Detroit has opened the season with its offense in predictable shape, scoring 31 points in every contest while ranking top 10 in passing attempts, yards, touchdowns and interceptions. The rushing attack hasn’t been so bad either, ranking top 10 in rushing yards, touchdowns and yards per carry.
Jared Goff has completed 70.6 percent of his passes for 802 yards and eight touchdowns. Jahmyr Gibbs has rushed 65 times for 307 yards and four touchdowns while leading the league with 23 rushing first downs gained. He’s also caught 18 of 21 targets for 156 yards and two touchdowns. To complete the three-headed monster, Amon-Ra St. Brown has hauled in 23 of 35 targets for 228 yards and five touchdowns.
The offense obviously hasn’t been the problem. It’s been all about the defense. The Lions are middle-of-the-pack in pressure rate but have racked up 12 sacks — tied for the second-most in the NFL — while blitzing at the sixth-highest rate. Unfortunately, when the pressure hasn’t gotten there, the secondary has been exposed, allowing a 69.4 percent completion rate and a 110.2 passer rating. Not having their two starting safeties is a big deal. The run defense has been just as bad, allowing 352 yards, four touchdowns, 4.4 yards per carry and 117.3 yards per game.
Carolina should feast on this defense, especially since Bryce Young has played well, averaging an NFL-best 313 passing yards per game. While he is only completing 59.5 percent of his passes, he’s thrown seven touchdowns to just two interceptions. Detroit can get pressure, but Young has been pressured the seventh-most this season and has handled it very well. Per PFF, he’s seventh in passer rating and EPA per play under pressure. He could be without one of his top receivers, though, in Jalen Coker. That would be a huge loss because Coker is an elite route runner and is better at creating separation than Tetairoa McMillan.
Carolina’s rushing attack hasn’t been great, averaging 97 yards per game, 4.3 yards per carry, and scoring only twice.
Defensively, the Panthers have been just as porous as the Lions in stopping the run. The unit anchors the NFL with 580 opponent rushing yards, six rushing touchdowns, and a whopping 5.7 yards per carry. This is either great or devastating news, depending on whether you’re a Gibbs fantasy owner.
Against the pass, Carolina has been decent. The unit has racked up three interceptions and sacks, while holding quarterbacks to a 79 passer rating and a 60.9 percent completion rate.
The path of least resistance is clear for Detroit, and Gibbs is likely to have a monster game. That said, Carolina lost both starting cornerbacks last week, so their secondary has holes, too.
Carolina should have success on offense as well, but the weather may be a factor. There’s a 47% chance of rain as of this writing, and Dave Canales said on Friday, “The whole game comes down to the run game and who can execute it better.”
Looking at the odds for Sunday Night Football, the Lions are 3.5-point road favorites with -185 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Panthers are +154 underdogs, with the game total set at O/U 50.5 points.
Below are the values that could hopefully help take you to the promised land.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL Showdown $1M Sunday Night Showdown [$250K to 1st] (DET @ CAR)
NFL DFS Value Picks for Lions vs. Panthers Week 4
WR Brycen Tremayne, Carolina Panthers ($3,900)
With Jalen Coker leaving last week’s game in the third quarter, Tremayne stepped in and caught four of six targets for 83 yards. He played 81% of the snaps and should be out there a ton in Week 4. In his three-year NFL career, the Stanford product has caught 19 of 25 targets for 241 yards. Coker is questionable and could be a game-time decision.
WR John Metchie III, Carolina Panthers ($4,800)
Metchie played 56% of snaps in Week 3 after Coker exited early. He finished with two catches on five targets for 19 yards and a touchdown. In his four-year NFL career, the Alabama product has caught 75 of 120 targets for 705 yards and four touchdowns. If Coker is ruled out, Metchie should be out there in three-receiver sets.
TE Darren Waller, Carolina Panthers ($6,600)
Waller plays only 50% of snaps, but he has 13 targets with two red-zone looks. Last week, he garnered a season-high eight targets, catching five for 51 yards. Detroit has allowed the most fantasy points to tight ends so far this season.
