Recognize you not the beast we’ve created? It’s the month of franken-constructions, spiritually and spookily, and indeed, I’m staring at a team—starters and bench included—that is perhaps 20% source material from the actual draft, and 80% crudely-attached appendages like Rocket Sanders, Tyquan Thornton, Ted Hurst III, and Kenyon Sadiq. Victor Frankenstein was a boob in Shelley’s novel and even more so in Guillermo Del Toro’s adaptation (Oscar Isaac played him so well!), but I find myself channeling his scientific ambition to make gorgeous, cohesive monster out of the fractured limbs (not here referring, of course, to the 3,476 season-ending injuries through three weeks of the season) of fantasy production. I do not remember an October which—beyond the teams who drafted Gibbs and Ken Walker, or whatever—the entire fantasy board was so ripe for the taking, if only you’re sharp and willing to take ugly risks.
Happy Fantasy Friday once more—and happy season of shadows to all, now that the calendar’s turned to October. I’m here with the Five Lists of Five: Week 4 edition. Franken-lineup edition. May we maintain our humanity during this monstrous time.
For the newly-ordained: Soundbite-length blurbs with advanced analysis on my favorite plays of the week. We begin now with my Top five must-start running backs for fantasy football Week 4. Here are my other offerings in this edition:
- Top five must-start WRs for fantasy football Week 4
- Top five FLEX plays for fantasy football Week 4 (TK)
- Top five fantasy football players to stash ahead of NFL Week 4 (TK)
- Top five fantasy defenses to start for NFL Week 4 (TK)
All data provided by Fantasy Points Data Suite 2.0, unless otherwise noted.
Fantasy football Week 4: Top five running backs to start
Braelon Allen, NYJ (at Bears)
With Breece Hall out, I’m putting Braelon Allen straight into an RB2 spot. The Jets have already played Allen on 84 of the 88 offensive snaps Hall missed this season. Isaiah Davis dressed for all three games and never took an offensive snap. A full preparation week could earn Davis a few totes, but it’s wildly clear Braelon Allen is the guy in whom Aaron Glenn has his most faith. Crazy that Allen is only 22, still. Bet you’d forgotten that. I had!
Allen hasn’t run especially well, it’s true. He’s averaging 1.89 yards after contact per attempt, hasn’t produced an explosive run yet, and won’t come close reproduce Hall’s receiving efficiency merely by inheriting the route tree. Chicago, fortunately, keeps permitting backs to establish themselves before contact, surrendering 2.95 adjusted YBC/ATT, second-most in the league.
The Bears already let Aaron Jones rush for 103 yards and Chuba Hubbard score 22.2 half-PPR points against them. Geno Smith will also move this offense through Garrett Wilson and Kenyon Sadiq; Allen needn’t create every scoring opportunity himself, but I get a sense he’ll create more than we may expect. I’m buying the carries, the short catches, and first access near the goal line. It sure feels like he’s due for a banger.
Jeremiyah Love, ARI (at Giants)
Arizona started Love against San Francisco, and it was officially his advent as a feature back. They fed him five carries on the opening drive alone (plus another that a holding penalty erased!). By the end, he’d handled 80.4% of the early-down snaps and touched the ball 26 times. Mike LaFleur has accelerated the rookie’s workload each week his ankle heals. And this week, during a fantasy season when not much has been overly exciting except for the Browns’ rookie WRs, I’m so ready to start him with RB1 expectations against the Giants. Aren’t you?
Love rushed for 90 yards despite never breaking a run longer than eight. He forced four missed tackles and averaged 4.3 YPC through repeated tough sledding, moderate gain after moderate gain. New York permits 2.83 adjusted YBC/ATT, third-most, and now must defend him with Brian Burns out and an already depleted interior. I like Love to break off two explosives at least in this game.
Tyler Allgeier still has a role, particularly as a passing-down back. He still handles receiving work and has played six of Arizona’s nine goal-line snaps this season. Love did score on a first-read play-action target from the one, however. LaFleur is already designing scoring opportunities for him, and against this front, I expect Love’s talent alone to create several more.
Aaron Jones, MIN (vs. Dolphins)
Aaron Jones caught five passes against Tampa Bay, and thank goodness he did. It was an otherwise miserable rushing afternoon. He gained just 58 yards on 17 carries and finished 32 rushing yards below expectation against the Bucs defense. Minnesota kept hammering him anyway: 81.8% of the snaps and 91% of the backfield’s XFP belonged to Jones last week. With Jordan Mason on IR, the Vikings are running Jones into the ground and seeing how keeping him out there consistently helps new quarterback Kyler Murray adjust to the system.
Miami may make him work again when the Vikings run inside zone. The Dolphins allow only 1.43 adjusted YBC/ATT, third-fewest, despite surrendering the third-most fantasy production to RBs. Jones can accumulate catches and scoring opportunities, especially if Kyler Murray sustains more drives than Minnesota managed during its two-game stretch of 28% offensive success and 16.0 points per game. Murray should find less resistance from Miami’s pass rush, and Jordan Addison’s expanded involvement supplies a credible downfield threat.
Jones already accumulated 17.8 PPR XFP last week, seventh-most among backs. I’d re-rack that workload at home against Miami, and am projecting O’Connell does.
Cameron Skattebo, NYG (vs. Cardinals)
Skatt keeps making this list, man, even though the Giants are mired in a rut. Last week, Big Blue scratched Devin Singletary, then played Skattebo on every late-down and two-minute snap against Tennessee. That was new, and I’m starting him with verve and glee this week hoping he continues to get passing-down work. Across the first two games, Skattebo hadn’t taken a single two-minute snap and had played only 31.6% of third downs. Now Jameis Winston will look for him when New York needs to throw, too. Winston’s usually looking to air it out, but he knows Skattebo can churn extra yards with his break-tackle ability.
Skatt’s route share has climbed from 27% to 47% to 69% progressively through three games. Against the Titans, he caught three passes for 40 yards and accumulated 22.3 PPR XFP, even though his 20 carries produced only 60 yards. Najee Harris ran more efficiently on his nine attempts, and I can live with Harris retaining some early-down work if Skattebo keeps these passing assignments.
Arizona allows just 1.50 adjusted YBC/ATT and 17.0 receiving yards per game to RBs. They’re a less-accommodating defense than I expected coming into the season. The Giants also won’t be in a rain-soaked game in which they see a 29% neutral pass rate. A more conventional mix of runs and passes could suit Skattebo’s expanded job quite well; he finally participates in both halves of it.
Bhayshul Tuten, JAC (at Bengals)
Tuten has gained at least five yards on 46.5% of his carries, trailing only the two Rams backs in gains of such magnitude. Among RBs with more than 20 attempts, he ranks fourth in success rate and fourth in yards after contact per attempt. See all three stat points swirl into a muscular chord of three strands: he repeatedly advances the offense, and he contributes after the blocking has done its share.
Liam Coen rewarded him with a season-high 65% of Jacksonville’s backfield carries last week, excluding Ameer Abdullah’s three final-drive attempts. Tuten rushed 15 times for 73 yards and a TD, then caught both targets for another 17. Trevor Lawrence has kept the Jaguars ahead almost constantly; they’ve trailed on just 2.9% of offensive plays.
Cincinnati could force a more competitive game, and LeQuint Allen still handles passing situations. Chris Rodriguez also splits the goal-line work. Still, Cincinnati just conceded 127 rushing yards to Jaylen Warren. Tuten has cleared 65 rushing yards in every game. Fire away.
