27% of his routes. Against Cincinnati before the bye, he caught six of eight targets for 43 yards; that was on a 79% route share, and a game during which he ripped off an 18-yard run.
Washington has a substantial body of work drawing targets, most importantly, against the coverage structure New York frequently presents. The Jets use two-high looks on 55.9% of plays; against those looks this season, Washington has drawn targets on 30% of his routes and gained 2.10 YPRR.
Malik Willis still stinks against pressure, to the tune of a 61.5 passer rating against blitzes. New York ranks fourth in blitz rate at 31.5%, and fellow Miami receiver Caleb Douglas’ possible return can spread the targets further. I’m projecting five catches and starting Washington at FLEX in hopes he shake-n’-bakes in a touchdown.
DK Metcalf, PIT (vs. Saints [Paris])
Germie Bernard this, Germie Bernard that. Everyone’s drooling over the incredibly impressive Alabama rookie, but did everyone miss the other side of the same coin? (Just kidding; Bernard was in this very spot on this list last week!)
Aaron Rodgers finally put DK Metcalf to work against Tampa Bay, feeding him 15 targets, which Metcalf converted into 11 catches for 93 yards. He scored 20.3 PPR points (without a touchdown!) and ran 83% of the routes. Bernard drew another 12 targets, so Metcalf earned that demand alongside an increasingly important and Rodgers-favored teammate.
The Saints usee single-high coverages on 64.2% of plays. Against those looks over the last two games, as Pittsburgh’s receiving personnel changed, Metcalf commanded 31.7% of the targets. The Saints have also allowed 9.8 yards per target to opposing No. 1 receivers. Feels a little like Bernard’s role as a bit of an extension of the run game could open up deep looks for Metcalf.
Metcalf still needs to get open against Cover 3 specifically: New Orleans uses it on 54.6% of plays, and he has tallied just 0.91 YPRR across 74 routes against it this season. Still, he gets my FLEX start in Paris over Bernard. I’m projecting roughly eight targets from Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who averages 38.8 attempts per game and has thrown multiple touchdowns in four straight outings.
Ryan Flournoy, DAL (at Eagles)
Cowboys WR3 Ryan Flournoy caught seven passes for 40 yards against Green Bay on Sunday night, and that was with fellow wideouts CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens both playing a full helping of snaps. Before Flournoy’s late touchdown, he already had 11 PPR points. He drew nine targets, played 87% of offensive snaps, and ran 91% of the routes at a short 5.8-yard aDOT. I’m eager to roll him out as a FLEX on Monday night.
Flournoy spent more than half his snaps against the Pack in the slot, and, in Philadelphia, the inside matchup is the more accommodating one, secondary-wise. In general, Dallas has played him on at least 66% of snaps in every game this season, which is notable in a league shifting away from three-wide-receiver sets. In six games last year in which he logged a snap share above 50%, he averaged 2.35 YPRR and drew targets on 25% of his routes.
Dak Prescott threw 54 passes against Green Bay, so I’m projecting six or seven targets and five catches for Flournoy this week. Dallas has changed its tight-end rotation, with Jake Ferguson running a route on only 52% of dropbacks last week. Flournoy’s short receiving work gives Prescott an established outlet as Ferguson’s participation continues to wither.
