Carolina Panthers vs. Detroit Lions prediction, pick for NFL Week 4 on Sunday 10/04/26

I don’t care what happens—I want Detroit to keep throwing to Jahmyr Gibbs, however excellent he is on the ground Sunday night. Carolina already surrenders an NFL-worst 144.7 rushing YPG to backs, and now the Panthers have to replace both starting corners. Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson have gone to IR and are out indefinitely; Jared Goff will have Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams working against the replacements. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for this week’s NFL game between the Carolina Panthers and the Detroit Lions.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

Panthers vs. Lions prediction, preview

Gibbs has ripped off explosive runs on 19.3% of his carries, second-best in the NFL, and a surprise to absolutely no one. Detroit also feeds him a position-leading 6.7 targets per game, which is an unusually heavy receiving assignment only Gibbs can seem to balance with his rushing explosiveness. Of the 164 scrimmage yards and three TDs he piled up against the Jets, 65 yards and a score came through the air. Carolina is going to be scrambling to get him down in both the passing and ground games.

Sam LaPorta, contract negotiations be damned, should shred this defense underneath. Detroit send him into routes on 85% of passing plays, third-highest among TEs, and Carolina just let Harold Fannin Jr. beat them for two TDs. LaPorta is set up well, here.

Carolina keeps letting Bryce Young cook—their PROE ranks fourth—and he has answered with more than 250 passing yards on at least 35 attempts in five straight games dating to last season. It’s a remarkable ascendance. Still, his numbers against Cover 3 particularly interest me here. Through 37 dropbacks against those schemes, Young’s averaged an excellent 8.67 YPA with a 114.0 passer rating; Detroit uses that coverage on 44.1% of snaps, and already surrender a league-worst 326.3 passing YPG.

Lions vs. Panthers pick, best bet

Darren Waller could make the middle of this defense awfully uncomfortable to watch. Young sent a substantial eight targets his way last week, and Detroit have hemorrhaged an NFL-worst 117 TE receiving YPG. Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph remain on PUP, D.J. Reed remains questionable, and Waller should absorb more throws because Jalen Coker will miss this game alongside Xavier Legette.

Young’s protection troubles temper my enthusiasm for Carolina keeping pace. Guard Damien Lewis is out, with tackle Monroe Freeling questionable, and the Panthers may need another demanding passing workload from their quarterback. I’m laying 3.5 with Detroit.

Best bet: Lions -3.5 (-115)

Projected score: Lions 34, Panthers 27

Best Bet: Lions -3.5 (-115) at Panthers