Miami Dolphins vs. Minnesota Vikings prediction, pick for NFL Week 4 on Sunday 10/4/26

The Minnesota Vikings will play host to the Miami Dolphins on Sunday, looking to preserve their undefeated record through three weeks. As for the Dolphins, they head up to Minneapolis without a single win on their resume.

Minnesota is a ten-point home favorite on Sunday at -520 moneyline odds, while Miami has +390 moneyline odds. The game total is set at 38.5 points. Here is a preview of the Week 4 showdown featuring odds and lines from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Vikings vs. Dolphins prediction, preview

Minnesota has leaned heavily on its defense to start the year, holding opponents to the sixth-fewest yards per carry and ninth-fewest yards per pass attempt. On the whole, the Vikings defense ranks No. 5 in yards allowed per play, No. 2 in points allowed per game, No. 1 in opponents third down conversion percentage and No. 1 in opponents red zone touchdown percentage. Defensive coordinator Brian Flores has his unit blitzing on 68.4% of plays, which is the highest in the league and 23.2% higher than the next-most aggressive team. As a result, the Vikings have forced four interceptions and two forced fumbles with 14.0 sacks and 18.0 TFL through three games.

The Vikings offense is a bit more of a question mark, given Kyler Murray left with a concussion in the first quarter of Week 1. He got back on the field for Week 3, taking back over from Carson Wentz, and proceeded to complete just 51.7% of his passes for 168 yards, one touchdown and one pick. Murray is now up to two interceptions on 34 attempts in a Minnesota uniform, which is a far cry from his 2.0% rate across seven seasons in Arizona. He also boasts an 8.11% sack rate, which is approaching his 8.14% mark from his rookie year when he led the NFL with 48 sacks taken. Losing Justin Jefferson to an ankle injury this week probably won’t throw Murray off too much, though, considering he only targeted him twice in Week 3. As for veteran running back Aaron Jones Sr., his 3.9 yards per carry are a career low, but his 45 touches and 197 yards over the past two games show that there is plenty of volume to soak up with Jordan Mason on injured reserve.

Miami is, in many ways, somehow worse than their 0-3 record would suggest. They have the worst success rate margin in the league, for one. Per Stick to the Model, the Dolphins’ zero wins are still nearly two Wins Over Record, which is based on strength of schedule, turnover margin and point differential, among other factors. Miami has yet to break 13 points in any of their games this season, either.

Malik Willis is facing the third-highest pressure rate among qualified quarterbacks, which helps explain his 74.1 passer rating, 40.2 QBR, 5.3 adjusted net yards per attempt, 9.47% sack rate and 57.0% completion percentage. The one thing Willis has going for him is his escapability, helping him rack up 101 yards and a touchdown on 17 carries so far in 2026. Now that star running back De’Von Achane is out for the year, he might be the Dolphins’ best runner. Jaylen Wright is back from an injury of his own to split time with Ollie Gordon II in the backfield, although those two have combined for just 2.8 yards per touch this year. Malik Washington is Miami’s leading receiver since rookie Caleb Douglas is out with an ankle injury for the second straight week, but his 30.4% success rate leaves plenty to be desired. Rookie receiver Chris Bell isn’t much better at 36.4%.

While Miami allows the fifth-fewest yards per carry in the NFL, the 9.1 yards they give up per pass attempt are the most in football. The 48.2% third down conversion rate they’re allowing is the fifth-highest in the league, all while their scoring defense is also the fifth-worst and their red zone defense is the fourth-worst. On top of all of that, the Dolphins have not recorded a single sack so far in 2026.

Vikings vs. Dolphins pick, best bet

The Vikings offense has been pretty sporadic this year, juicing their numbers with four straight touchdowns drives against the Packers back in Week 1 but also punting on 14 of their last 20 drives. Luckily for them, drive-killing sacks aren’t the Dolphins’ forte. Miami’s league-worst pass defense should give Murray a chance to take his time and get in a rhythm, even without Jefferson on the field.

If Minnesota finds the end zone just twice, I don’t see Miami and their 12.0 points per game keeping pace. The Vikings went on the road and allowed three points to the Bears, then 16 at the Buccaneers, after all. However, Minnesota’s own inefficiencies could prevent them from truly pulling away in this one. Aaron Jones isn’t particularly explosive, Jefferson’s absence will make things tougher on Addison and T.J. Hockenson and Murray is still working his way back from a concussion. For as confident as I am about the Vikings improving to 4-0, I think the under is more likely than Minnesota covering the spread.

Predicted Score: Vikings 20, Dolphins 10

Best Bet: u38.5 (-110)