The featured prelim bout at tonight’s UFC Fight Night in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada is a three-round heavyweight bout between Tanner Boser and Jhonata Diniz. Tonight’s prelims start at 5:00 p.m. ET on Paramount+. This card is being headlined by a top-15 Welterweight fight as No. 10 Joaquin Buckley takes on No. 13 Mike Malott.
Check out my best bet for Tanner Boser vs. Jhonata Diniz at tonight’s UFC Fight Night below.
Exact Method of Victory: KO/TKO/DQ (-150)
Although both fighters are 35, Boser has much more experience: this is his 35th MMA fight and Diniz’s 12th. This is Boser’s second run in the UFC, as he first appeared in the promotion from October 2019 to August 2023. Boser went 5-5 during his first UFC stint. After leaving the promotion, Boser picked up a third-round knockout win over Vinicius Moreira at UAE Warriors 60 in June 2025 before returning to the UFC in April. Boser suffered a second-round knockout loss to Gokhan Saricam in his previous bout.
Diniz has a 9-2 record with seven knockouts but is 1-2 in his last three contests. He had a tremendous start to his MMA career, starting 8-0 with seven knockouts. But since has struggled in the UFC as the competition has gotten tougher. Diniz has a four-inch reach advantage (79″ vs. 75″) while being two inches taller (6’4″ vs. 6’2″).
In this fight, Diniz is the favorite at -205, with Boser being a +170 underdog on DraftKings Sportsbook. The over/under is 2.5 rounds, with the under at -130 and the over at +100. Also, this bout is +125 to go the distance and -165 to end before the scheduled 15 minutes.
Both fighters do their best work on the feet, and statistically this is a close fight. Boser averages more significant strikes per minute (4.82 vs. 3.89) while Diniz is more accurate (56% vs. 53%). Since both fighters have been very inconsistent, it will be tough to back them until they show improvement. With that in mind, my favorite play is that this fight ends by knockout at -150. Nine of Diniz’s 11 fights have ended by knockout, and three of Boser’s previous four fights have involved a knockout.
