Chicago Bears vs. New England Patriots prediction, pick for NFL Week 7 on Thursday 10/22/26

Drake Maye and Caleb Williams give Thursday night the young-, elite-, next-generation-of-rushmore quarterback electricity which made Mahomes–Jackson and Mahomes–Allen compulsory viewing most of the last decade. Their Soldier Field meeting belongs among the most anticipated such primetime matchups of the past five years, full-stop. Both teams are 4–2, and refreshingly so: Maye’s back in MVP form, having chucked ten touchdowns against one interception during New England’s three straight wins. Caleb Williams returned from his hamstring injury last week and completed 30 of 36 passes for 305 yards. It’s all humming, and it should be a fun one. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for this week’s NFL game between the Chicago Bears and the New England Patriots.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

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Bears vs. Patriots prediction, preview

Last week, Hunter Henry hurt the Jets’ blitzes with checkdowns and chip-release catches of 16, ten and 15 yards . Rhamondre Stevenson passed off a looping rusher, while replacement guard Matt Pryor moved defenders on late duo runs for reserve back Corey Kiner, who gained 57 yards on 11 carries. These feel like formative, predictive plays for this week. New England can repeat that work, and will need to do so with guards Ben Brown and Alijah Vera-Tucker unlikely to play. Interior stunts still led to pressure against Maye, though, and the Jets blitzed only 26.5% of Maye’s dropbacks.

Chicago defensive coordinator Dennis Allen found his missing rush in the secondary. With edge rushers Montez Sweat and Dayo Odeyingbo absent, he blitzed Atlanta on 56.4% of dropbacks and unleashed nickel back Kyler Gordon for three sacks. Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels should return to Henry’s chip-and-release work and throw early: Chicago ranks 29th in early-down EPA/play but permits third-down conversions on just 25.8% of attempts. McDaniels can retain extra protection off play action, too; Chicago ranks 28th in EPA/dropback against those under-center throws. It’s a bit terrifying wondering what Kyler Gordon could do with an increased snap count.

A.J. Brown owes Maye some big-time catches in this one, and there’d be no better time to finally get his career as a New England Patriot off the ground than tonight. Four drops spoiled his return, including an touchdown chance, but Maye kept looking to him for a total of 10 targets. Chicago has surrendered a league-worst 11.72 yards per target to outside receivers. Brown played 94% of the routes; Maye can find him downfield while DeMario Douglas works underneath with Romeo Doubs on injured reserve. Forecast light winds should preserve those deeper chances, and Maye’s deep ball looks to be the deadliest in the NFL (again) right now. I could easily see a Kyle Williams game, here.

Ben Johnson used the game against the Falcons to restore both Williams’ rhythm after his injury, and also, perhaps, the confidence of Colston Loveland, who caught three passes on the opening touchdown drive at Atlanta. Luther Burden III caught all eight targets for 95 yards despite running only 46% of the routes. They’ll play more snaps against the Patriots, of this I’m certain. Johnson’s heavy formations and Williams’ short throws can stretch New England’s linebackers between tackling D’Andre Swift—who’s playing the best football of his career—and covering Loveland. The Jets also gained 18 yards on a receiver screen against a Patriots blitz; Burden gives Johnson a devastatingly shifty asset for those same sorts of calls.

Patriots vs. Bears pick, best bet

New England did figure out how to smother the Jets on Sunday eventually, though, and they may do so here with the Bears. One play which stood out to me when thinking about this week: late in the Jets game, Zak Kuhr sent nickel back Marcus Jones through a pressure that overloaded the running back’s protection, producing a key third-down stop. That could be key against Williams, who completed all 24 clean-pocket passes last week. Swift’s 44 yards on 16 carries hide how effective he’s been at moving the chains on the ground.

Still, I like New England, here—Maye gets the more forgiving defense, and his offense has started cashing those opportunities in a big way. The Patriots have scored on 48.5% of their possessions over the past three games, fifth-best in the NFL, and that’s even despite the catches Brown left on the field Sunday. Chicago, on the other hand, has allowed 6.0 yards per play and touchdowns on 66.7% of opponents’ red-zone visits. McDaniels has good reason to attack aggressively and creatively early, and Maye has been zipping it beautifully enough to punish even the slightest openings.

Chicago’s long possessions could make every New England punt expensive, but the Patriots have allowed just 1.74 points per drive, fourth-fewest, and touchdowns on only half their opponents’ red-zone trips. Williams should need to earn this one more than his cupcake return against the Falcons, and New England has a legitimate record of making those sorts of drives end in kicks. I expect Maye, on the other hand, to finish enough drives through Brown, Henry, and Stevenson to win this outright.

Best bet: Patriots ML (+130).

Projected score: Patriots 27, Bears 24.

Best Bet: Patriots (+130) at Bears