In fantasy football, running back is arguably the most important position on the field. At the very least, good RBs are the hardest commodity to come by in most formats, and finding ones with any value in DFS is a chore.
With all that in mind, I’m here help.
Let’s break down some touch and target projections for each backfield in tonight’s Thursday Night Football tilt between the New England Patriots and the Chicago Bears.
RB Touch Projections for Patriots vs. Bears
New England Patriots
Generated October 22, 2026 at 09:31 AM ET
| Rank | Player | Team | Opp | Proj Touches | Proj Car | Proj Tgt | DK Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rhamondre Stevenson | NE | CHI | 16.6 | 13.8 | 2.8 | $7,800 |
| 2 | TreVeyon Henderson | NE | CHI | 7.9 | 6.9 | 1.0 | $5,800 |
| 3 | Corey Kiner | NE | CHI | 3.6 | 3.2 | 0.3 | $1,400 |
– Proj Car / Proj Tgt — Projected rushing attempts and receiving targets. Game script adjusts the split: favored teams get up to 12% more carries, underdogs get up to 15% more targets.
– Projections — Built from blended per-game rates (25% 2025 / 75% 2026), adjusted for matchup, game spread, DK team totals, and depth chart role. Out/IR players excluded with touches redistributed. Q/D volume reductions apply Fri-Sun only (after official designations).
The story of this game will be the usage of Corey Kiner as the Patriots’ third (?) running back. The Cincinnati product has had back-to-back 50-yard rushing performances coming into Week 7, and while you could maybe write-off Week 5’s showing as garbage time stats in a blowout win, Kiner looked to be New England’s most effective runner in a much closer script versus the Jets this past Sunday. He’d finish with 57 rushing yards, as he garnered a carry on 11 of his 12 offensive snaps.
To this point, Kiner’s presence hasn’t really impacted Rhamondre Stevenson all that much, as the veteran has pretty consistently been churning out 15-touch games with a snap share hovering around 60%. However, TreVeyon Henderson has been a different story. The sophomore missed Week 1 due to injury, but looked to be a key piece of this Patriots offense in his return in Week 2, registering 16 rushing attempts and 76 yards. Since then, Henderson’s snap rate has clocked in at 36.5%, 36.8%, 16.0% and 23.5%, respectively, with the figures under 25% aligning with Kiner’s surge in notoriety. Henderson’s averaged just 29.5 rushing yards in this four-contest span.
I don’t think Kiner is suddenly going to make Josh McDaniels forget about one of his most explosive offensive weapons, but it’s clear, at least for the time being, that the Patriots backfield committee is now a three-man situation. As such, I believe Kiner will see 6-8 touches on Thursday Night Football, doubling this projection.
Chicago Bears
Generated October 22, 2026 at 09:31 AM ET
| Rank | Player | Team | Opp | Proj Touches | Proj Car | Proj Tgt | DK Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | D’Andre Swift | CHI | NE | 23.0 | 19.0 | 4.1 | $9,800 |
| 2 | Roschon Johnson | CHI | NE | 5.0 | 3.5 | 1.5 | $4,400 |
– Proj Car / Proj Tgt — Projected rushing attempts and receiving targets. Game script adjusts the split: favored teams get up to 12% more carries, underdogs get up to 15% more targets.
– Projections — Built from blended per-game rates (25% 2025 / 75% 2026), adjusted for matchup, game spread, DK team totals, and depth chart role. Out/IR players excluded with touches redistributed. Q/D volume reductions apply Fri-Sun only (after official designations).
It’s been a weird few weeks for D’Andre Swift. In the beginning of October against the Jets, Swift saw a season-low 35.5% share share, the result of being benched following a lost second-half fumble. Kyle Monangai turned his expanded opportunity into 30 carries for 146 yards; however, the extra workload also ended up putting the former seventh-round pick on the injury report with turf toe. Monangai hasn’t played since, and he’s already been ruled out for this evening’s contest.
As you would expect, Swift’s performed well in the absence of Monangai, with 17.3 FPTS in Week 5 and 23.0 FPTS in Week 6. At the same time, that success is mostly on the back of three rushing touchdowns. Swift’s only actually averaged 12.5 rushing attempts and 43.5 rushing yards in this two-game span. Some of that underwhelming volume can be chalked up to back-to-back lopsided scripts, but remember, Swift’s dealt with his own lingering ailments this season. He’s not going to suddenly be handling a 90% snap rate. Roschon Johnson won’t be as involved as Monangai, but he’ll see a handful of touches — especially on a short week.
