So far this season, the Seattle Seahawks’ title defense efforts have been, at best, a mixed bag. Wins over the New England Patriots and the Arizona Cardinals without starting quarterback Sam Darnold were impressive, but a loss to the Jayden Daniels-less Washington Commanders was inexcusable. Now, Seattle is 3-2, just outside the NFC playoff picture if the season ended today, and the San Francisco 49ers have the inside track at the tiebreaker.
The Seahawks should still make the playoffs — they have -200 odds to do so — but in order to make a deep run, they’ll need more from Darnold than what they’ve gotten so far this season.
Tonight, Darnold will have a chance to test himself against one of the league’s strongest defenses when Seattle travels to face the Denver Broncos on Thursday Night Football at 8:15 p.m. ET.
The Seahawks are 2.5-point favorites for tonight’s game at DraftKings Sportsbook (-142 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 40.5. Denver is +120 on the Moneyline.
Below, I’ll break down Darnold’s passing attempts prop bet for tonight’s nationally-televised showdown.
Sam Darnold Passing Attempts Prop Bet vs. Broncos
Sam Darnold U30.5 Passing Attempts (-120)
Darnold has thrown 30 or fewer passing attempts in three of his four games this season; although his stats are somewhat skewed after he threw just two passes before going down with a glute strain in Week 1, he attempted just 22 in the Week 4 win over the Los Angeles Chargers and 29 last weekend against the 49ers. He also threw 30 or fewer passes in 11 of his 17 starts last season, and Drew Lock never topped that number while filling in in Weeks 1 and 2.
While Seattle operated a more run-heavy offensive scheme last season, it has still been pretty reliant on the ground game in 2026, even with Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III off the team and Zach Charbonnet not quite ready to return from the torn ACL that ended his postseason early. This season, the Seahawks rank 23rd in passing attempts per game and 12th in rushing attempts per game, and while they’ve been more efficient through the air, Emanuel Wilson has been respectable enough not to make the ground game completely infeasible. Darnold has been closer to average than elite, so he hasn’t been efficient enough to force Brian Fleury’s hand.
For their part, the Broncos like to run the ball as well, so they could chew up clock and give Darnold fewer opportunities to throw the ball. They also have an elite secondary, allowing opponents to complete the sixth-fewest passes per game and holding them to the third-lowest completion percentage. Although throwing on Denver could be more appealing today with former Defensive Player of the Year Patrick Surtain II and safety Talanoa Hufanga both out, the Broncos still have Riley Moss, Ja’Quan McMillan, and Jahdae Barron, all of whom have been solid. Denver has been far more gettable on the ground, so Fleury should continue to prioritize the run game.
