Matheus Camilo takes on Jai Herbert in a three-round Lightweight contest slated to be the co-main event at tonight’s UFC Fight Night in Las Vegas, Nevada. Tonight’s Main Card begins at 8:00 p.m. ET and airs on Paramount+. Camilo is on a two-fight winning streak, while Herbert is coming off a first-round knockout win over Mandel Nallo.
Check out my best bet for Matheus Camilo vs. Jai Herbert at tonight’s UFC Fight Night below.
Matheus Camilo to Win by KO/TKO/DQ or Decision (-165)
At 25, Matheus Camilo is an impressive prospect. He started his MMA career 3-2 but has since gone 8-1 in his previous nine contests over the last four years. In May 2025, Camilo suffered a second-round submission loss to Gabe Green in his UFC debut. Camilo bounced back, beating Viacheslav Borshchev and Nazim Sadykhov in his last two bouts.
Meanwhile, Herbert has been in the UFC since 2020 and is 4-5-1 in the promotion. Since joining the UFC, Herbert has struggled to find consistency as he hasn’t won two straight fights since 2019. Herbert has the physical advantage: he is three inches taller (6’1″ vs. 5’10”) and has an eight-inch edge in standing reach (77″ vs. 69″). In this bout, Camilo is the favorite at -192, with Herbert being a +160 underdog on DraftKings Sportsbook. This fight has an over/under of 1.5 rounds, with the over at -180 and the under at +140.
Although Camilo is smaller than Herbert, if he fights at a fast pace, he should have opportunities to succeed in this bout. Herbert averages 0.97 more significant strikes per minute, but Camilo has the better striking accuracy (43% vs. 41%) and defense (66% vs. 52%) on the feet. Camilo is a supreme athlete and should use his quickness to keep Herbert guessing in this bout. Camilo’s previous four and nine of his 11 career wins have come by knockout or decision. That said, I’m taking Camilo to win by KO/TKO/DQ or decision at -165.
