Bears vs. Patriots NFL DFS Value Picks for Thursday Night Football

The Bears are hosting the Patriots for Week 7’s edition of Thursday Night Football. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Chicago is favored by three points and this game carries a total of 50.5 points.

DraftKings is offering some huge Showdown contests for this matchup. Below, I have featured two of my favorite NFL DFS value plays to consider for this Showdown slate.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL Showdown $1.25M Thursday Night Showdown [$300K to 1st] (NE @ CHI)

Bears vs. Patriots NFL DFS Value Picks for Thursday Night Football

WR Kyle Williams, New England Patriots ($2,700 CPT, $1,800 FLEX)

With Romeo Doubs (shoulder) on IR, Williams is an appealing punt for this Showdown slate. Doubs exited after only playing two snaps last Sunday vs. the Jets and, in his absence, Williams only caught one pass for 12 yards, resulting in 2.2 FPTS. That being said, this was a tough matchup, with New York giving up the fifth-fewest yards per opponent pass attempt this season (5.8). More importantly, Williams ran a route on a season-high 57.1% of his team’s drop backs, which ranked fourth for the Patriots.

Both Williams and Doubs have mainly only run routes out wide this season, so Williams being the primary replacement for Doubs in this offense makes sense. Williams should run a route on more than half his team’s drop backs again tonight, and this is a much easier matchup than facing the Jets, as the Bears are allowing the second-most yards per pass (7.8).

Williams is seeing a target on 13% of his routes and he is leading New England with a huge 18.6 aDOT this season, which ranks 10th in the NFL among the players who have run 20+ routes. Williams is a strong deep threat and his big-play ability was on full display in the Patriots’ Week 5 win over the Raiders.

In this victory, Williams caught all three of his targets for 91 yards, including a 32-yard touchdown catch and a 49-yard reception.

The veteran finished with 18.1 FPTS despite running a route on just 34.2% of New England’s drop backs. Williams is going to see more work tonight and him making a few big plays is definitely possible in this matchup, as the Bears are allowing passing plays of 20+ yards at the second-highest rate in the league (11.9%).

RB Roschon Johnson, Chicago Bears ($6,600 CPT, $4,400 FLEX)

With Kyle Monangai (toe) out for the second game in a row last Sunday vs. the Falcons, Johnson slid right into Monangai’s role as the No. 2 running back for the Bears behind D’Andre Swift — and Johnson was productive. The back rushed for 51 yards and a touchdown on 13 carries and he caught both of his targets for 34 yards. Johnson scored 15.5 FPTS and finished as the No. 9 scoring running back for Week 6.

Swift only out carried Johnson 16-13 overall and 5-4 in the red zone. Johnson saw 39.4% of the running back carries for Chicago and he logged 40.3% of the snaps. In the passing game, Johnson ran a route on 24.4% of his team’s drop backs, and he commanded a target on 20% of those routes.

Given the Bears got an eight-point road win in Atlanta with Johnson playing a significant role, he should receive a similar workload tonight vs. the Patriots with Monangai remaining sidelined.

Opponents have the seventh-highest rushing success rate in the NFL when facing New England and Chicago is a three-point home favorite for this matchup on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Bears rank third in rush rate this season (54.5%) and they should rely on their rushing attack once again. Johnson should see 10-15 touches, giving him solid upside. Johnson is scoring 0.42 FPTS per snap this season, which ranks 17th among running backs.