Jaylen Warren, for one, ought to enjoy his trip to Paris. Indianapolis blitzed Aaron Rodgers off a shot at DK Metcalf two weeks ago; Warren caught the outlet and raced 80 yards for a touchdown, with Metcalf hustling ahead to block. Later, he cranked off a 50-yard scoring run from a three-receiver formation. Mike McCarthy has been stressing those catches and blocks, and his players—most recently and materially, rookie Germie Bernard—have given him something wonderfully destructive to defenses in return. Pittsburgh led the NFL in yards after the catch entering Week 6, and I imagine they’ll feature the short game against the home-team Saints in the NFL’s first Paris game Sunday morning. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for this week’s NFL game between the New Orleans Saints and the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Saints vs. Steelers prediction, preview
New Orleans, after all, keeps inviting it. Defensive coordinator Brandon Staley called for cleaner run fits after Atlanta torched the Saints for 205 yards in Week 4; Aaron Jones ran all over them for 113 the following week. The Saints haven’t been any cleaner against the run, and they allow running backs a league-high 116.8 rushing yards per game and 2.51 adjusted yards before contact per attempt. Warren is a Tasmanian devil with the ball in his hand. Rico Dowdle is back, and will get his touches, and his seven carries for 40 yards against Tampa showed why McCarthy insists on using both backs. They’re productive. The Saints are getting potential defensive reinforcements: Kaden Elliss and Nathan Shepherd were back on Wednesday’s practice field.
Pittsburgh got a little lucky on Sunday with how catacylsmically the Bucs collapsed; Rodgers needed 49 throws for 253 yards Sunday, and the Bucs couldn’t convert a 1st-and-goal series after a huge interception against Rodgers into more than a field goal. A Staley’s league-high 54.6% Cover 3, however, Germie Bernard offers Rodgers a newly-minted underneath answer: he’s got 2.29 YPRR across 42 routes against that coverage. Bernard and Metcalf each caught 11 passes last week with Michael Pittman and Roman Wilson on injured reserve. Rodgers marched Pittsburgh 70 yards in 12 plays for the winning touchdown. Their offense can move.
But the Steelers convert only 32.9% of third downs and score touchdowns on 53.3% of red-zone visits this season. New Orleans opponents convert 44.6% of third downs on this horrible defense, though. Staley sends extra rushers on 32.3% of dropbacks, but his unit pressures quarterbacks on only 29% overall. McCarthy has already shortened Rodgers’ time-to-throw over the past two weeks. That quick passing will keep the ball moving before the rush arrives, while Warren and Dowdle share the carries to keep the defense on their toes.
Kellen Moore finally got New Orleans running again: 175 ground yards against the Giants, including 32 from Tyler Shough. Moore also countered a blitz perfectly with Alvin Kamara’s 31-yard screen touchdown. Pittsburgh’s defensive coordinator, Patrick Graham, has emphasized firm edges and funneling runners toward Cameron Heyward and Keeanu Benton. Jonathan Taylor and Bucky Irving gained just 45 and 46 rushing yards against them in the past two games. Kendre Miller, averaging 3.12 YPC this season, should find those running lanes similarly stuffed.
Steelers vs. Saints pick, best bet
Chris Olave can punish the Steelers zones: he averages 3.16 YPRR across 99 routes against Cover 3 and Cover 4, which account for 61.5% of Pittsburgh’s coverage. Pittsburgh ranks 23rd in pressure rate, and I expect Shough to feed Olave and Kamara when the runs stall. Replacement left tackle Asim Richards has allowed 11 pressures across three games, though, and right guard Cesar Ruiz missed Wednesday’s practice. Shough has averaged a measly 3.8 yards per attempt under pressure over the past month. Four Giants turnovers helped New Orleans score 34; Shough still threw for just 144 yards, and looks like he’s working through a potential plateau after his early-season ascendance.
Shough’s 10 red-zone touchdown passes without an interception make every Saints trip inside the 20 dangerous. I expect him to finish some drives here, too. Pittsburgh should make those trips scarce by squeezing Miller’s running lanes and leaving Shough to convert third downs behind that patched line. Opponents have converted just 32.5% against the Steelers, who have allowed only ten red-zone visits through six games.
New Orleans has allowed a league-high 26. Their opponents have scored touchdowns on 30% of possessions, against Pittsburgh’s 14.5%. Warren should give Rodgers shorter third downs, with Bernard underneath to extend drives. McCarthy will still need Boswell when possessions stall, but I expect Rodgers to build a touchdown lead from those extra visits to scoring range. At -102, I’ll lay the 3.5.
Best bet: Steelers -3.5 (-102).
Projected score: Steelers 27, Saints 20.
