Last season, the Denver Broncos broke the Kansas City Chiefs’ stranglehold on the AFC West, winning the division for the first time since 2015. They were arguably a Bo Nix ankle fracture away from appearing in the Super Bowl, as they only narrowly lost the AFC Championship Game despite starting Jarrett Stidham.
However, Denver has been one of the NFL’s biggest disappointments so far in 2026, as it’s just 3-2 with uncompetitive losses against the current top seeds in both conferences (the Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers). Nix hasn’t looked 100% despite reporting no side effects in his surgically repaired ankle.
Tonight, Nix will lead the Broncos into what could’ve been the Super Bowl matchup had he not suffered his injury, as Denver will host the Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks at 8:15 p.m. ET on Thursday Night Football.
The Broncos are 2.5-point underdogs for tonight’s matchup at DraftKings Sportsbook (+120 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 40.5. The Seahawks are -142 on the Moneyline.
Below, I’ve detailed my Nix-centered prop bet for those looking to get in on the action.
Best Bo Nix Prop Bet on DraftKings Sportsbook
Bo Nix U199.5 Passing Yards (-112)
Nix has been neither an aggressive nor an efficient passer this season, as he’s only crossed the 200-yard threshold in two of his five games, and he has not completed more than 60% of his passes since Week 2. In fact, despite playing in perfect Southern California conditions in Denver’s most recent win against the Los Angeles Chargers, Nix managed just 123 yards, the second-lowest total of his career. After averaging 222.1 yards per game as a rookie in 2024 and 231.2 as a second-year pro, Nix has put up just 188.4 so far in 2026.
For a team with realistic Super Bowl aspirations who brought in a bona fide WR1 to supplement him during the offseason, Nix’s play has been inexcusable. He’s completed his passes at a rate 4.1 percentage points lower than expected, the second-worst figure in the league, and he ranks fifth-to-last in aggressiveness. By Pro Football Focus’ standards, he’s been the fourth-worst among 40 qualified quarterbacks, and he hasn’t made up for it on the ground like he did in his first two seasons as a pro.
If there’s anything that could save his production, it’s the fact that the Broncos’ running game has also been extremely poor. Denver ranks 15th in passing attempts and just 24th in rushing attempts, and running backs J.K. Dobbins and RJ Harvey have both disappointed in their opportunities. However, it’s also worth noting that in his first game after taking offensive play-calling duties back from offensive coordinator Davis Webb, Broncos head coach Sean Payton called 29 runs and 27 passes, the first time this season that Denver has opted for a run-first approach. Payton has reiterated that Nix has his full trust, but it hasn’t manifested itself yet in his game plan.
He could hardly ask for a more difficult matchup tonight. This season, no team has allowed fewer passing yards than Seattle’s 754, and the Seahawks also lead the league in yards per attempt, adjusted yards per attempt, yards per completion, net yards per attempt, and adjusted net yards per attempt. Seattle has gotten pressure at the fourth-highest rate, and Nix has been the league’s worst quarterback when under duress this season, completing only 39.0% of his passes for 304 yards, one touchdown, and two picks. The Broncos’ defense could also struggle slightly to contain the Seahawks, given the absences of both cornerback Patrick Surtain II and safety Talanoa Hufanga.
