Packers vs. Falcons NFL DFS Value Picks for Thursday Night Football

The Packers are hosting the Falcons for NFL Week 3’s Thursday Night Football. Green Bay is a 4.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook, with the game total set at 42.5 points.

DraftKings is offering some huge Showdown contests for this matchup. Below, I have featured two of my favorite NFL DFS value plays to consider for this Showdown slate.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL Showdown $1.5M Thursday Night Showdown [$500K to 1st] (ATL @ GB)

Packers vs. Falcons NFL DFS Value Picks for Thursday Night Football

RB Kaleb Johnson, Green Bay Packers ($6,000 CPT, $4,000 FLEX)

After being limited to special teams in Week 1, Johnson played a notable role in the Packers’ Week 2 overtime win over the Jets. The former third-round pick out of Iowa rushed for 32 yards on 8 carries over 16 snaps. MarShawn Lloyd ($7,400) also logged 16 snaps, with six carries for 20 yards.

Johnson wasn’t used as a receiver, seeing no targets on four routes, but he was the Packers’ primary rusher in the win. Notably, Johnson was the only back in this offense to run the ball in the extra period, turning his two carries into 14 yards, which was pivotal in getting Green Bay into field goal range to win the game.

Johnson should lead the Packers’ rushing attack again on Thursday. He should see double-digit carries, with Green Bay being a 4.5-point home favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook. Johnson’s limited involvement in the passing game hurts his upside, but his $4,000 salary doesn’t reflect his expected rushing workload, making him one of the slate’s best values. Johnson’s prop lines are 10.5 carries for 38.5 yards, and he carries +210 odds to score a touchdown — all great relative to his low DFS price tag.

WR Jahan Dotson, Atlanta Falcons ($4,500 CPT, $3,000 FLEX)

While Dotson has scored only 2.9 and 3.1 FPTS in his first two games, the inept Cooper Rush was at quarterback for the Falcons in both tilts. Rush threw just one touchdown versus three picks and averaged a low 5.9 YPA in those games. Of the quarterbacks who have dropped back at least 30 times this season, Rush ranks dead last in passer rating.

Thankfully, Michael Penix Jr. ($9,000) is back and will start Thursday instead of Rush, which should be a massive boost for this offense. In his nine starts last season before tearing his ACL, Penix averaged 7.2 YPA, and he threw nine touchdowns to three picks.

All of Atlanta’s pass catchers should benefit with Penix under center, and Dotson should easily have his best game of the season on Thursday Night Football. The former first-round pick has handled a healthy role for the Falcons this season, leading the team in route rate (78%) and ranking third in target share (14.8%).

Dotson’s 13.6 aDOT is solid, and double-digit FPTS is possible.