The offseason trade that sent A.J. Brown to the New England Patriots got the hype train rolling for the star wide receiver’s fantasy outlook, but the start of his tenure with his new team has been tumultuous. He suffered an injury in his season debut and missed the next three games, finally returning to the field in Week 6. That performance wasn’t much to write home about, but it’s hardly an indicator of what’s to come – here’s why Brown is one of the best buy-low targets in fantasy heading into Week 7.
Should you buy low on A.J. Brown in fantasy?
We know just what A.J. Brown is capable of at this point of his career. He showed signs of stardom early on during his years with the Tennessee Titans, but it was his time as a Philadelphia Eagle that saw him take the leap to perennial stud status. He finished with 1,000+ receiving yards and 7+ touchdowns in all four seasons with the team, averaging at least 14.7 FPPG in each with multiple campaigns as a top-12 wideout. Last season was quieter as he dealt with some injury woes, but Brown has largely been a WR1 for the better part of the 2020s, both in the real NFL and in fantasy.
That’s part of why the end to his time in Philly was so surprising. The Eagles traded him away following a very public fracture in his relationship with the team, shipping him to New England and pairing him with Drake Maye. On paper, the pairing looked like a match made in heaven. Maye was coming off a finish as the MVP runner-up with a cannon for an arm that unleashed plenty of deep balls upon opposing defenses. With Brown’s ability to stretch the field while also excelling at creating after the catch on shorter throws, he immediately stepped in as an ideal running mate for the young quarterback.
The early returns for fantasy managers with Brown haven’t come anywhere close to expectations, though. In his debut, he posted only 5.9 PPR points before an ankle sprain ended his day. He caught three of his four targets for 26 yards but had a low aDOT of just 4.75 against a stellar Seahawks defense. That injury wound up landing him on IR, where he spent the next four weeks. Once healthy, Brown returned in Week 6 to just 5.7 PPR points despite seeing 10 targets, three of which he caught for 27 yards in a nearly identical performance to the opener.
Managers who drafted him in the early rounds are probably quite frustrated at this point with what they’ve gotten. Missing four weeks of action was a real bummer that probably has quite a few teams with him on the roster working to dig their way out of losing records, and even when he’s been on the field, the results haven’t been great. However, that has opened an ideal buy window on a borderline elite talent.
Yes, we’ve seen some growing pains so far. Yes, Brown struggled with drops in his return. Yes, he’s been a frustrating player in the past with some disappearing acts at times mixed in with great production. But despite it all, he’s in an ideal situation and remains ever bit the player he was in Philadelphia.
The role he saw in Week 6 was fantastic, frankly. Brown was featured throughout the day in terms of target volume, drawing a 28.1% share that rivals other fantasy WR1s and also seeing his aDOT increase to a more typical 12.00 yards. His xFP clocked in at 22.0, so had he not dropped a few passes, we’d easily be singing a different tune at the moment. After six weeks of underwhelming the teams that drafted him, there’s no better time than now to capitalize and buy low on the wideout.
Look at some of the other underlying numbers, too. Brown ranks in the 86th percentile of wideouts in separation score and in the 94th percentile in terms of win rate. His TPRR also comes in at 0.28, good for the 89th percentile, and his first-read target share of 28.6% means getting the ball to him is a priority. He still has it, frankly.
Over the next four weeks, Brown and the Patriots take on the Bears, Dolphins, Packers and Lions. Three of those four teams rank in the NFL’s top half when it comes to fantasy points allowed to WRs, and beyond that, the Packers and Lions are both teams that push the tempo and rely on their passing attacks to keep games competitive. The schedule looks good for New England, and with Romeo Doubs headed to IR, Brown has even less competition for targets. He could be peppered by Maye.
We’ve seen Brown perform like a true elite wideout in the past and he’s positioned to retake his spot as a WR1 moving forward, assuming he can get those drops taken care of. With the price tag likely pretty low and the teams that drafted him probably around .500 or worse, capitalize now with this move that could pay dividends.
