Green Bay Packers vs. Atlanta Falcons prediction, pick for NFL Week 3 on Thursday 9/24/26

After two weeks of Cooper Rush, Atlanta still hasn’t run a play inside the opponent’s 20. Michael Penix Jr. returns Thursday off a torn ACL to helm an offense whose receivers and tight ends have combined for 173 yards total—an extraordinary waste of the talented personnel around him. For all the uncertainty accompanying Penix’s first appearance since November, at least we’ve seen him make proper use of Drake London and Kyle Pitts. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for this week’s NFL game between the Green Bay Packers and the Atlanta Falcons.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

Packers vs. Falcons prediction, preview

Across 12 games in which Penix played at least 20 snaps, Drake London was the dude. He averaged 96.8 receiving yards and 3.12 YPRR, and drew 40.2% of the first reads. I’m hesitant to automatically transcribe those averages untouched into his first game under Kevin Stefanski, especially following Penix’s second ACL tear. Still, Atlanta has an established quarterback-receiver connection to recover, and against Green Bay’s front, the offense will sooner ask London to win outside than insist Bijan Robinson carry the offense through another difficult rushing assignment. Same with Pitts. Check him for seams and outs; those are Penix’s favorites with Kyle.

The Packers, off a miraculous win in overtime against the Jets, on a short week, have allowed just 2.85 yards per rush, surrendering only two explosive runs to opposing backs. Though, Minnesota and NYJ don’t represent the crispest backfields. Their pass rush is still YOY elite, which complicates matters further for Penix. This defense generates pressure on 45.6% of dropbacks. So, yes: holding out for London to break loose downfield carries plenty of risk. Yet opponents have scored touchdowns on 85.7% of their red-zone trips against Green Bay; however unsustainable that conversion rate, the Packers haven’t consistently finished the defensive work they’ve started. The Falcons have the talent to keep pressing that shortcoming of Green Bay’s. But if the Packers somehow have the best third-down defense of their lives? I can see this getting hairy. But they have yet to do so.

Nor have they sustained much offense themselves, failing to gain a first down on 45.8% of possessions, against a league average of 29.7%. Third-down conversions should recover from four in 21 after last season’s 48.8%; Brian Flores and a wet afternoon against the Jets account for some of the decline. Matt LaFleur now has to pursue that recovery without right tackle Zach Bako-Bewele or left guard Aaron Banks, his rushing offense already averaging -0.43 EPA per attempt. They’re even thinking of shifting Tucker Kraft, one of their best offensive weapons, to a more heavy-blocking role. Allegedly. That feels a little like gamesmanship.

Falcons vs. Packers pick, best bet

Atlanta has generated pressure on 43.4% of dropbacks, but they’ve only blitzed 18.5% of the time. That’s devastating, and it’s precisely the fatal combination I’d want against those replacements. Losing certainly Samson Ebukam weakens the already-weakened Falcons rush, and with A.J. Terrell on IR, the Falcons can scarcely afford to keep borrowing defenders from coverage. Love has completed nine of 27 attempts under pressure. When the front fails to reach him, though, Atlanta’s replacement corners face Christian Watson and Matthew Golden, who are both as hot as they’ve yet been to begin this year.

I can see Green Bay winning through those outside matchups while struggling to string together enough scoring possessions to pull away. Penix reconnecting with London and Pitts—even imperfectly—makes Atlanta wildly better equipped to answer than it was with Rush. At +4.5, I’ll accept the uncertainty of that return against a favorite replacing two offensive linemen. My projection lands at Packers 23, Falcons 20. Both quarterbacks will find a few explosive completions tonight, I prefer Atlanta’s points to under 42.5, but only by a hair.

Best bet: Falcons +4.5 (-105)

Best Bet: Falcons +4.5 (-105) at Packers