Patriots vs. Bears NFL DFS Showdown Picks and Strategy for Thursday Night Football

Before the season started, Amazon executives must have been jumping up and down when the NFL announced this Week 7 matchup. They pitted last season’s Super Bowl runner-ups against a team intent on shattering single-season offensive records.

Then the games were actually played.

New England scored 10 points in the Super Bowl rematch loss to the Seattle Seahawks, then laid a six-point egg in Jacksonville two weeks later. Drake Maye threw six interceptions with only one touchdown over the first three games. Massachusetts residents channeled their inner Paul Revere and galloped across the state yelling, “Maye Day! Maye Day! Maye Day!”

Since then, Maye has thrown 10 touchdowns with only one interception in three games. Unsurprisingly, the Patriots have rattled off three straight wins and now sit at 4-2, primarily on the shoulders of their third-year franchise quarterback.

The bullish sign for the Patriots’ passing attack is that A.J. Brown has played only two games due to injury. Once he gets comfortable, the passing game could really take off. As it stands, DeMario Douglas leads the team with 30 targets, converting them into 20 receptions for 233 yards. Romeo Doubs and Douglas are tied for the team lead with three touchdowns.

The rushing attack has been good, not great. The 784 yards are the sixth-most, but the 4.2 yards per carry are middle-of-the-pack, and the team has punched in only four rushing touchdowns.

The offensive line is a problem. Ranked 27th per PFF, both starting guards will likely miss this one.

Defensively, the Patriots blitz at the ninth-highest rate but are 16th in pressure rate. They’re tied for the seventh-most sacks (14) and sit eighth in missed tackles (23). New England’s pass defense hasn’t been as good as expected. The team has allowed the NFL’s ninth-highest completion percentage (66.2%) but is tied for the eighth-fewest opponent pass TDs (7).

On the ground, the unit has allowed 3.9 yards per carry, 91.8 yards per game, and five rushing touchdowns.

Like New England, Chicago is also 4-2, but the journey has been wildly different. While the Patriots looked terrible early on, the Bears looked like a juggernaut in the opener, putting up 552 yards of offense while scoring 59 points. But things simmered after Caleb Williams went down in Week 2. Still, the Bears went 2-1 with Tyson Bagent and Case Keenum under center. Williams returned to action last week, going 30-for-36 for 305 yards and a touchdown.

Luther Burden leads the team with 43 targets, converting them into 31 receptions for 361 yards and a touchdown. Rome Odunze is second with 20 receptions on 34 targets for 312 yards. Kalif Raymond, Jahdae Walker and tight ends Colston Loveland and Cole Kmet all have only one touchdown, but that’s likely to change with Williams back under center.

The run game has been prolific. Chicago leads the NFL with 216 carries and 964 rushing yards, ranking second with 13 rushing touchdowns. Chicago has five 20+ yard runs and one over 40. That said, the Bears are tied for the league lead with six rushing fumbles.

Chicago’s offensive line ranks sixth per PFF.

Defensively, Chicago is seventh in blitz rate and fourth in pressure rate, tied for the fourth-most sacks (17). The Bears have allowed the eighth-highest opponent passer rating (99.9), the second-most yards per attempt (8.4), and the most yards per completion (13.4).  

On the ground, the unit has allowed 4.5 yards per carry, 90.5 rushing yards per game, and five rushing touchdowns.

Chicago enters as a 3-point home favorite with -155 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. New England is a +130 underdog, with the game total set at O/U 50.5 points.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.25M Thursday Night Showdown [$300K to 1st] (NE @ CHI)

Captain’s Picks

A.J. Brown ($13,500 CP): In his return to action last week, Brown got 10 targets — though he caught only three for 27 yards. Rust, recovery from injury, and a new team also factor in. While concerning, I think there will be opportunities for splash plays against the Bears, especially with Doubs landing on IR. Maye has escapability and throws a nice deep ball. Brown heads into Week 7 with potentially low ownership and superstar upside.

UTIL Plays

Drake Maye ($10,600): Well, if I like Brown to have a big game, then he can’t do that without Maye. It’s not just that, though; Maye has been on fire the last three weeks and looks like last season’s MVP runner-up. He’s thrown at least three touchdowns in three straight games and has some rushing equity, with 185 rushing yards and a touchdown this season.  

Roschon Johnson ($4,400): Johnson has played 40% of the snaps the last two weeks. Last week, he had 13 carries for 51 yards and a touchdown, plus two catches for 34 yards. He also received four red-zone opportunities. He’s cheap, getting money touches, and provides direct leverage off D’Andre Swift.

Corey Kiner ($1,400): Kiner has played only 20% of snaps over the last two weeks and totaled 52 and 57 yards, but he’s gotten eight red-zone opportunities during that span. He had 11 carries last week and closed out the game for New England. Mike Vrabel trusted him and appreciated his no-nonsense running style. I may be falling for the banana-in-the-tailpipe here, but Kiner is cheap and could get rewarded once again.

Fades

Rhamondre Stevenson ($7,800): Would it surprise me if Stevenson gets 20 carries and rushes for 122 yards and two touchdowns? It wouldn’t, and that’s likely the outcome since I’m writing him up as a fade. That said, Stevenson hasn’t been good, while Kiner showed some promise last week. I’m assuming Vrabel will give Kiner more snaps, which would hurt Stevenson.

Outcome

Both offenses are humming right now, and I like this to be a back-and-forth affair.

Final Score: Bears 30, Patriots 27