Patriots vs. Bears NFL Player Prop Bets and Picks for Thursday Night Football

The NFL Week 7 slate kicks off with a primetime matchup between the New England Patriots and the Chicago Bears on Thursday Night Football.

Both teams enter Week 7 with 4-2 records, although they have taken different paths to reach this point.  Caleb Williams and Drake Maye will square off in a quarterback battle between two franchise cornerstones who were selected with the first and third overall picks in the 2024 NFL Draft, respectively. This will mark just the second time they have faced off at the NFL level, with neither having the start to the season that they have desired.

Looking at the odds, the Bears enter as three-point home favorites with -155 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Patriots are +130 to pull off the upset, with the game total set at 50.5 points.

There are plenty of ways to get involved beyond betting on one side. For now, let’s look at my top three player props for the Week 7 Thursday Night Football matchup.

Patriots at Bears NFL Player Prop Bets for Thursday Night Football

D’Andre Swift Over 61.5 Rushing Yards (-112)

Kyle Monangai has been ruled out for the Thursday Night matchup due to injuries to his thumb and toe that he is battling. This puts even more pressure on D’Andre Swift to lead the Bears’ rushing attack. Swift headlines the rushing attack regardless, having recorded 94 rush attempts for 398 yards already this season, along with six rushing scores this year. The Georgia product has also added 140 yards through the air.

Swift has been limited to just 87 rushing yards across the past two weeks, although he has found the end zone three times during that stretch. He has recorded as many as 124 rushing yards in a game this season and has tallied at least 15 carries in five of six games. With Monangai sidelined, Swift could see an even greater share of the workload.

This is a strong Patriots defense that ranks fifth in opponents’ points per game and sixth in total yards allowed. But they have not exactly been lockdown when it comes to stopping the running game. New England ranks 12th in opponents’ rushing yards allowed and 12th in net yards per rush attempt. Over New England’s past four games, Braelon Allen rushed for 78 yards, James Cook III for 75 and Bhayshul Tuten for 73.

Chicago has remained committed to the run this season, leading the NFL in rushing attempts and total rushing yards. Expect this to remain the case in this matchup, even with Williams looking sharp under center after returning from injury. With Swift expected to see a bump in opportunities due to the injury to Monangai, and New England seeming exploitable through the ground, expect a favorable outlook for Swift to record over 61.5 yards on the ground in the Thursday Night matchup.

Drake Maye Over 29.5 Rushing Yards (-112)

Another player I expect to play a major role in the rushing attack during this matchup is Drake Maye. It was an ugly start to the season for the Patriots’ start, but he has found his footing in recent weeks and looked more like the two-time Pro Bowler he has shown to be. Through the opening six games, Maye has completed 63.9% of his pass attempts for 1,463 passing yards, 11 touchdowns, and seven interceptions. While the passing production and turnover issues have come and gone through the opening few weeks, it has been the legs of the North Carolina product that have remained more consistent.

Maye has recorded at least four rush attempts in all six games this season. He is averaging 30.8 rushing yards per game, and has tallied as many as 54 yards on the ground in a matchup. Chicago has a strong overall defense on the surface level, ranking sixth in points allowed and seventh in total yards conceded, but their underlying metrics are more concerning. Chicago ranks 28th in net yards per pass attempt and 24th in net yards per rush attempt on the season. It has largely been the Bears’ ability to maintain possession of the football and score at a high rate that has propped up the defense to look more impressive than is the case in actuality.

Chicago has not been tested by a true dual-threat quarterback this year. Jalen Hurts has been the closest, recording 25 rushing yards and a touchdown on his four carries, but even his work rate with his legs has been significantly scaled back this season. No other quarterback has tallied more than three rush attempts against the Bears. Maye is averaging 5.4 yards per carry this season and does a nice job being opportunistic in taking off for chunk gains when a running lane emerges during the flow of play. With Maye having notched at least four rush attempts in each game and averaging 5.6 attempts per contest overall, expect him to stretch this Bears’ defense in a way that has not been the case yet this year. Count on the Patriots’ start to continue using his legs as an escape in the flow of attack and record over 29.5 rushing yards in this matchup.

DeMario Douglas to Record 60+ Receiving Yards (+227)

There was plenty of talk coming into the season about the upgrades to the Patriots’ wide receiver room. A.J. Brown was the headline addition, but failed to pull in seven of his 10 targets last week against the Jets and also muffed an onside kick during the matchup after returning from an ankle injury. Romeo Doubs also joined the wide receiver room this offseason, but has been placed on injured reserve following the right shoulder injury he suffered last week. Mack Hollins has also been placed on IR due to a calf injury he sustained.

This leaves DeMario Douglas positioned to maintain an important role in New England’s passing attack. Through the opening six games, he has pulled in 20 of his 30 targets for 233 yards and three touchdowns. As the depth around him has decreased, Douglas has seen his receiving output grow. He is coming off a season-high 86 receiving yards last week along with his seven receptions and eight targets being the most he has seen this season. The 25-year-old has also recorded 65 receiving yards in Week 5 and has seen at least five targets in four of six games.

Expect Chicago’s defensive shortcomings to continue becoming more evident, as they enter this matchup ranked 14th in total passing yards allowed, 17th in passing touchdowns conceded, and 28th in net yards per pass attempt. Douglas has spent his entire four-year career in New England and has developed familiarity with the Patriots’ offensive system. Expect this level of chemistry with Maye to matter, especially with so many other pass-catching options being taken off the table. 

The standard receiving yard prop is set at 38.5 receiving yards on DraftKings Sportsbook for Douglas. But I am pushing the total to 60+ yards, and backing the Liberty product to eclipse this for the third straight week. The 13 targets he has seen over the past two weeks are a notable uptick, and expect this to continue in this Thursday Night Football matchup.