Best Michael Penix Jr. Prop Bet for Falcons at Packers on Thursday 9/24/26

Injuries are always part of the NFL, but several teams have been particularly hard-hit at quarterback already. The New York Giants’ Jaxson Dart is already done for the season, and the Washington Commanders’ Jayden Daniels looks as if he’ll miss extended time as well.

However, no team has had it as rough as the Atlanta Falcons. Tua Tagovailoa would’ve entered the season as the starter with Michael Penix Jr. still on the shelf after tearing his ACL last November, but he sustained an oblique injury before the season opener, forcing Atlanta to turn to third-stringer Cooper Rush. Rush performed so poorly that he was benched for undrafted rookie Jack Strand, who was even worse.

The quarterback carousel looks as if it’ll finally come to an end tonight when the Falcons travel to face the Green Bay Packers in an 8:15 p.m. ET Thursday Night Football clash. Penix has been cleared to return after his injury, and he’ll take over the reins with Tagovailoa likely as his backup.

Even with Penix back, Atlanta is a 4.5-point underdog for tonight’s matchup at DraftKings Sportsbook (+195 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 42.5. Green Bay is -238 on the Moneyline.

Below, I’ve detailed my favorite prop bet centered around the southpaw.

Best Michael Penix Jr. Prop Bet on DraftKings Sportsbook

Michael Penix Jr. U205.5 Passing Yards (-112)

Even before his injury, Penix didn’t show much in either of his first two NFL seasons to suggest that he’s anywhere near a starting-caliber quarterback. In five games (three starts) as a rookie, he completed 58.1% of his passes for 775 yards, three touchdowns, and three interceptions, and in nine starts in his second season, he went 166-for-276 (60.1%) for nine touchdowns and three picks. He ranked fourth-to-last among qualified quarterbacks in completion percentage, 15th in success rate, 24th in passer rating, and 18th in QBR. Part of it was the result of his aggression — he ranked eighth in intended air yards per passing attempt — but he also had the highest bad throw percentage and the seventh-lowest on-target percentage. It’s hard to imagine he’ll look much better after a 10-month layoff.

The Packers aren’t exactly the easiest opponent. Green Bay held Geno Smith to just 136 passing yards in the Week 2 overtime victory over the New York Jets, and it allowed the 10th-fewest passing yards in the league both last season and so far in 2026. The Packers also posted the ninth-best coverage grades at Pro Football Focus last season, and although they’ve taken a step back to 20th so far in 2026, Keisean Nixon finished near the top quartile last season and has allowed just a 60.9 passer rating so far. Safeties Evan Williams and Javon Bullard have also allowed a sub-60 passer rating on their targets, and Xavier McKinney is a two-time All-Pro selection. Green Bay had a comparatively poor run defense last season, so Tommy Rees might be better off running the ball through Bijan Robinson than asking Penix to pass.