Prediction, pick for Brendan Allen vs. Christian Leroy Duncan at UFC Vegas 122

Tonight’s UFC Fight Night has a highly anticipated Main Event between Brendan Allen and Christian Leroy Duncan. This is Leroy Duncan’s 11th UFC appearance but his first time headlining a card in the promotion. CLD has won five consecutive bouts since March 2025, while Allen is in the midst of a three-fight winning streak. This Main Card begins at 8:00 p.m. ET on Paramount+ and is being held at the Meta Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. 

Check out my best bet for Brendan Allen vs. Christian Leroy Duncan at tonight’s UFC Fight Night below.

Christian Leroy Duncan Moneyline (+102)

Allen last fought in June, beating Edmen Shahbazyan by unanimous decision. Before that, Allen picked up two victories over Reinier de Ridder and Marvin Vettori. After losing back-to-back fights to Nassourdine Imavov and Anthony Hernandez, a new and improved version of Allen has emerged. This year, Leroy Duncan has beaten Roman Dolidze and Jared Cannonier by unanimous decision. In the UFC, Leroy Duncan is 8-2 and is 15-2 overall with 11 finishes. He last lost in July 2024 to Gregory Rodrigues. 

On DraftKings Sportsbook, Allen is the favorite at -122, while Leroy Duncan is a +102 underdog. This fight is -170 not to go the distance and +130 to last 25 minutes. Leroy Duncan is +185 to win by knockout or submission, while Allen is +215 to score a finish. CLD has a four-inch reach advantage (79″ vs. 75″), while both fighters in this bout are 6’2″. 

Allen has the advantage on the ground, averaging 1.52 takedowns per 15 minutes with a 41 percent accuracy compared to Leroy Duncan’s 0.43 takedowns and 20 percent accuracy. On the feet, CLD has the edge, landing more significant strikes per minute (4.45 vs. 3.75) while absorbing fewer strikes per minute (2.36 vs. 3.78). 

In the past, Leroy Duncan has done well even against skilled ground opponents. Cannonier landed five takedowns and had 6:12 of control time, but Leroy Duncan still landed more significant strikes than him in each round. Even when opponents take Leroy Duncan down, they struggle to hold him there. Allen’s striking has improved over time, but Leroy Duncan should still have a big edge there. When CLD throws a high volume of punches while pressuring his opponent, they often struggle to keep up.