Atlanta opened the season with Cooper Rush at quarterback due to injuries, and it predictably did not go well. The Falcons scored a total of 16 points while Rush passed for 118 and 129 yards. Oh, Atlanta also turned the ball over seven times. The rushing attack did rumble for 120 and 157 yards, but that’s primarily because Bijan Robinson is the Grey Poupon.
With Michael Penix Jr. back under center, the offense exploded for 35 and 45 points, totaling over 400 yards of offense in each contest while 256 and 215 yards were racked up on the ground. Those pesky turnovers? Only one.
Now, before we go crowning the Falcons, Atlanta did play the Green Bay Packers and New Orleans Saints, both far from juggernauts on defense. That said, both of those games were on the road and the Falcons get to display their new-found vigor to the home folk in Atlanta while the Baltimore Ravens haven’t been especially stout on defense either.
Baltimore is middle-of-the-pack in both pass and rush defense. The expected points are -13.82 and -.47 respectively. Quarterbacks are completing 66.9 percent of passes, the 11th-highest mark, while the quarterback rating of 89.6 is smack dab in the middle. Only four passing touchdowns have been allowed, though, while the unit has procured two interceptions. The rush defense is allowing 3.9 yards per carry and 100 yards per game, but the six rushing touchdowns allowed are the third-most.
Baltimore is 3-1, with the lone hiccup a 17-24 loss to New Orleans at home. Shrug. New Orleans dominated the time of possession by five minutes and thirty seconds in that one.
The big headline for the Ravens in this one is the health of quarterback Lamar Jackson, who is dealing with an ankle injury. Jackson (ankle) has been ruled out, so Tyler Huntley will start.
Huntley is 28 years old and has been in the league for seven seasons, making 16 starts while completing 66.6 percent of his passes for 3,275 yards, 13 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He also has rushing equity like Jackson, rushing 169 times for 811 yards and five touchdowns. While Huntley is a downgrade from the greatness of Jackson, he is no slouch and should be able to orchestrate the offense in hostile territory.
That said, the Ravens do have the one that has been Heisman’ing Father Time for quite some time in Derrick Henry. The 32-year-old is still going strong and currently leads the NFL with 89 carries and seven touchdowns. He will likely be the focal point of the Ravens offense in this one.
That presents a strength on strength matchup, as the Falcons rush defense has been one of the best so far this season. The unit is allowing only 2.7 yards per carry and 48.3 yards per game. The 15.28 expected points are the second-most.
The pass defense has only allowed a 59 completion percentage, the sixth-lowest, but seven passing touchdowns have been allowed with only one interception. The -18.4 expected points are 18th.
Looking at the odds for Sunday Night Football, the Falcons are 3-point home favorites with -170 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Ravens are +142 underdogs, with the game total set at O/U 43.5 points.
Below are the values that could hopefully help take you to the promised land.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL Showdown $1M Sunday Night Showdown [$250K to 1st] (BAL @ ATL)
NFL DFS Value Picks for Ravens vs. Falcons Week 5
WR Chris Moore, Baltimore Ravens ($2,800)
Moore did not play last week due to injury, but he’s been practicing in a limited capacity so far this week and could return. He’s only garnered six targets on the season, but he plays over 50% of the snaps when healthy. On the season, he has three catches for 63 yards and a touchdown. Those stats are nothing to write home about, but if the Ravens do have to throw more than they want to, Moore is a cheap option that provides a good risk/reward proposition.
RB Justice Hill, Baltimore Ravens ($3,200)
Hill has played 103 snaps compared to 151 for Derrick Henry. He has six targets on the season and is out there on obvious passing situations. There is a chance that the Falcons put up points in this one, which could force the Ravens to be more aggressive on offense. In addition, Atlanta does boast one of the best run defenses so far. This is a huge test against Henry, so we shall see how real they are, but it’s within the range of outcomes that the unit does stymie Henry and the offense tilts more to the air, regardless of who is under center for Baltimore.
RB Brian Robinson Jr., Atlanta Falcons ($5,800)
Robinson scored three touchdowns last week while rushing 14 times for 62 yards with five red zone opportunities. The stars aligned for Robinson as the Falcons overwhelmed the Saints, which led to less of Bijan and more of Brian. That same scenario likely won’t be replicated, but Robinson has received nine, 11 and 10 carries in the other three games while playing around 30% of the snaps.
